Still BULLISH on BITCOIN?

Hey guys and welcome back to Box Mining. So this weekend has been a little bit more than brutal with Bitcoin plummeting down to around 40,000, depending on some exchanges, 42,000 US dollars all the way from 57. So yikes, that was a very savage dip. And right now it's Monday here and we're seeing that slow recovery. And another question on everyone's mind is that are we still in a bull market? Are we on our way up still? Because that weekend was pretty darn brutal. So in this video, what we're going to take a look at are some key statistics on what happened here and what are some of my expectations going forward because I'm actually super bullish. In fact, this weekend, most of my time was dedicated to not just crying about the market, but actually to move USD funds to buy the literal dip. I feel like it's a situation that a lot of new people coming into the space, they don't really expect something this savage so fast, even though we talked about it in our last video. Now, that being said, excitement aside, I do expect that along the way we're going to have these massive dips. All right. So this is the price is going down and then gradually coming up. And you guys have seen this before. This is the infamous Bart Simpson pattern where the price dips, tries to stabilize and then moves back up again. And this is nearly happens every single bull run. A lot of people on this weekend are like, are you all right? Is Bitcoin over? I'm reading this news. Bitcoin dropped to like $40,000. And actually, by that time already, it was $48,000. It pretty much started to recover its way to recovery by then. But that's how mainstream media works. And I expect mainstream media to continue to try to bury Bitcoin for the rest of the next three days. Roughly, that's, I mean, mainstream media, right? So anyways, rambling aside, let's talk about what happened. Then we'll talk about some expectations for what's happening and some new information regarding institutional investors. And where I think this bull market is going to go. So without further ado, make sure you click the like button down below. Click the subscribe button. You know, all that good stuff. And let's get started. And as always, guys, everything covered in this video is my personal opinion. This is not financial advice. I'm not a financial advisor. Starting off with what the hell happened. Why? Why do we have such a savage dump? So I brought up the Bitcoin chart here. This is Bitcoin USD. And you can see on December the 4th, we had one of the most savage red candles in, well, recent memory, so to speak. So it started with Bitcoin first just dropping from $56,000 over a few hours to $52,000. Sure, it's not too much of a big deal. But suddenly, this red candle took Bitcoin all the way down to $41,000. So what happened there? And this is very common in crypto. It's caused by a series of liquidations. So what happens is that when traders expect the market to go up, they'll be taking long positions. And the problem here is that if they take leverage longs, unfortunately, they can't get liquidated. So this is exactly what happened in the state where there's a chain of liquidations. So if people who are on, say, 15x leverage or 20x leverage, they get liquidated. They cause a literal sell order at that price. And the sell continues and causes a cascade reaction to happen. And it triggers more people to get liquidated. So I guess congrats to anyone who managed to buy at $41,000. So anyone who was placing a buy order at this time, congrats to you. But unfortunately, people did have to bleed for that. Those are the extreme traders, people taking on leverage. Now, another way to see this in action and what happens with these liquidations is you can go to funding rates. So if you look at funding rates right now, they're mostly in the negatives. So previously, they're in the positives. And especially in a bull market, we generally see them in the strong positives where traders expect it to go up. They take on long positions. They move that to the positive. But now we're seeing the negative happen, which is a sign that liquidations have happened. There are more shorts than longs in this current market. It's also important to kind of regard this market a little bit differently, too. So previously speaking, we've been looking a lot. So we've generally been looking at view base for the past two years a lot. And we've been seeing the kind of the magnitude and the depth of the color. So if you look at view base here, if it's extremely green, we're very careful of possible liquidations. This season or these few months, we don't really see that as much. I feel like what's happening here is that these markets, they have a lot more arbitrage opportunities available. And a lot more funds are taking opportunities of funding rates. And they kind of short the other side when traders are long. So we don't really see that intensity of longs. They still exist, but we don't see them as much. But what we do see now is that we see the results of these shorts. And these shorts are placed here by people who are kind of arbing the market over the weekend. And what I do expect is that for at least for the funding rates right now, I expect these to kind of chill out to become zero over time. Something you can also see on FTX exchange is that lending rates are at an all-time low as well. So this is a sign that people have been liquidated. Their positions are just wiped out. It's very, very unfortunate. But you can see the effects of this. Like net lending rates are around 2% right now for USDC and 5% for USDT. So yeah, before we're seeing like $12.50, which is great. And that was what I was happy about because I can save money there and just be happy getting some yield. Now, not so much. On that note as well, a short plug. If you haven't got an FTX account yet, you should definitely