Market RECOVERING - Are We Really BACK?!

all right we're live boys welcome to Alpha Drop my name is Ron Martin here and today the market has been recovering very slowly as you can see we have Bitcoin at $80,206 ETH $1,591 and Solana $111 yes which begs to differ so slight recovery I think a lot of the volatility is sort of ending and I think still most people are afraid that there's going to be one last flush I think people might think you know this whatever recovery we have is sort of like a dead cat bounce so in this video just watch if you want to get our take on the situation on the market in terms of high time frame what key levels to break for BTC ETH and and Sol in order for them to continue on to new all-time highs we'll look into that okay all right so what has been the news lately okay so yeah so much bloodbath over the past two weeks we saw Solana under $100 it was at $96 super scary so yesterday last night Hong Kong time it was around 10 p.m. so the rumors emerged that the White House was considering a 90-day tariff pause CNBC reported that Trump is considering a 90-day pause on tariffs for all countries except for China the SNP as a result of that news added over three trillion dollars in market cap from its low that's like a lot of money in a matter of minutes but then shortly afterwards reports emerged from the White House that they were unaware of Trump considering a 90-day pause then CNBC reports that the 90-day tariff pause headlines were incorrect the White House officially called the tariff pause headlines fake news and then it sort of wiped a little bit of the gains that they have right but so far for a bit for crypto looking all right we're having a slight recovery a little bit of co-pium but you need to watch out for what's going to come there's a potential move that might happen let's prepare for that I just remember none of this is financial advice this is purely for educational purposes this is our take our opinion never use our thoughts and opinion as a signal too long or short okay all right on top of that the based on yesterday Trump threatened additional 50% tariffs on China this is big news I think there's gonna be a little bit more volatility I think tonight Hong Kong time because that's when America will be Tuesday morning so I think one more shock it could be in line with what's going to be happening this means 20% plus 34% plus 50% tariffs on China for a total of 104% US imports total of 439 billion from China per year China has until April 8th to drop their 34% tariff on China or President Trump says these tariffs will go live oh my god pointing a gun at China's head you have until April 8th to respond so today is April 8th Hong Kong I think 12 hours later that'll be April 8th for US so watch out for this I think one more shockwave to watch out for okay so let's take stock of the situation right now for BTC for ETH for Seoul and for BTC dominance and others okay and we can see clearly what is going on so for BTC all right I think a lot of people especially on CT really wants to see the retest of 72 K before a move towards upwards right they think that this is a clean break as you can see they and we have previously thought that this break right here was no man's land it was just continuing to go up so it it does make sense to retest 72 K however upon reviewing close getting a closer look and the four hour it's not really necessary to get that retest of the 72 K because we did have slight consolidation for three to four days around 74 to 76 K region which we have already retested twice right once on March 11 and then another time yesterday and yesterday was a hell of a move we went to web three conference web three festival in Hong Kong you know nobody was smiling no one was smiling everyone was looking at their phone right the booth babes weren't smiling even the booth babes were not smiling so in terms of high time frame for BTC what we're looking here right we've already explained that the top for BTC is definitely not over we explained this yesterday in the box mining stream the z-score still not even close to over uh overbought for BTC uh the pie cycle top is not even close for the moving average to cross and then and if you're if you're not a fan of technical analysis if we're looking at liquidity right the m2 global money supply is increasing and it's actually at an all-time high this year and it's expected to increase even more to i think 127 trillion dollars by the end of this year so more and more money injecting into the economy and there's more money in the economy of course the appetite for risk on assets is very very hungry right but in terms of the price action for BTC what do we have to look out for here so eventually this area will want to get swept right towards 95 somewhere above 90 right so somewhere between 90 to 95k this is that order block right here so any eventual pumps that we have and i think we're seeing the start of this now could lead towards there but the fear of that is uh and i think a lot of people on ct are also agreeing is that once this area gets swept we might see just chop down again and then retest down towards there very complicated right like is this something that could actually happen is that really possible maybe who knows but what we do know is that any pumps that we're seeing right now this is a good target 90 to 95k now you might be asking me ron what about you know are we really going to see all-time high this year for for btc are we going to see new all-time highs can we break 109k now for that to happen we need to see 104k this key level flipped okay we need to see this level flip before going towards new all-time high this is that clear