So Much FEAR on the Market BUT WAIT...

Now! Boys, welcome to Alpha Drop. My name is Ron. Martin here. And today has been a very chaotic day, especially for the people who just woke up in Asia. All this has to come down to what happened last night for US. So Trump announced the biggest tariff in US history, announcing tariffs on 185 countries at once. And this caused so much dump across all markets, especially the equities market. $2 trillion of market cap wiped in under 15 minutes. So Bitcoin as well, the crypto market also took a hit. But compared to the stock market, it's not that big of a deal. Crypto market still $200 billion wiped, I think in the same amount of time. But let's talk about today. So you guys already know the news. What's up? So what can we expect in the next few months for the crypto market in particular? Now, a lot of people are still thinking that BTC might flush to $72K. Might flush to $72K. They really want that. And they think that flush to $72K then upwards is a healthy move. We'll also explain arguments why that might not happen, although it's not a guaranteed. That $76K was probably our local bottom for the time being. So we'll explain bull cases, bear cases. And despite everything going on in the market right now, so much uncertainty, so much drama, we still think it's not over for Bitcoin. Of course. I don't think it's over. We're still in the middle of the Bitcoin halving cycle. And as a wise man once told me, every market operate within its own cycle. And it's not affected by what other markets are doing. In Bitcoin in particular, I think $109K is still not the top. I might be wrong, but that's what I think. That's my conviction. So just remember, none of this is financial advice. This is only for educational purposes. A lot of what we're going to be talking about today is quite a lot of yapping, but it can be maybe insightful. Just use it as a frame of reference for your analysis, but never take it as a signal to long or short. All right. So let's see what's going on here. I've noticed recently the Kobayashi letter is the best source of news when it comes to macro news. So it's here. All right. What happened? Let's see. So the announcement began with a Wall Street Journal report that a 10% baseline tariff would be imposed by the US. While this was true, markets took it all, took it as all reciprocal tariffs were 10%. However, this quickly changed as President Trump began outlining many other tariffs well above 10%. So basically yesterday we got that pump, right? We got the market pumping pretty well late last night in Asia time. And this was pricing in the thesis that Trump is saying, oh, it's not actually a big tariff, but it's actually a very big fucking tariff after he started holding up that plaque. Okay. Yeah, that was funny. So here is where things went up. All right. So at 4.26 PM Eastern time, President Trump picked up the below poster on stage at his announcement. Look how big this fucking thing is. Look how nice it looks. So much time and effort put into this. Look how proud he is. Right. So he picked it up. Before he picked it up, everything was up. And this is when BTC was pumping, ETH was pumping, Seoul was pumping. It was reacting very, very nicely. But by the time he started naming the new tariffs name by name, okay? Taiwan, India, China. Yeah. It went down. Keep going, keep going. Vietnam. Down. Saudi, Arabia. Down. Canada. Canada. Canada. Canada. And the more, the names that he's been, each name and name, the price has just been falling down. So this is, if you caught this live, this must have been insane for you to watch it live. It must have been funny, but also painful at the same time. Not painful for sure. Not funny. Yeah, I know, right? It's painful. Not gonna lie. So what? First, Trump explained how the reciprocal tariffs were calculated. He said, because the U.S. is very kind, tariffs will be imposed at half of the rate of what countries are currently charging the U.S. So for example, if you tariff the U.S. 20%, the U.S. will tariff you 10%. This is very different from the 10% tariff across the board, which is supposedly priced in the market, right? For example, at the top of the list is China, which the U.S. claims currently charges 67% tariffs. China, China, China. China, China. There's gonna be a lot of problems when it comes to the imports and exports of China goods. I mean, everyone buys China goods. So houses, this is actually very scary, not gonna lie. So this means a 34% tariff is coming for China and a 20% for the EU union. Clearly much more than 10%, okay? Because upon that realization, the market dumped, okay? It wasn't, they assumed it was just gonna be 10%, so it's priced in, pumped, then what? Once Trump hold that plaque up and say, oh no, it's actually more than 10%, the market started dumping, okay? So what can we take away from this? Is that there's definitely gonna be a lot more blood in the market in the next few months. I think a lot of fear. But I think the good news is that, okay, finally, we're over the phase of uncertainty, okay? Trump and his administration has clearly said what they're going to do. So at least now we know it's not uncertain, okay? So there has to be a direction that we're going moving forward. Let me actually find that particular thread that encapsulated very well the situation. So what's your play, Ron? I'll explain my play in a bit. I DCA'd. You DCA'd? I DCA'd into