consider getting one. The line to get one right now is roughly being reported to be around 2 to 3 weeks to even get an account because of just how many people are signing up. So if you're thinking about trading and taking this seriously, FTX is definitely an option for you. And also I have a video guiding of why you should switch to FTX because I've done that like around 2 years ago and been pretty happy with it. So yeah, there we go. Now let's talk about a little bit about the expectations. So yes, we did see the Savage dump. We're kind of recovering all the way back up. So Bitcoin right now is roughly sitting at $48,989 and the recovery hasn't been as fast as people could have potentially anticipated to be. Because if it was a true liquidation, a lot of times we see a familiar Bart Simpson pattern where the prices move up causing these kind of Bart Simpson wavy hairstyles that we've seen for a long time in crypto. So right now over the weekend, what we saw is that the prices were very much stagnant. So Bitcoin kind of moving between around $46,000 and $48,000. So it hasn't really pushed all the way back up to $55,000, $54,000. It's not really pushing back up to its original state before the huge plunge. So there's definitely a lot of uncertainty in this market. And a lot of it, you see on mainstream media, a lot of it are like saying, oh, it's because of a new COVID variant. Oh, Micron. Oh my God. It's a... Okay. We've seen this before, honestly. If it's purely because of COVID, I'd actually anticipate Bitcoin going up even more. Reason being is because last time we heard about COVID happening, sure, Bitcoin dumped for the first few days. And then people realize, oh my God, we need an international form of currency, especially if borders are closing down. And the second reason is if there is another COVID variant, very likely there's going to be heavier inflation. So these two reasons pushed Bitcoin all the way up. So I really don't see that as a reason for pushing us down this time. I expect the market to be a little bit smarter to realize, yes, anything related to COVID means things like Bitcoin, luxury watches, and stocks are going to go up. So I anticipate that this market is still just kind of recovering. They're still a little bit hesitant to go forward. Now, I do actually see a lot of strong reasons. So it's kind of interesting. After my last video, people just messaged me privately. They're like, you know, are you serious? Are you still super bullish? Is that hope meme or is that real bullish? And I always answer them. It's always real bullish. It's actually the truth. I'm super bullish at this time. Now, the reason for that is because the institutional investors are coming in. It's I know like 2017, you know, one of the people reasons people wanted the bull market to push even more to have a perpetual bull market is that this rumored institutional investors are coming. Right. Institutions are coming. So, yes, that was 2017. And we're very, very and very skeptical about anything that say talks about institutional investors. However, that being said, right now, there are a lot of people in Hong Kong asking about Bitcoin. So a lot of my professional friends, both lawyers and bankers are all asking about Bitcoin because why? Because they're friends. In fact, the people that they work for are asking about it. Lawyers are asking because big funds that they represent or family offices that they represent are looking to invest into Bitcoin. And they're looking about issues related to money laundering or issues related to kind of all that shady stuff that could go on in crypto. They want to make sure it's clean before they give the go ahead for the family offices to invest. The same thing goes with bankers. Bankers are now looking to actively get help funds get into crypto and Bitcoin, Bitcoin cryptocurrencies. And we see that industry shift as well with a lot of more kind of every product that we see, like, say, for example, Twitter or, for example, MasterCard or they're building out institution ways for retail to come in. So now the more the thought is that the institutional investors are getting in general public, not so much at this current point, but institutional investors are getting in before retail comes in. So what does that mean? Well, if you look at the interest for Bitcoin over time, you actually see that right now Bitcoin interest not so great. In fact, I've been anticipating or hoping for even more retail interest where everyone searching about Bitcoin, learning about Bitcoin. But it does seem to be the case right now that a lot of people are still skeptical and we don't have the main pushes that we've seen, like, in 2017. So say, for example, you take this back to like five years ago, you can see these giant spikes that happened in 2017, right? Towards this December months, there were these huge spikes that people got a lot of interest. This season is very different. So general public, yes, they are more interested in Bitcoin than a baseline. Say, for example, baseline 2017 or the baseline 2019 numbers, but definitely not hitting those 100 numbers as before. In fact, every full bull market that we see, we generally see Bitcoin kind of 3 or 10Xing the general interest that they had before. So honestly, I would expect if this is the full bull market, the Bitcoin search rating to be kind of eclipsing that of 2017, like 10 times more. I'll make this look like 10% and we'll have a real 100% candle over here. So why is that? Well, obviously, general public is still a little bit weary about Bitcoin. Mainstream media, mainstream news is still very skeptical about it. However, like I said, institutional investors are getting in because they see this opportunity. And what's more important is that they have the access to more retail investors. So this is kind of sad because I think, you know, coming from