right it's very clear right why because too huge swing failure right here right so there's a lot of liquidity there and if this area gets retested respected respected then much confidence for btc's price action in terms of short term when that move comes right but for the time being any pumps that are happening now don't expect it to see a new all-time high until this area gets retested and then flip then continuation onwards for now my expectation of a pump is max uh target would be 90 to 95k in the short term okay uh if we don't see continuation towards 104k retest that area uh retest flip continuation then i'm expecting choppiness below that range anywhere inside these ranges right here am i clear all right now in terms of eath and i see anita cho says eath has returned home yeah i think you've seen benjamin cowan's um tweet right where he he drew that band and eath has come back home actually let me try to find it eath welcome home uh another comment over here by cherrywell eath is homeless eath is homeless it's only not even home right now uh yesterday where was that tweet oh eath can go to the basement mm-hmm yeah right here welcome home ethereum right so this is all all right this is good this is actually soothing because now we know that the ultimate low is inside these bands right here but it's still so much room to play it's very dangerous if you're not very precise with where you want to enter or dca accordingly so what are my thoughts on eath right now it's very very clear it's like for a continuation upwards towards new all-time high for the time being and i hate to say this is invalidated unless 3k gets reclaimed okay the 3k level the three thousand dollar level gets reclaimed oh my god it's all the way up here until this area gets reclaimed i'm not going to be talking about oh we're going to see new all-time high for eath i really want to see that coming bro my alt bags depend on it okay i'm sure you guys holding your alts really want to see eath doing its thing but we really hate eat so much right now because of how eath has been performing oh my god yesterday was a bloodbath it dipped all the way to 1 4 16 a lot of respectable traders i know were opening a scalp long and they still got stopped out some even with isolated margin position got liquidated we know who right but it's a small money um but it's very hard to time what eat is doing right now for the time being don't catch the falling knife but yes you can do scalp plays just make sure you manage your risk well so in terms of high time frame what are we looking at okay we're going through step by step step one it's very important to reclaim two thousand dollar level first okay you can see this area right here is where we broke down we got rejected we broke down right so baby steps baby steps i want to see two thousand dollar get reclaimed first then we can have the conversation of can we see uh the mid-range being at 2500 can that area be reclaimed right oh yes i forgot to show you about this let's go back to btc first so uh with expectation of the thumbnail of this video right one last flush you need to be careful if uh tonight if it's going to be shaky if uh the situation between uh trump and china is going to be shaky that flush could happen towards 72k and this is in fact also in line with the void or down here the void between 70k towards 74k so recently i really like using this specific indicator uh liquidity buy side liquidity and sell side liquidity but inside that indicator the liquidity void is really good because uh more often than not almost like 90 percent this area always gets filled so yesterday we only tapped into the top part of that void so maybe this area could get filled now it's not a hundred percent that it must get filled but based on historical performance uh the void likely wants to get filled because there's so much uh there's very little disagreement between buyers and sellers here right and i think a lot of the big players if they're looking to long btc they place their limits around here for dca purposes right so that would be the move that you guys need to prepare for okay don't just aimlessly open a cross margin long right now and thinking that we're going up towards 95k yes exactly you need to watch out for this void right here be very careful this move this area could get filled uh and i want to see a good reaction from this area eventually just bounce back up right i really don't want to see the max pain of 55 was it 52 to 49k this is the golden pocket the last time we saw 618 fibonacci level got re re-tested was the last bull cycle when china announced their ban on crypto right let me show you uh all time history index turn this off first we'll look at the weekly yeah last bull cycle 2021 and this was around the time i got into crypto around march 2021 btc i remember was like 50 something k my friend said buy btc and i bought some btc at 50k yeah and then next week china announced ban on crypto and then boom in two weeks it flushed all the way to 29k i remember i remember this day you remember that day right and i told my friend yo is this normal how is it that every time i buy something back then it just goes to the next week right so that area the 618 was retested in the last cycle right so just this is the max pain for btc i think throughout all of the cycles 618 is highly respected for btc and that hence why that's the max pain area for btc so um if you see people saying that ah they're they're they think all right let's go back they think that btc is going to want to retest 52k 49k it's not delusional thinking they're basing their thesis that this that area is the 618 fibonacci level for btc so that's the max pain