BTC Rollercoaster is VERY POSSIBLE... (Look at HTF Liquidity)

Welcome to AlphaDrop. My name is Ron. Martin here. And now we have a situation. If you've been scrolling on CT, you'd see a lot of opinion from many different influencers, trading analysts. So IllusionX is really, really good as well when it comes to spotting high time frame situations. And you can see in this chart, he thinks that something like this is going to happen where currently we're right around 80, 82K for BTC, right? And he's thinking, oh, we're going to reclaim 100K, but then dump back towards the 50 and 60K region. Then we have all time high. And this is what I have come to understand is at first, right? If you don't realize why he made this, why his opinion is like this, is because you don't understand how liquidity works. Was this what we discussed yesterday, Ron? Exactly. Okay. All right. So we know that price gravitates towards liquidity zones, right? If you're going to be, if you're a large player, you want large orders fill, you need to tap into those liquidity zones to match your order so that they can get filled without slippage, right? Or at least minimize slippages. And you'll see many people in the comments, they're saying like something like impossible, like no, no, no. We're only going to go up from here. No, no, no. We're only going to go down from here, right? So that can make you very, very confused. And if you have no idea what's going on, then you can get trapped. I warned you this on Monday, this Monday, right? We warned you that do not get trapped on both sides because right now it is hunting season for market makers, hedge funds, large institutions, right? So many sell the news event type shit going on that if you are not implementing risk management and especially if you're doing something like over leveraging on cross margin, right? Hoping that price will go where you want it to go, you are certainly going to get wrecked. Full port in your bag. Exactly. Yeah, I guess the main thing for people watching who aren't aware, they just wonder how do they come to this conclusion? Why do they think it's going to drop all the way down and then all time high? Yeah, so do we have an answer? Of course, we'll teach you how to spot these levels, okay? But first and foremost, you do not even need to look at... So we'll show you this one, right? The liquidation level. This is something that one of our traders in our office actually taught me that he was like, Ron, how's your trading going? And he shared with me something interesting with this. So this is actually much better, I'd say, than the Coin Glass heat map, right? The heat map shows you where a lot of the liquidity is based on how many people place their stops and et cetera, et cetera, right? But what you cannot see is, are these live orders or are they filled or not? So this indicator shows you if there's a line, then it is currently active, right? So people have their stops there. And if there's no line with the bubble, it means it's already been filled. So we'll teach you our thought process on this. We're not masters at this yet, but this is certainly something very interesting to incorporate into your high timeframe analysis. This is not something for you to use as confirmation on low timeframe trading. This is what I noticed too. But first and foremost, you don't even need this. What you need to do right now to get a full picture of what BTC is doing is really just to zoom out on the one week. We're going back to basics, but this is how it is. Look, right? CT saying, oh no, the top for BTC is over. We're coming back down. But look, when did the uptrend start for BTC? It started all the way back in January 2023, two years ago, the uptrend start. There was no break of structure, right? There was simply no break of structure. We're still going up, up, up, up, up, up, up. It's just currently in deep retracement on the low timeframe level. Okay? Do you understand what I mean? On the high timeframe level, where's the deep retracement going to be? It's going to be, if you draw your fib, inside that golden pocket, or in some cases here at 0.786. So, if we break below 36K, and I think more realistically, this is the worst case scenario, but more realistically, if we break below 52K and fail to reclaim this area, then yes, we are in the bear market. But all in all, we are in the bull market. Don't forget that. Okay? And if you are pissed about the retracements, right? These deep retracements, there's just one reason. You're either over leveraging, not doing risk management, or the second reason, which is what we're experiencing right now, is our alts are taking a bit of hits. There's nothing we can do about that for now. But what we can do is get a clear picture of BTC's timeline. Okay? Remember here in August 2024, when the Israeli war conflict happened, BTC went from 73K all the way back down towards 49K, right? And people at that time were still like, oh no, it's over. We're not going to see 100K for Bitcoin. Then several months later, actually not even several months, it's several weeks, right? Until Trump became