retail, coming from a Bitcoin enthusiast background, I would say I want the retail to win. In this case, I want everyone to win and I want the bankers to lose. But unfortunately, we do know that bankers have a great access to a huge audience. And very unfortunately, I would say that when retail does come in, it's very likely that institutional investors will sell at that point. So that's the candid truth. I feel like the institutional investors, they are, you know, they're very likely going to dump at a certain point. And that is when we have kind of the Bitcoin interest, the general search interest of Bitcoin, probably outscaling that of 2017. Now, what does this all mean? So let's go back to a chart that we visited a lot in the past, which is the Bitcoin rainbow chart. So the Bitcoin rainbow chart, this starts all the way from 2012. And it's a log-worthy chart. So it kind of puts everything into scale. But it's kind of funny to look at it. So you can see the two of the previous bull markets here. So the one in 2014 and the one in 2017. And you can see that the prices kind of fall within these rainbow bands. Currently, right now, yes, we are moving up. And we're in the middle of the band here. And I do believe that if past history repeats itself, then we can potentially see $20,000 for the price of Bitcoin going forward. So that's the peak of the cycle, so to speak. Now, it's interesting because I would expect us to hit this a little bit sooner, to be honest, because of just how in the past, December and October months were really strong because of that fun family interaction. This year, not so much. This year, I feel like the momentum for general public has not reached the peak yet, which means that we could be going sideways until maybe even mid-next year, which is going to be crazy if you think about it. Because that means it gives Bitcoin even more opportunity to go up. Ethereum more opportunity to go up. So it's, yeah, the longer this cycle lasts, the more crazy potentially it can get, especially as the infrastructure and industry grows. That's going to be some scary numbers that we're going to see in the future. So I definitely see us hitting past around $100,000 for the price of Bitcoin going upwards to even $200,000 or $400,000, which is going to be insane. However, I do expect us to have bigger bumps along the way as well. So if you thought that the last week was savage, I can definitely tell you it can get even worse than that. So, yeah, I'm bracing myself. I feel like the recovery for this, at least this Bart Simpson pattern is not as strong as it could have been. So I do feel like there's still a little bit of even fear at the higher levels here. So if this was just true of liquidation that we've seen, I expect the prices to go up a little bit faster. But this is not the case. And the market is still extremely hesitant. So that means that we could expect a second, maybe an aftershock after this. And then maybe it will take two to three weeks to have the full bullish momentum come in. So this is where, you know, this is what always happens in crypto, where a bunch of people buy longs and just push the price up. So anyways, it's going to be a fun ride. Anyways, what we're going to do here in the channel in the future is talk a little bit more about some expectations and thoughts. Right now, I am in the buying mood. So I've spent the past few days buying, deployed actually a lot more capital than I usually deploy, which is, I think, a good sign for me anyways. I feel the extreme bullishness set in. And I'm looking for even four or five months of bullish momentum in the future. But yet again, be a little bit wary of these flash dumps. The other thing I'm looking a lot at is obviously gaming. So gaming finally took off. I've been looking at this for the past four years or so, finally getting some light of day. Obviously, what I said at the very start about gaming is definitely true, where gaming can bring the masses, which is 2 billion people, into crypto. And one of the games I've recently invested in is Metagots. And the reason I'm doing so is because it's so easy to join and play the game and play to earn as well. So the game itself, it's a retro style game. It's kind of remiss. A lot of my childhood is very easy to understand. You're playing a 2D character, which is an NFT, and you go around exploring dungeons and shooting bosses. Now, after you shoot down bosses and you can work with your friends to do so as well, you can get epic loot and sell that on the secondary market or on the NFT trading scene. Now, what's interesting about this game is the social aspect. It's kind of based on this kind of shoot them up bullet hell type of game. And you can get a lot of people to explore dungeons with you. And I feel like that's kind of the next level for any sort of blockchain game. Because if you can get friends along as well, if you can get 5, 10, 20, 30 people to raid and attack a boss, very much like World of Warcraft style, that is going to be super fun. And on top of that, because of the way technology has shifted, what Metagots is doing is they're actually pushing towards this kind of very casual space where you can just click a button, click a link on your Discord, on your Twitter to just join the game, play with friends, have fun, and earn together. So, yeah, I'm pretty excited. I'm pretty excited for this virality coming in. I hope that you guys are interested. The DAP is coming soon. So I hope you guys can check it out. I'll put the link down below as well. Anyways, guys, I hope this video was helpful for you to see where my thoughts are, where I think things are happening. If you guys like videos like this, leave a comment down below. And obviously type what your expectations and what your thoughts on the market is as well. And with that, guys, thank you guys so much for watching. See you next video.