okay who's your friend uh confidential it's confidential it's actually a founder of an exchange one of the one of the founders yeah all right okay x okay x hey how are you what do you do hey how are you what do you do that's that's the that's the summary of web3 festival yeah hey oh you watch our videos thank you man thank you selfie hey how are you what do you do a bit of an inside joke here yep okay so for btc watch out for that void for the time being this is the most uh sure thing that we can anticipate is if there's going to be a uh if this in fact is a dead cat bounce and we'll we'll see continuation to the downside then 70 70 to 74k is an area that could get filled but i am expecting a good reaction from here but that's in the future we do not know okay so plan accordingly and for eth right so if we are gonna look at the voids uh there's no void down there okay there's no void on the daily there's a lot of void on the upside so yes these areas will get filled sometime in the future i'm sure you see this on ct2 any bull post for eth targeting 2.5 that's because there's uh the voids here and they will get filled in the future up towards 3.6 i really hope that's the case right but for the time being if btc reacts uh if that void gets filled for btc seeing 70 to 74k i might expect eth to also tap back to 1.1 i don't know this looks tricky because uh we've already retested a lot of the previous ob's in 2023 i did not expect to see break below 1750 which was very worrying yesterday very worrying so for the time being we're not even reclaiming back into the 1750 order block so uh yeah i really hate to say this but maybe you know it's in no man's land maybe it'll like stall here i really hope that's the case stall somewhere here rather than just keep going down man you know like mr president too much winning my alts crying you know mr president and also vitalik what's vitalik doing yeah why is he barking at a robot dog i know we saw the same dog yesterday yeah in the web3 festival right apparently vitalik's in hong kong but oh yeah yeah i don't know where he is right now cz also yeah so yeah okay let's see uh one three maybe this week also that's the max pain somewhere in these levels but i uh you know structurally speaking the we've already gone through the worst of it but the problem now is it's we're actually very far away quite far away from reclaiming the 2k level that we so want okay so in terms of eth uh yeah our first objective is we want to see 2k get reclaimed right okay otherwise uh no no point being bullish on eth for the time being i really want to okay but that's what the market is telling us we'll see we'll see maybe we see e uh whales accumulating eth very quietly we'll see how this goes we'll see how this goes it's time eth it's time for you to leave home okay go get a job go get a job exactly get a wife you know get some uh be productive make some kids you know layer two or the kids pump the kids layer two okay uh in terms for soul soul structure is actually pretty clean uh in terms of high time frame it is the same as btc right it is the same as btc we're still in the fibs for soul for eth we're not we're like way below in the in the fib right but in terms of the structure soul is acting like btc okay so yesterday was scary because we saw a break below 100 but uh um it it recovered slightly now for soul what areas do we want to look out for is uh for bull case scenario 135 is essential to reclaim for a continuation upwards but as you can see we're on a lower high lower low structure since the all-time high near 300 right um so what i'm thinking is if btc finds its all-time high then maybe we can see soul also cracking 300 easily melting through it like butter and then find new all-time highs around like 400 or 500 that's actually not uh delusional thinking or visual thinking i can see soul going higher okay uh that's just my thought but in terms of short term what do we have to look out for for low time frame let's see uh one hour oh it's actually the one day my bad my bad okay so maybe okay maybe if this is a dead cat bounce you see that void down there between 79 and 77 that could get filled but i don't want to see that getting filled but you know looking at the candlestick right now we're pretty close towards that void right there so if it hits there we better sell our houses yeah and buy soul yeah because soul is gonna be very very cheap yeah i don't want to hit i don't want it to hit there but it could be maybe who knows but just prepare for that scenario i think if btc fills that void here then it's likely yeah uh soul could also fill that void uh retesting into the 80s is also quite likely but uh yeah prepare for that scenario um in terms of the four hour let's see you can see there's so much disagreement or sorry very little disagreement between buyers and sellers in these areas so why these voids occur for specific time frames is because a major moves during those areas so 250 large liquidity void you see that candle there's almost no wick here so some point in the future that area will want to get filled uh so watch out for that right so it's gonna be nice so same thing for soul 262 huge swing failure pattern this area needs to get retested and reclaimed and flipped for new all-time high same thing as btc at 104k so the correlation between soul and btc are actually pretty pretty tight all right eth i don't know what the you're doing there like you're second largest in market cap but how are you not the same structure as the ones that are lower than you in terms of market cap so we're in a very weird spot right here okay all right so let's i think tonight will be the one last uh volatility ish