(Monday) Crypto and Bitcoin Livestream: Still bullish? Are we at the top?
Description
Latest Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Cryptocurrency news and trends. We take a look at the key events affecting the blockchain sector and review market movements. Combining both fundamental analysis and tech...
AI Analysis
This video dives deep into the recent crypto market crash, specifically the big dip on Sunday, April 18th, and analyzes why it happened, dispelling some common FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) circulating online. It covers the market's current state, the presenter's trading strategies, and his overall bullish outlook for the ongoing bull run, including which altcoins might be making a comeback.
Here’s a breakdown of the key topics and insights:
* The Weekend Crypto Crash and Its Real Causes:
* The market saw a "gigantic dip" on Sunday, April 18th, with crypto prices falling by around 10% in a flash crash, which was certainly unpleasant for many, including the presenter, who saw his altcoin portfolio drop significantly.
* The market quickly rebounded with a "very sharp rise" on Monday, indicating strong buying activity.
* Many circulating "fake reasons" for the crash were identified:
* Reports of a Chinese coal mine explosion causing Bitcoin hash rate to drop, leading to "Bitcoin is a China coin/CCP coin" FUD.
* Rumors about the U.S. Treasury charging financial institutions for money laundering using crypto.
* These "fake" reasons are seen as opportunistic narratives that surface during crashes to give people something to "latch on to" and justify the dip, often perpetuated by those looking to buy cheaper.
* The "real reason" for the crash was a "massive cascade of liquidations" in perpetual futures markets, where too many traders had stacked up long (buy) positions.
* The Coinbase direct listing, which occurred just before the crash, disappointed many traders who expected a higher price, leading to initial sell-offs in Bitcoin. Coinbase fell below the expected $623 pre-listing price, trading around $329, which disappointed people who expected it to be "super positive."
* Over-leveraged positions were wiped out when Bitcoin hit around $59,000, which was expected to be a support level. Once it broke this, a "giant straight arrow down" occurred as stop losses were triggered and liquidation engines kicked in.
* Funding rates, which were "super positive" (meaning many longs) on Friday, reversed completely to negative (more shorts/bearish) by Monday, providing clear evidence of the mass liquidation.
* Leverage trading on exchanges like Binance proved dangerous, as the exchange went down for a few seconds during the dump, preventing a user from closing their position and leading to a whopping $730,000 liquidation. This highlights the risk of relying on exchanges during volatile moments.
* Unlike traditional finance with margin calls, crypto liquidations happen in a "split second" without warning.
* Debunking Bitcoin Hash Rate FUD:
* The narrative that China controls "45% of BTC hash rate" and that a coal mine explosion in Xinjiang caused a 30% drop was exaggerated and misunderstood.
* This is classic FUD, often spread by people who don't understand how Bitcoin mining works or even by miners themselves who prefer to maintain privacy about their operations.
* Miners are distributed globally and are primarily driven by the cheapest electricity; they won't simply stop mining.
* The actual hash rate drop from the blackout was closer to 10%, not the 30-50% hyped figures.
* Hash rate changes (sudden spikes or drops) do not fundamentally affect the Bitcoin network's long-term operation. Bitcoin has a self-correcting "difficulty adjustment" mechanism that ensures blocks are produced consistently (every 10 minutes on average), even if hash rate changes significantly.
* Hash rate is generally "reactionary" to price; when Bitcoin's price goes up, more miners (even older, less efficient ones) become profitable and come online, increasing the hash rate.
The perception* of a hash rate drop, fueled by misinformation, is what influences price, not the drop itself.
* Market Strength and the Return of "Sleeping" Altcoins:
* The market appears to be "returning stronger" after the dip, with immediate buying activity indicating robust support.
* Still believes the market is in a "FOMO" (fear of missing out) phase and expects new all-time highs, potentially "breaking the charts" from 2017.
