"Bullrun" is coming?

Boxmining avatar Boxmining
7.0K views 362

Description

Latest Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency news and trends. We take a look at the key events affecting the blockchain sector and review market movements. Combining both fundamental analysis and technical analy...

AI Analysis

The crypto market is buzzing with the question: Is the bull run truly here? While many are hyped about Bitcoin reaching new highs due to institutional interest and global political tensions driving demand for decentralized value, there's also a healthy dose of skepticism. The market is showing bullish momentum, but it’s crucial to remain critical and consider potential traps, especially as retail excitement often precedes a market correction.

Here's a breakdown of the key discussions:

* Market Sentiment and the "Bull Run" Question:
* There's a prevailing feeling in crypto media that Bitcoin is poised for new heights, driven by institutional investors and global political instability making Bitcoin appealing as a global transfer of value independent of traditional financial systems.
* However, there's a strong undercurrent of skepticism, with some fearing the current hype could be a "trap" designed to entice retail investors just before a potential dump.
* It's noted that people often "see what they want to see," especially those holding crypto who desire market increases.
* An interesting dynamic is observed: Asia seems more bearish due to ongoing Chinese crackdowns on crypto-related bank accounts and incidents like the OKX founder's disappearance, while North America is more bullish, possibly due to a better understanding of developments like PayPal's move. This leads to market dips during Asian hours and rebounds when America is awake.

* Bullish Reasons for the Market:
* PayPal Announcement: PayPal allowing customers to purchase and spend Bitcoin is seen as a significant positive, despite questions about why it took so long. The speculation that PayPal might acquire a custody solution like BitGo further fuels this optimism.
Institutional Investors: Institutions are indeed entering the market, but their approach is slow and steady. They are more likely to "stack" Bitcoin during dips rather than driving immediate, dramatic price surges like retail investors. Money talks, and while registrations are up, actual deposits aren't moving in large volumes immediately*.
* Election Uncertainty (US): The polarizing nature of the US elections is causing uncertainty in traditional stock markets, leading some to view Bitcoin as a safe haven. It's noted that different regions have varying analyses on whether a Trump or Biden win would be good for crypto, but the overall uncertainty is a driver.
* COVID-19 Impact: The pandemic has led to more people being stuck at home, increasing interest in trading across various assets, including crypto, as seen with the Tesla hype and TikTok trends.

* Bearish Reasons for the Market (Red Flags/Warnings):
Already Factored In: Many of the "bullish" news items (PayPal, institutional interest, CBDC developments like DCEP) are already widely known and likely priced into the current market. Without truly new* information, upward momentum might be limited.
No New Blood (Compared to 2017): While there's some* new interest, it's not at the "insane" levels of 2017. Back then, there were lines of people waiting outside Bitcoin centers with suitcases of cash; now, it's a trickle. Ledger sales are up roughly 20%, which is good, but nowhere near the previous explosion of retail interest.
* DeFi/Farming Bubble Concerns: There's a strong personal sentiment of extreme caution here. The risk-to-reward ratio for yield farming no longer makes sense. Aggressive shilling of DeFi projects is a red flag, as it feels like people are desperately trying to offload bags. This aggression triggers a "bear sentiment."
* Garbage Projects: The presale/incubation space is currently flooded with "total garbage" projects designed with low caps and initial market caps to create "pumpermento" (pump-and-dump) scenarios. These projects have very thin long-term value and are designed to scam retail investors, which is seen as a very bearish sign for the overall health of the market.
* "Hopemium" and Overly Bullish Sentiment: The market is susceptible to "hopemium" – seeing what one wants to see. It's a reminder to be balanced and critical.
* Hex (as a market indicator): While personally viewed as a scam ("Bitconnect of 2020," a Ponzi/pyramid scheme with no inherent value), the aggressive shilling of Hex is ironically seen as a "bullish" indicator of increasing market insanity and retail interest in scams, similar to Bitconnect's role in the 2017 bull run. The presenter maintains a strict ban on Hex promotion on the channel.