my coins. Okay, wait. Wait, wait, wait, wait. I was at this one. Oh yeah, look at this thing. He's so proud. And then as he names, it just started dumping. Two sec, two sec. Where'd we go? Where'd we go? Was it this one? Okay, okay, okay. Uh-huh, uh-huh, uh-huh, uh-huh, uh-huh, uh-huh. What's up, everyone? How you all doing? How y'all doing? What's up, Randall? Moses? Yo! Hey, Randall finally caught a stream. It's been a while. Okay. I just know that this news is just noise for me for the time being. As I've explained over and over again for the past two months, this is the best time to be scalping and intraday trading, right? We've explained this with the Orb strategy, where even with 45% win rate, but you weave in a couple of 2 and 3 R, you can effectively 2X your money in three months. But this, just remember, this is backtest data, but this is showing us that this is possible. But for the time being, swing longs or swing shorts are very, very dangerous. Because just looking at the market structure for BTC, okay, let's take a look at the 4-hour. We are still, in terms of price action, still uncertain. We don't know if it's going to be a flush towards 72K. 72K. We don't know if it's going to be reaching for all-time highs soon. Because we are currently in the no man's land-ish. Just remember, ish. For bull case, we need a full reclaim of 100K. Ideally, we want 104K reclaim for new all-time highs to go back up. We're in the pain zone. We're in the pain zone. This is where we live. This is where we live. This is where we live. Tom Flats. Why 104K? Because these are major SFP swings. And whenever there's an SFP failure, a swing pattern failure, that area becomes of an interest of value for future targets. And conversely, on a downside, for 72K. And for this case, I took reference from TraderSZ's live stream yesterday, where he talked about what his thoughts on the market are. And very objective, honestly. He's saying that, I mean, if you zoom out, like way out. Let me actually get the... Let's open a new one. Let's go to the BTCUSD. The dream is over. We are finally liberated. But bear with me here. Bear with me. Okay. Stick till the end. We'll have a little bit of a bull copium kicking in. I don't know if this will happen, but based on historical performance, that's likely a code. But look at this. Looking at the six months, we are just... We flushed... We got that 76K flush, right? That's just midpoint of this six-month candle. Right here. And the case for 76K being the local bottom here is because we had consolidation here. All right? So this is what TraderSZ said in his live stream is that a tap into 72K is acceptable, but it's not necessary. All right? If we didn't have this consolidation period here for four days, then yes, it's very obvious that we want to retest 72K. But for the time being, we have retested that area at 76, right? That huge flush on March 11. So that is the local bottom until otherwise invalidated. So in the time being, it's still very uncertain in terms of the price action for BTC. Now, let's just get to the good news, shall we? Right? What is the copium that we're all hoping for? So you know me. I'm not a big fan of indicators. And when we're trying to look for signs, that's when we really are desperate when it comes to indicator. But this indicator is called the hash ribbons indicator where it measures the Bitcoin hash network, yada, yada, yada, right? And this thing only pops up, like I think 20 times throughout history. Actually, let's go to the BTC. Really? Does it? Yes. 20 times throughout history. 20 times throughout history and 17 out of 20 times, once the buy signal pops up, it starts pumping, pumping, pumping. This is actually the... What's his name again? Cryptozaras, George, his favorite indicator. And let's see here. Bear with me here. Let's look at it. Hash ribbons? Yeah. Okay, so let's see. The buy signal popped up on 24th of March, right? Which was here. Then we had the drawdown. But if you see, they've marked out all the capitulation period. And the last time that this signal popped up was 16th of October, when BTC's price was 67K. And from then on, it just started pumping, pumping, pumping, pumping, right? And then before that, let's see here. Now, this is the case where it had a massive drawdown. And I remember this. We remember this. This was the war going on in Israel, right? The August 5 bloodbath. Here, July 23rd, popped up signal. Then you had the news, the war going on, which caused the bloodbath across all markets. But then it consolidated and went up. I think it's... Okay. What is this hash ribbons thing? All right, let's actually take a look at it. What is this hash ribbons thingy-majig? All right. About this script. Because it seems like it's in... It shows up. The blue thing shows up. The indicator shows up before every event. All right. Or during. This is just purely for calculating minor capitulation yields. Okay. So we know that Bitcoin miners are super rich, right? They're in control of the supply and demand, fundamentally speaking, for Bitcoin's price action. So the best buy signals occur on hash rate recovery and when price momentum is also positive. So historically speaking, the strategy has yielded average returns to cycle peak of more than 5,000%. I think this was back when, you know, before 2020, with max drawdown of 15%. But as of now, we're seeing max drawdown of 27%. You can see this patch note was