* Older "altcoins that got a lot of attention back in 2017" are seeing a "resurrection," leading rallies. Examples include Dogecoin, Neo, VeChain, Bitcoin Cash, Chainlink, Uniswap, IOTA, Nano, and Ontology.
* Dogecoin's success, despite its fundamental issues (whale ownership, lack of development), highlights that the current market cares more about "marketing, the narrative, the story" than pure fundamentals.
* Neo's strong performance is attributed to a new version release and effective marketing.
* The current market patterns, with "major dumps" followed by strong rallies, are seen as a common "set pattern with crypto," especially due to leveraged positions.
* Leverage Trading Insights & Strategy:
* Successfully closed a Doge Bull (3x leverage token) position on Friday, making a significant profit (around $200k), but did not re-enter after the Sunday crash.
* Explains the difference between "leverage tokens" (like Doge Bull) and "account leverage":
Leverage tokens (e.g., BULL/BEAR tokens on FTX): You can lose your initial investment in the token (it can go to zero), but your entire account* won't be liquidated. They offer magnified gains or losses.
Account leverage: The exchange leverages your entire account* (e.g., 20x leverage on a 1 BTC deposit means a 5% price drop liquidates your whole 1 BTC). This is much riskier.
* Personal philosophy: Uses leverage tokens for coins he doesn't want to "HODL long term" (e.g., Doge, Tron, Bitcoin SV), viewing them as a "yolo" gamble where if you're willing to risk 95% holding the spot coin, why not risk 33% for 3x upside?
* Does not advocate or heavily engage in account-based leverage, but acknowledges that experienced traders might use very low leverage (e.g., 0.5x) on established assets like Bitcoin to increase exposure.
* Crypto Hoaxes and Market Psychology:
* Shares a humorous anecdote about a neighbor who "gleefully" asked about lost life savings after the crash, only to be shown significant long-term crypto gains, highlighting the "salty" anti-crypto sentiment among some.
* Recalls the Vitalik Buterin death hoax in 2017 as an example of extreme FUD designed to manipulate prices, emphasizing that such tactics will likely become more prevalent and extreme.
* Introduces "Disbalancer" (anti-DDoS), a cybersecurity product that protects exchanges from denial-of-service attacks (like those seen during the crash). This is a personal investment, seen as "critical for future internet infrastructure" and a good long-term play given its relatively low market cap.
* Yield Farming and Altcoin Outlook:
* Yield farming rates have seen a slight decline from around 120-130% APY to 70-78% APY on stablecoins (e.g., Wing), which is still good but lower than previous highs.
* Regarding VeChain ($VET), which has rallied significantly (10x+ from his entry), he advises "extreme caution" for new entries due to its parabolic rise. However, he's still holding as he believes most people don't fully understand its value, suggesting more potential upside in the larger bull cycle.
* Maintains a "super optimistic" outlook for the overall crypto market, believing we are "still very early."
* A key indicator of the market top is when "every single person" (e.g., high school friends, not just finance professionals) starts asking about crypto. That stage hasn't been reached yet.
* Anticipates the "explosive growth" phase, similar to December 2017, where many assets experienced 50% daily gains for weeks, which is where "major profits can be made" despite the increased risk.
* Predicts that profits from big-cap projects will continue to flow into smaller altcoins, leading to higher gains in these "smaller caps" (though with more risk), reinforcing the "herd mentality" of the market.
* Notes that high Ethereum gas fees limit altcoin pumps, but activity is shifting to other smart contract platforms like Binance Smart Chain, Avalanche, Algorand, and Cardano (with DeFi layers like Ardana coming up).
Transcript
quite a fun time isn't it so yes we're gonna do a recap on what is happening in the cryptocurrency space today is the 19th of april the weekend we have a gigantic dip it was one of those days where yeah crypto fell by quite a bit and it did hurt it did hurt i mean uh so what was happening was on sunday i was actually out but during lunch i was checking on cryptocurrency prices and i saw everything was like minus 10 right it was just one of those flash crashes that this happens almost instantane...