president, then we have the 100K. And as you can see, this is sort of a fractal pattern going on here, right? Here, when Bitcoin hit 73K in March, it stalled in this range until November, then up we go. And you can see this level here, right? Let me see. Let me show you. Oh, let me close the magnet. All right? Look. Look at this. It's very similar to what's going on right now. Okay? So 72K is a core support level to defend, but in some cases, it could go back to 66K, but we do not know when. All right? But it's very possible because 66K is above the golden pocket of this Fib, right? This super high time, this giga high time frame Fibonacci, right? From January towards all time high at, what was it? 108K, right? In December. I remember this. I was in Macau and then the notification popped up and it was like, hey, Bitcoin hitting 108K. And my friends were like, hey, you must be so happy right now. I'm like, yeah, so happy, man. So happy. But in the meantime, please be aware that something like this, not something like this. Please be aware. Ingrain this in your head before you're going to be over leveraging because I'm still very shocked and surprised that one or two of you commented in our previous live stream that Ron, I got liquidated. And then I'm like, come on, man. I told you not to do stuff like this, right? Just stick to 1%. If you're going to be trading, have an entry model on the low time frame, but always have this high time frame picture in your mind, okay? This will let, like, price can go towards as low as 50K again, right? That's very scary if you're over leveraging cross margin with no stop loss, right? You can wipe out your entire account. This is possible. And this is actually the cheapest that you can get BTC. This is the final answer. We literally zoomed out and see, oh yeah, this is discount area for BTC, okay? Now, coming back to here, okay? This is the main topic for this stream. How can you understand why some people have these sort of opinion where it's like literally a roller coaster, right? It's because of liquidity. It's hunting season right now. Now, we go back to the indicator that we just recently learned. And it's like the heat map, but it shows you on live what's going on. And I like to enable this one, hide filled levels, because if you uncheck this, it shows all lines and it just clusters. What I want to see is the liquidation, stop losses live right now that are happening right now. And the colors are blue, people having 25x leverage, yellow, 50x leverage, red, 100x leverage, et cetera, et cetera. So you can learn about this script. It's by Leviathan. So you can check this out on TradingView. But essentially, what this tells me is, look, our current situation right now, why Mr. Illusion X thinks we can pump to 100k but not really hit all-time high yet, then afterwards we have the dump, and then all-time high is simply because of how liquidity works. We're in a situation where there's just so much leverage going on that it is very juicy for market makers, hedge funds, large players to just hunt these orders. That way, their orders can get filled. Just to let you guys know, okay, they're not hunting you, they're hunting liquidity. And if you get trapped, you are caught in the crossfire. Just remember, 10% of volume in BTC and ETH are from retail. So you're just caught, you're simply caught in the crossfire. And I noticed with the, a little bit of sidetrack here, right? So these past three weeks, we've been trading with Orb. And I noticed there's definitely a correlation between NY market open and Asia market open. So they're hunting each other. This is my hypothesis. All right, they're TVPing each other, okay? If, for example, yesterday, right? No, was it Monday, right? Monday, Asia carried pretty, pretty well, right? They started buying a little bit, started carrying the momentum up a bit, but then when NY market open happened, it dumped, right? So completely erasing the gains that the Asians made for the day, right? Then yesterday, after NY close, Asians carried again. And you can see this is a very similar pattern. You can see dump, then slow coil up, right? Then dump. Then here, dump, slow coil, and then up again, right? So, this is giving us a picture that, yeah, we are now understanding that it's PVP between the large players in different countries, okay? So right now, what the US is doing, and with the orb, you can see they grabbed liquidity here, could potentially retest this area again on the low time frame, but that's for another topic. So, going back to the topic, right, which is the liquidity zones, and why IllusionX, his opinion is like this, what's the explanation behind that thesis? It's because of the liquidation levels, okay? Wherever price action is closest to the nearest liquidation levels, they will seek to hunt that first before reversing, okay? So, there's so much leverage positions with their stop losses and liquidation levels resting actually above 95 to 100k, you can see here, especially these areas here, right? It's yellow and red. So, I could hunt here, then come back down to hunt here. All right, that's