in 2019. So now the max drawdown we have was minus 27% from the August 2024 war situation here where this buy signal popped up. All right. Let's see. Buy signal. July 23rd. Price range. July 23rd. Right here. All the way down here. Yeah. So 27%. That was the max drawdown for the hash ribbon indicator thingy. Hash ribbon indicator thingy. But this indicator is basically telling us that miners have already capitulated and that they have started to reaccumulate their position again in BTC. So I think pair this with, let's look at the monthly for BTC. And this will start to make sense. All right. So this is where we're at now. Right. If you compare to the huge run-up that we had late 2023, right, then here, when BTC hit new all-time high at 72K last year, what did we have? We had consolidation for one, two, three, four, five, six, seven months. Seven months of accumulation leaning towards down. So maybe one of you guys might say, ah, this is like a bull flag, right? So maybe, this is the copium speaking, not financial advice, but we might be in a similar situation right now where we're just in the phase of accumulation yet again. Okay. So a flush towards 72K is possible, but it's not necessary because we've already had the flush towards 76K where that area was a point of accumulation right here. Right. It stalled for one, two, three days before another run-up. Right. This was right before, I think, oh, actually it was shortly after, uh, Trump announced, uh, Trump became president. Okay. So, let's see what's going to happen in the next three months, but I really think it's still not over. I think there's a lot more room to go for BTC and it doesn't make sense that a lot of these large institutions and governments are accumulating a lot of BTCs, not just for their fund, but also for themselves as part of their treasury funds, right? Uh, but in the meantime, if you're going to be trading, always risk 1%. Manage it very well. And even with a 45% win rate, you can still win, but that will be the hard part is even with 45% win rate, you will need to weave in a couple of two and three R's to really see the compound effect kicking in. Otherwise, you're, if you're only targeting one, uh, one R for a 45% win rate, you're at a loss, right? So it's all about the math, but so far, try it out. Maybe with paper money, and then once you have confidence, then you do it with real money. So after, before, Oh, what was it? Yeah, yeah, yeah, here. Just remember this, bull market, bear market, it doesn't matter. If you're going to be trading, it's just about what play you're going to be doing. How much can you make if you're correct? How much will you lose if you're wrong? And how much will you lose? That, that part is fixed because it's 1%. So the hardest part here is taking profit because you are ideally looking for a 3R. 1R is the easiest, but it gets progressively harder as the higher, higher they go. But, uh, this is the part where TA will help you. Okay. And one more thing to note is I've learned something new. Apparently this wall street quant, uh, has, uh, uh, pretty much like you should watch this video. It's very good. He's like teaching you. He's like talking to you as a friend, but he's explaining how, uh, to price Bitcoin, right? We know that the large institutions, the, the, uh, market makers, right? All of these rich whales, they have the wealth to really move BTC. And where do you see this information is actually in the options market. Let's see here. Coin glass options market. There's better, I think websites to see options data, but coin glass one gives you for free, but it's not really a full info, but for the time being, we can see options, open interest, call versus put. We have 58.79% in calls suggesting that, uh, institutions are generally bullish, but what we're not seeing here is, uh, we can't read between the line here. We do not know if they're actually bullish or are they just setting up hedge longs, but the surface level, we know that there's large amounts of calls for BTC. And I think this month, next month, depending on the expiration date of their options, uh, will be very critical to see how BTC is going to perform in the future. But this research is not really necessary for you to incorporate into your day trades, reading, but this is, I think very helpful. If you are, yeah, for macro, for high timeframe trading, for swings, we're talking about weeks, months, et cetera, et cetera, but very, very interesting information. Now, you know, uh, this is one great source and it filters out the noise, right? Because large institutions, they have large capital, large position. Uh, they're not really interested in trading perpetuals. They're more into options and, uh, the traditional futures, right? Where there are expiration dates. Oh, hell no. Huh? Randall. Hope for the best, but also start looking for good public schools. Oh, hell no. You know what? I'm just going to come out and say, I think this is definitely not over. Okay. High timeframe. Macro wise, we are still a long way to go for a bull run for BTC. Of course. Next five years. Next five years. Looking five years. Don't listen to him. Why? I don't think so. I think we're not over, bro. We're not over. Okay. We're, we're like, Oh, you mean next five years, then we get a bull run? No, no, no. I mean, I mean like, uh, you know, we're hodling long term. Nah, man, we're talking about this cycle. All right. Uh, let's see. Having started April 19. So, we are in the 52nd week of our having cycle and having cycles occur for about 80 weeks. So we still have 38 weeks left for BTC to play out. I think that is still a lot of time. 38 weeks is how many in months? 