move right the the trump threatening uh china to respond uh until yeah until april 8th to drop their 34 percent tariff uh so looking at this volatility snp 500 index this is actually a very useful tool to get a gauge of uh the fear and breed market index in a way like in terms of duration right because as you can see the last time we had that huge of a spike was august 2024 which was the israeli war conflict right it spiked up to 62k i'm sorry 62k 62 percent now we're also around that area but the thing about this is that these uh huge spikes towards the upside um comes down very very fast so we're looking at the weekly right here the last time that it came down it only took two weeks for the volatility of the s p 500 index to come down so i'm thinking maybe also we can expect the same for uh what's happening right now so maybe one to two week for this uh vix to come down towards these regions where we want it to be right like like it man no more noise in in the market i just want uh the market to start making sense and do its thing so then we can dollars 79k oh yeah damn did you remember it bro did you remember two to three months ago i forgot how long that was yeah but we were just clapping because we caught it live when bitcoin hit a hundred thousand oh yeah right remember that yeah that was a nice live stream now now we're back at 79 people aren't as happy everyone here is not as happy i think a bunch of people are touching grass but we have 62 viewers right now let us know what your thoughts are yeah down below and yeah this is a good chart to refer to exactly so yeah keep an eye on this one for the next two weeks for vix now another thing to note and i think a lot of people here want to know yo ron what about the alts now i think we're coming very close to max pain for alts this is a good news we need to soldier through this weather this rough weather this pain that we're suffering together trust me my alts are down 67 68 so it's really really rough all right but inside this weekly v-shape reversal order block could be a potential demand zone for alts and this is actually in line with btc's dominance right so everyone's eyeing on the btc dominance uh it's likely we can get 65 percent very likely actually some people like arthur hayes saying that 70 percent is likely to be also a target for btc's dominance this year that could be the case but in any case right if btc's dominance goes up and up and up and up you just need to know that whenever btc dominance is up alt dominance gets lower so alts will bleed so if you see a tweet like beam talking about uh how can you understand uh us sorry btc dominance compared to alts why alts are still in the shitter right now right any charts that they make on the high time frame lines just point down is because of the dominance of btc and the others so what i'm thinking is at some point this will get exhausted and we're in alt season right this is when btc whales will want to also look for more opportunities in alt coins just like in 2021 but for that to happen the dominance needs to come to come down so maybe if we do hit 65 or even max scenario 70 percent once that does come down to where it's here uh the dominance of others could go up but look at this look at how closely related it is we're not at 65 yet we're at 63 you see the room here you see that room right there it's same room as the others dominance right here so if we see something like this 65 we will see others tap into below seven percent yikes that's really bad right um but if dominance comes down down down down down down we'll see others going up up up up up okay all right let me around with this one too so you can see they have a void all right just use this as a reference you can even use this for indexes as a reference but not as entry there's a large void at 14 to yeah 14 percent others dominance so you've been watching us for the past year you know that uh how i'm going to be selling my alts is if we get all dominance above uh 12 that's when i'll start to unload my position into stables and then just wait for the next bear cycle and then just buy in from there again rinse repeat this is what uh the the smart players are doing right but the looks like 14 could be a potential for all season this this cycle right if there's going to be an all season uh beam thinks that september will be the time where money will rotate to alts so i think that's also quite feasible beam right here has made so much money he's thinking like a hedge fund now he's looking at really high time frame and just being very risk adverse and if he being very risk averse if he thinks that all season will come in september then i'll take his word for it right so don't rush it be very patient i think the key here and uh i've learned this the hard way is just be very very patient if you're gonna be uh aping big bags into alts you really want to be aping in these levels like down here so our mistake is that we've been loading up on all between the 10 to 12 percent here so we got trapped right and it's just seeking new floor for these alts that's why our alts are down bad so if you're watching this now now you know what to do in the next cycle years from now how you're gonna be rotating your money between btc eth and other alts okay so i hope that it clears up for you guys okay now let's answer some questions man been a been a while been a hot while aj del santo says just sold the bottom i'm gonna wait for the top to buy again strategy i like that i like that technology um i'm stacking up for a ride in the basement heath is down bad because fatality got nerfed irl girlfriend patch notes removed his op focus buff whoa it really do be like that man it