why right now, it's just so volatile because they're flushing out the market. Now you know why, how the methodology works, the methodology behind flushing the market and once these leveraged traders, these positions get flushed out, then we will seek a little bit of a consolidation. So, I would say after maybe a dump towards 60 or 50k retesting those areas, we can see ideally what I want to see is consolidation. Whoa, that's really a lot of clusters. That's why I don't use this for trading confirmation. It's just as part of my high time frame analysis. Okay, so maybe we can see something like this where it's gradual slow. Then here also in the 15 minute, between 84 and 88k, there's so much stops happening. Let's pull this one open first. Liquidation levels. You can see, look at that, right? so much going on on the low time frame. But the trick here, it's not guaranteed that if price goes here, that it will certainly have, sorry, let me rephrase that one more time. It's not guaranteed that if price does come here, there's going to be a short squeeze. What is going to cause the short squeeze is if the price absorbs those liquidity. Okay, that means if there are already large players having their orders resting here with a buy, then yes, there's going to be a short squeeze because it's absorbing the short stops, right? So if you have that match, it's going to pump. Otherwise, if there's no order resting here from the buy side, then it's going to get rejected, then come back down. So now, you know how short squeeze works when it comes to liquidity dynamics. So what's going to happen? I think, let's see, four hours, maybe something. Yes, certainly is to hunt here around targeting these regions, then a chop down. Maybe within, maybe in some like one or two days, there's going to be like a nuke, but potentially it could seek to retest 72k. So these are our lines of defense, 75 because there's an order block there, 72, and then eventually 66k. I expect a very strong reaction from 66k if price does come there, meaning if price does come there, there could be a sharp bounce and then ranging between 66k and 72k. That could be a possibility as well. So if you're watching right now at this point, you might be thinking, that's never going to happen. But remember what I told you in the beginning of this video, right? If you zoom out on the weekly, you draw the fib from the swing low from January 2023 to our all-time high in December, you can see this is not even close to the golden pocket, which is the ideal retracement for price action. Okay? So that's why don't zoom in too much or if you're going to be zooming in, just make sure you have zooming out at the back of your head. Okay? So that's for BTC. For ETH, this is looking very juicy. Right? So ETH, we have, let me just delete this one first, the fib, right? So the sweep had already come. We've talked about this for weeks now, right? We planned for this. Equal wicks clustered around the $2,000 area, right? Then we had the break below sweeping this daily OB right here and very, very strong reaction currently. And I think a lot of people are scared. Could this OB fail to hold and seek newer lows? So no one knows, but if you draw the same thing, right? The fib, let's look at the weekly. When did the uptrend begin? Oh, no. Okay, wait, I have to look again. Okay, same time as well, January, 2023. Yeah, break of structure here. The magnet. Awesome. Wait, wait, wait. Okay. Okay. Okay. Towards the recent high. All right, there. Magnet is so useful. And then somewhere. So yes, we are tapping inside the 0.786, which is super deep retracement. Okay. Anything from here should be strong reaction. It could deviate towards 1.5. So something like if it does break below this OB, it could have like a deviation claimed back the 0.786 area and this OB right here. There's just so much confluence going on in this current level right now for ETH is what I would say. Any break below could be a potential deviation, but that takes time to develop. Right? Okay. So as you can see already, like if you draw the FIB for ETH compared to BTC, ETH is like super, super cheap right now. It's incredibly cheap. Whereas BTC is not even close to the golden pocket yet. All right? So there's one takeaway from this video is just draw the FIB from the swing low towards the all-time high on a high time frame on the weekly and you get the full picture of what's going on. Okay? It shows you the possibility of where price could retrace to for BTC. So if price does retrace to 52K, okay, worst case scenario for BTC, it's logical because of the FIB, right? The thesis of our FIB retracement. Okay? So if you're getting emotional over this, it's because you don't understand what's happening on the high time frame. So now you know, right? You guys are smarter now. You get a full picture, a clear picture that is not over if BTC does come back to 52K. It's not over. Okay? This is a very cheap area. Okay? So, question, would you agree with what IllusionX is saying over here? Yes, only if the liquidity gets absorbed, if price does go towards that area. if it doesn't get