* Personal Portfolio Strategy and De-risking:
* The presenter was very aggressively invested in crypto (almost 100% in DeFi/farming) a month or two ago, which yielded good results.
* However, a shift has occurred towards "de-risking," which means selling some assets.
* Actionable Takeaway: Around 30% of altcoin positions have been de-risked over the past 2-3 weeks. This decision is based on the belief that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) will lead the next market move.
* The de-risked alt funds were moved primarily into increasing BTC and ETH stacks, with about 15-20% moved into stablecoins (USDT, USDC).
* Stablecoin Strategy: Stablecoins are held on exchanges (like FTX) for quick re-entry into positions if the market consolidates sideways (dollar-cost averaging in) or experiences a significant dip (buying the dip). This is a short-term holding strategy (1-2 months); for longer periods, funds would be moved to fiat in a bank account due to trust issues with crypto companies holding funds.
* If the market moons (e.g., Bitcoin goes to $20k, $30k, or even $100k), the strategy is to "DCA sell" (dollar-cost average sell) on the way up and then look to buy back during inevitable dips, as "Bitcoin has died 200 times and it's gonna die 200 times again."

* Specific Projects/Concepts Discussed:
* Harvest.finance ($FARM): Not heavily invested due to centralization concerns and unsatisfactory answers from the team. A recent exploit or issue ("bleeding of the vaults") caused a significant dip, reinforcing past caution about centralized risk.
* Pancakeswap ($CAKE): Farmed in specific pools (BUSD, DOT, BAND) as these are coins already held. The CAKE/BNB pool is considered very dangerous due to CAKE's volatility. While recognizing its potential as a UniSwap equivalent on Binance Smart Chain with strong Binance partnerships, the high emission rate is a concern.
* Yield Farming Honeymoon Over: The general consensus is that the golden age of easy, high-yield farming is ending. Yields have dropped significantly (from 600% to 30%, 20%, 10% or even 0.5%), making it harder for yield aggregators to justify their value or for projects to sustain high valuations. Most farmers are now smart enough to dump free coins, leading to continuous downward pressure (e.g., Lua going from $2 to 5 cents).
* YFValue ($YFV/$VALUE): Sold due to poor timing of its vault releases, which coincided with the general decline in farming yields.
* NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens):
* Currently, the NFT art market is dominated by "wash trading" and fake volume, making it highly skeptical that the "crypto community cares about art" enough to justify exorbitant prices (thousands or millions of dollars for a digital image).
* The current "meta-game" for NFT projects involves finding low-cap projects and pumping them hard, similar to meme coins.
* However, legitimate long-term use cases for NFTs are acknowledged, such as fractionalized real estate, supply chain products, and security tokens (STOs), but these are not currently driving the speculative frenzy seen in NFT art.
* Trustswap ($SWAP) and SWAG: Both are observed to be very volatile, with recent significant dumps, highlighting the current market's instability.
* Another Altseason? The presenter believes the recent DeFi summer "altseason" has already exhausted the market. The current altcoin space is heavily driven by "gambling" on obscure or themed coins. For another true altseason, Bitcoin and Ethereum would need to lead first, generating profits that then flow into riskier altcoins.
* Tron DeFi (SUN, Pearl, SalmonSwap): Tron's DeFi ecosystem largely "never took off." Despite the advantage of free transactions, yields dumped very quickly, and projects like Pearl and SalmonSwap saw brutal price declines. It's not recommended to get into them unless one is just experimenting.

Transcript

episode off box mining live stream here only on box mining i was gonna say um anyway so today we have a pretty interesting title for our stream so this is the title where i'm like huh i really want to tell you guys what i'm thinking and what i'm thinking is is the bull run really coming because over the past week or so crypto twitter and crypto media has always constantly been feeding us the news that bitcoin is going to take to new heights in fact i've been talking a little bit about this as w...