really do be like that uh do you have video for mega eth no we're not doing a video for mega eth because we heard that they're not really a not not a scam but not like a high value project because of how insanely high they're listing their nfts it's crazy like how much was it one uh 10 eth or some it's crazy uh but yeah we'll see we'll see we're not gonna ignore that either but yeah i think nothing of valuable to uh cover for mega eth for the time being yeah uh that's yeah if you guys want a video just let us know hello wookie airdrops how's it going what's up hey what's up gabby it's been a while i haven't seen you see bxg chasing finally caught a live stream nice to see you bro hey what's up man uh i need a show we're waiting for you to come to hong kong yeah man our room is right there it's actually fully furnished right now yes uh lots of couches there's a massage chair yeah you just need to take your shoes off you just need to take your shoes off so yeah man waiting for you i need a show aka beta bot jeff sparrow says my portfolio not good what best to farm airdrop a you already know go to airdroplet and see what's popping check out twitter monitor too twitter monitor we've been adding quite a few projects uh in the monitored section and this is really good it turns out stake stone already had airdrop checker so if you've been playing with manta in the past as well as other e3 staking products i think you should qualify for the stake stone airdrop and also this is a new feature the news right so this is actually where we found out about the stake stone so every i think day i think we change it to every day now there's going the ai will generate a report based on what is the most talked about uh airdrop topics it goes by search so most search volume goes in there yeah so the recent one looks like monadverse and ronin blitz dominate airdrop discussions yeah a lot of buzz about monadverse and ronin oh what's this ronin blitz campaign very interesting offering a three million token reward pool okay over for defy activities okay i see but look it's so good right if quick news about airdrops uh check it out uh yeah i see i see i see anita cho is asking about uh do you think we will dump or should i load up now no financial advice i think if you like for me can dca small amounts uh okay for alts not even dca right now because we don't have confirmation of upwards i think we're just waiting for this box to get filled so i can tell you this just right now i think over the past two months i still don't feel the appetite for buying alts i haven't actually bought any alts for the past uh six months actually all just been trading right now for the time being and this is where we're getting a lot of value from trading with orb and one percent risk you compound that money so but from an investment standpoint i think it's just scary right now even though yes a lot of alts are cheap but we don't know that if that's really the bottom for alts like look at injective dude this is crazy injectives high was 53 dollars think about it now it's seven dollars dude right my average buy for injective was 33 so let that sink in right so just wait you can see also this indicator showing us there's a sell-side liquidity at five dollar forty cents on the weekly so we can see injective potentially rating that then we can see how it reacts from there for injective so for the time being i've generated the most value purely just from trading btc not not hodling just holding in stables first i'm building my position so that when we do get confirmation for an all season that's when i'll start loading up on alts and then expect maybe like even two to three x is all right it's fine for for my position uh there can be 10 x's 100 x's but those are very rare to find especially this cycle now it's very different from last uh cycles all season okay yeah yes wait in the basement wait for the storm to clear very very very uh rough weather right now very very rough weather i think if there's only one dca play right now truly it's just btc uh and soul soul's actually not bad but soul is like a much riskier version compared to btc so i think for now anything that was in all-time high territory this year right btc soul soy these are worth dcaing right now but for the other alts that are already broken below their fib and just searching for new lows it does not it's stupid to be dcaing on those tokens okay yeah agreed with that yes base base does anyone here from philippines can access air droplet i think it should be you should be able to access it yes we see in the admin we have uh quite a lot of viewers from uh quite a lot of visitors from philippines accessing air droplet but uh if dax says he cannot access air droplet i will check that out but there's uh i think 98 percent uh visitor like i don't know what's a term but they're able to access air droplet from philippines so major shout out to you guys for using air droplet uh but we'll look into this one i think maybe you're a part of the two percent that couldn't access from the philippines so we'll look into that all right you guys know what to do smash up the like button subscribe to the channel be very careful okay don't don't aimlessly cross margin with no risk management okay pick an entry model that you like for the time being and just trade later i'm expecting after summer that's when we can see preparation for alt season that's when we'll start load up on alts and that's when we'll dca for alts that are not in new all-time high territory if you're going to be dcaing now not financial advice that would be btc seoul and soy okay because they're market structure wise yep all right my name is ron my name is martin