38 weeks pregnancy. Nine months. That's a pregnancy. That's how long a woman is pregnant. So, if you're pregnant now, that's also a good way to keep track of the rest of the cycle. Impregnate. Yeah. So, when your baby is here, it's peak bull run. It's peak bull run. Should be. Yeah. Otherwise, never mind. Never mind. Not financial advice. Not financial advice. Not financial advice. Exactly. Okay. But very interesting to see. Just, yeah. That's what I'm thinking. Right? I'm biased. Every opinion you'll see on Twitter are biased in some way. There are people that are super, super bullish like this guy Merlian the trader. He's just constantly bull posting. Okay? And then there are the other camp which is generally bearish. Like if you watch the Crypto Banter guys, they're still generally very bearish. They're still thinking that BTC will retest 72K at one point. That is their opinion and if they're correct then yeah, they're fine. So just remember that don't take our opinions as a signal to long or short. Alright? You need to handle that part yourself and this is very important. Okay? Because otherwise you're just gonna get wrecked and you can get left behind if the market starts running. Oh, that sucks when you're left behind. Yeah. And that's the worst feeling ever. Right? So I hope this video has helped you out. Birth as a sell indicator. Birth as a sell indicator. Sell everything. Got the baby on the way. Baby's here. Alright. Let us know what you guys think in the comments down below. And yeah. AJ Delosanto says better to have your partner pregnant now so you lose focus on chart and prevent from selling. That's actually a good hedge strategy. Yeah. It's a good hedging strategy. It's like the nine months no looking at charts. Yeah. Because you know last night I wasn't looking at charts and then the price in action was happening and it was just like wow. I was happy. Went to bed. Thinking you know it's gonna be looking pretty good this morning but no. Once the tariffs came out it was pretty bad. Okay wait. Okay. One last thing to note here is the key levels we have. Okay. So we're keeping the previous key levels. Previous range was between 90 to 104k. Currently in terms of short term action it's very important we reclaim 84k. As you can see here major deviation above 84k. If we can reclaim 84k and work our way towards the 90k region I'm thinking short to midterm this would be a potential target 95 to 96k for BTC. From then on we'll have to see how BTC performs. If it keeps grinding up if it keeps grinding up and reclaim that 104k then that's definitely a confirmation for new all time high for BTC. Otherwise the bear case let's see what's going to happen for the bear case. So if we don't get a break here let's say it just grinds down like this retest here grinds down then around these levels right it will work its way down towards 72k it will test here first we'll see how this area performs but if it fails to reclaim then it can yes it can flush towards 72k. and from then on see how the market performs from then on okay just for time being we're in the middle of this low time frame range here. Alright you guys know what to do smash up the like button what is this celebify so before send DM DM Martin on X DCA boys we're going to see sunshine at some point it's the long game sunshine it was good Brian Nunes Brian Nunes what about Nillion did you get the airdrop? Nillion to a million Nillion to a million Nillion the airdrop if you got it then congratulations but I that's up to you for what you want to do with the token itself you want to sell now or sell later I think the only token that I'm holding right now from the airdrops that I've been getting is walrus walrus story protocol as well we haven't sold oh yeah we haven't sold story as well completely forgot about it it's just in our wallet what else what's that Kaito so as you can see I'd say 80% of the time no matter how good a project is because it's still classified as an alt upon TGE it will just search for a new floor so right now it looks like Nillion is on a downtrend ever since March 24 but it's still too early to say but you'll have confirmation once you see accumulation stalling around a certain price area and then see where price is going to react from there and if it continues to fall from that area of accumulation if there's a perpetual market it's actually not a bad idea to short it if it starts climbing up retest the accumulation period then go back up then you have confirmation for a long for Nillion okay so don't get wrecked okay it's all about waiting for confirmation that's very key you don't want to catch the bottom you don't want to catch the top that's a lot of mistakes that's a lot of mistake I see you guys are making as well I still see very surprising yesterday someone said they got liquidated again how can you get liquidated man right so if you don't wait for confirmation you're gonna get wrecked confirmation is not exactly confirmation but it's confirmation for a high probability play okay that it favors your trade going towards that direction all right okay smash up the like button subscribe to the channel my name is Ron and I'm a Shanana peace dude