absorbed, if there are no orders resting in those levels, then it's going to get rejected, then just come back down. So, this opinion is valid only if the liquidity at those regions get absorbed. Okay? All right. So, it's a fight between Asia versus US market. That's what I say. And London sessions are a little bit quiet, but they get pretty rowdy towards end of the month. No, no, no, like 4pm, 5pm Hong Kong time because they're prepping for the close and then setting up the ground for US market to open. So, so far, dude, Orb, really, really good. Even if we do have the losses, we get invalidated very, very quick. So, one more time for Orb. This morning, I got stopped out for BTC because we had a very strong reaction here, right? This is pretty good, so I market ordered, but I've been noticing for the past week is if there's a big wick on the top and small wick or even no wick at the bottom, this means that this move right here is a liquidity grab before a reversal. I actually saw this too last night when I was eyeing the US market open. What time was it? Not this. It was here, I remember very clearly. Yes, this specific candle right here. This candle was 15 minutes after the US market open. Let me draw the... So, this was the US market open, last night, yesterday. And then I saw, oh my god, it like, when you see price move like boom, boom, boom, like this, it's grabbing liquidity. They're getting absorbed, but then it quickly got rejected because there's no liquidity in these areas right here to keep the momentum going. So, it just quickly reversed, grab liquidity here, back inside the daily order block here. And then push up and up and up and up. Ranged here for a while. I was like watching the chart for two hours. I want to see what's going on when these liquidity grab do happen. So, we're refining our orb now, learning that if there's a top wick, but the break towards the upside indicating there's imbalance here, it's just liquidity grab. Potential reversal could happen. Not a guarantee, but could happen, which is exactly what is happening now. So, a bit of an update for orb is I take two trades only maximum for a specific session. Okay? If the first trade is a win, I don't need to trade the second one. But if the first trade is a loss, the second trade, I can take a counter trade. So, for example, if I get stopped out here, and then looking at current price action, we have three consecutive red candles with the middle one being a very big body with very small wick indicating major cell pressure, and the push towards the upside is invalidated at the current moment. Let's say within the next couple of hours. So, my limit order never got filled here for my short. Right here, I set a limit order here in case price does have like a small dead cat than a push towards the downside. But that's exactly what's happening now. I just didn't catch the train for that trade. So, if I miss the train, I don't chase. If it does come back here, then good. We'll see how this goes. Otherwise, if I never get my second order filled, I wait for the next session. So, currently, we're trading Asia session. The next opportunity would be in US session. In these days, London sessions not moving so much. So, not really high RR setups. So, the volatile setups really come with Asia and US market sessions. Okay? Alright. A lot of yapping. I hope you guys got something from that. I hope you guys learned something very valuable there. Okay? The FIB retracement on the Giga high time frame is super, super important to understand where price could retrace to. Okay? You don't need to trade to understand this. You just draw from the swing low on the weekly and see how it goes. And this is very applicable for BTC and ETH. Right? Technically, we're still on an uptrend for ETH. Right? Because we had so much hype in these regions, major SR flip happening here, people are saying, you know, ETH is over. But it's not over if ETH maintains above this here. If it breaks below 1.1k, then yeah, it's over. It's over. It's not over until we win. Yeah. And 80% of my portfolio is ETH at 2,800. So I cannot lose. There's no no room. Man, I can't English anymore. Losing is not an option. Losing is not an option. Just keep buying. DCA. Hello. What's up, everyone? Alpha world. Hola. New test net update. Sure. Which test net would you like us to cover? Are there anything, any test net campaigns you're looking at? Let us know. Nillion airdrop allocation checker today. Yes. Especially if you completed the verifier program, you're certainly eligible for the Nillion airdrop. Anita Cho says, Ron, meme weekly count 8 to the downside if 9 count next week. We had made a bottom. What's up, Anita Cho? Yo, how's it going? Bottom for memes, huh? I really hope so. Yo, Anita Cho, we got a room for you, man. It's really cozy, actually, the room over there. Oh, you went inside? Yeah. You took your shoes off, right? Yeah. I still haven't gone inside. Okay. Will do, will do. Yeah. There's a bed for Anita Cho. There's a bed for you, Anita Cho. It's very comfortable. Anita Cho is going to be sick this weekend. Oh, right. We got a bed waiting for you. Gio says, hey, Ron, can you look at the ENA chart? Sure. ENA. Sure, sure. How much ENA are you holding, bro? Who, me? No, that, Gio? Yeah, Gio. Ah. Let's see. Okay. This looks very clean for the fib. Get a grasp of the battlefield. Okay, yeah, clearly, we're failing to reclaim 44.93, so it's likely could push lower, but how low is the question, right? So let's see. These levels always indicate strong reaction, the higher highs, higher lows, because they also indicate liquidity resting in those regions. So here, you had the run up, then dump, but a strong bounce from there, so that's core reaction, so valid key level for the time being. Then you also have here, okay, so it could do something like this, or this, if your bias is bullish, that is, but, you know, Ina being an alt right now, it's very difficult to have a bullish bias high time frame wise, but there's definitely good opportunities if you're going to be trading this on the low time frame, just make sure it's in alignment with BTC and ETH's price action, especially ETH, because ETH is a very strong product of ETH, okay, so what's happening to ETH is what's happening to ETH right now. So this is bullish bias scenario, bearish bias is like this, and then accumulation here potentially, okay, accumulation here for God knows how long, and the project will be dead, well, not the project, but the token will be dead if it breaks below that accumulation area here, okay, I hope that makes sense, and I hope that this does not happen, because I am an ENA token holder, okay, Jamil Sani says, it's 4.45 AM, no sleep for airdrop hunters, hello, how's it going, you should get to bed man, you should get to bed, get some rest dude, us this week, we've just been sleeping three to four hours, and really, really tired, we were so busy yesterday, so apologies for not coming on to the live stream, but a lot of admin work to do, but we're back today, baby, we're back today, if BTC goes to the 60k area, that's really bad man, yeah, I mean, it's really bad if you bought in these regions, right, but on these giga high time frame, it's as cheap as it comes for BTC, so worst case scenario is these areas for BTC, and at the end of the day, if it all comes down to liquidity, if there's orders matching the counter side, that's what matters, I see Anita Cho says, he's talking about the bonk before, to buy bonk, and when it dropped, he told me to stop loss, I already said in the beginning, I don't know why you're so angry about that, better to just do spot trading for high conviction tokens, yes, but in the moment, at the moment, it's just free falling right now for a lot of alts, total 30, yeah, see, it's actually come back down to this OB here, on the weekly, so if we maintain this area for maybe two or three weeks, potential bounce for alts, but the dominance is showing a bit of divergence, it's still like stuck here, equal lows again, ideally, we want to see here in alignment with that other's OB as well, then yes, that would be bullish for alts, but in the meantime, it's just free falling right now for alts, still. Makes sense, makes sense. Duka Duke says, all I am waiting for is tomorrow, the CPI data, yes, yes, that's going to be tonight, actually, here in Hong Kong time, it's going to be very volatile, so there's going to be definitely inefficiencies going to happen, so that's why do not get trapped if you're going to be trading, okay? What's up, Randall? Randall, we're good. How's it going? Gio is holding more ina than he'd like, that's nice, yeah, more than I like. Same, same, same. It do be like that, man. Yo, what's going on, Brian Nunes? Brian Nunes, what's up? Nice to see you, bro. Gabby says, Yoran, will you ever buy Bitcoin or always alt? I was thinking to buy BTC in the bear market, maybe a large portion of BTC and rest to alt. Hey, it's always really good, it's always good to have like one Bitcoin. Like, that's good, you're in a good spot, just have a Bitcoin and wait 10, 20 years, keep it in a ledger or something. Yeah, and a lot of the big players are just converting their profits into BTC, so we're seeing a lot of DeFi guys actually just doing that. They convert their yields into BTC and just hold. But personally for me right now, I'd rather stay on stables first, then in the bear I will accumulate BTC. But in the meantime, we're in a situation where we're up, like we're caught between a rock and hard place for BTC. And we're halfway in the BTC halving cycle. So once we know that the market top is coming, then the bear market cycle is next, then I will start to accumulate BTC. But in the meantime, my job is just to acquire as much stables as I can. And if there's good opportunities elsewhere, that's where I will deploy. But yes, the end goal here is to accumulate BTCs. Yeah. All right. Thank you guys so much for tuning into the stream. We've got 25 people. So yeah, let us know what you guys think about the market, any plays you're into, and we're going to cover them next time. All right, you guys know what to do. Smash up the like button, subscribe to the channel. My name is Ron. Martin. Peace guys.