Airdrops and Crypto Trading 2025 Review

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AI Analysis

Okay, here's a summary of the video covering June 2025 airdrops and crypto trading strategies.

This video reviews the current state of airdrops in June 2025, sharing updates on projects like Sunrise and Elsa, and discussing user experiences with farming successes and challenges. It also provides a detailed analysis of the Opening Range Breakout trading strategy based on six months of data, emphasizing the critical importance of risk management and building a systematic approach to both airdrops and trading.

Here are the key topics and details discussed:

* User Airdrop Experiences: The presenters are asking the community how much they've earned from airdrops over the past year, whether they enjoyed the process, and especially want to hear from those who got zero airdrops to find potential underfarmed opportunities. It seems many new people joined the community after the Monad hype.
* Sunrise Airdrop Update: Sunrise is launching its token soon and has a community round for public investors to buy the $RISE token.
* Sunrise Tokenomics & Vesting: The presenter isn't happy with the tokenomics, particularly the vesting schedule for the community airdrop (6.8% allocation). If you farmed testnet v1/v2, you're in this group. Only 25% is unlocked at launch, and the remaining 75% vests linearly over six months. This trend of testnet airdrops having vesting schedules is frustrating and seems to be increasing. Historically, testnet airdrops often had no vesting or much less.
* Sunrise Golden Egg NFT: A new NFT collection (5000 supply on Ethereum) is being launched, separate from the testnet NFT. Owning it gives bonus $RISE airdrop, boosted points, and exclusive access. Whitelist opportunities exist for community round investors, testnet participants, and partners. The presenter feels this is another potential "cash grab" and won't pursue the NFT unless they get whitelisted and the mint price is low or free.
* Sunrise Vision vs. Reality: While Sunrise has a good vision for connecting liquidity across ecosystems, there are concerns about potential lack of market demand and cash flow, similar to what's been seen with Celestia (TIA), leading to token price dumps. Expect the airdrop soon after the community round finishes.
* Elsa Airdrop Update: The points system is confirmed. You can mint an LCN NFT on the Base chain for $5 in ETH to get 1000 points. There's a 50k supply, but only about 2k have been minted so far, so it seems relatively under-minted. The presenter has minted theirs.
* Kururu & Other Waiting Airdrops: Still no TGE announcement for Kururu, despite ongoing events. Many other projects people farmed haven't distributed tokens yet, which is a common experience.
* Sunrise Wallet Registration: From the presenter's understanding, you don't explicitly need to register your wallet for the airdrop side (only for the community round), but you can register to be safe.
* OpenSea Airdrop Campaign: OpenSea has an XP campaign, but the presenter thinks it's geared towards existing ETH OG NFT whales and hard for newcomers to compete. They hope it might include older traders (from 2019/2020). They might look into it or even try flipping NFTs with a small budget to see if it helps qualify.
* Airdrop Landscape: Many projects this year are giving "dust" (low-value airdrops), even for influencers. The Crystal airdrop, for example, was worth dust for many despite getting a decent amount. Projects are becoming "sneaky" with tokenomics and potential dumping by VCs/teams.
* Underfarmed Opportunities: Sharing experiences (especially getting zero airdrops) helps identify potential underfarmed opportunities. Mentioned Axiom, Momentum Finance (which raised more money), Hyper Liquid Season 2, and the Hyper EVM ecosystem (27 protocols covered in a previous guide) as areas with potential leaderboard/point systems already active.
* Movement Mainnet Farming: The Movement mainnet (Parthonon V2) is live for interacting and potentially farming an airdrop. The presenter anticipates many testnet farmers won't transition to mainnet, which could be an opportunity. Despite recent price issues and scandal concerns, the tech is considered good by native DeFi users.
* Popkins Packs: Discussed buying Popkins packs on the secondary market (floor around 48 SOY). Opening one pack for ecosystem exposure might be okay, but competing with whales holding many packs seems challenging. Partnerships are developing, which could bring perks.
* Push Chain: The presenter hasn't heard of this project, seems easy to do but isn't hyped about it.
* Airdrop Farming Mindset: The most important thing is building a system and on-chain footprint, not just chasing immediate profit. View airdrops as a way to learn crypto and how money moves. Think from the project's perspective (funding, revenue model, cash flow) to gain an edge and min-max efforts. Build a niche (DeFi, GameFi) or manage multiple wallets (be mindful of hack risks). You are still very early in building this footprint for future mass adoption.
* Opening Range Breakout (ORB) Trading: The main trading strategy discussed is the ORB, specifically analyzing the first 15-minute candle of a market session (London/New York).
* ORB Data Analysis: After six months of data (Jan 1 - June 5, 2025), even trading blind breakouts above/below the first 15-minute candle's range shows a 49.11% win rate for market orders.
* ORB Win Rate & Risk-Reward: While 50% win rate is needed for break-even at 1R (risk-to-reward), crypto volatility means 2R setups are frequent. You only need around a 40% win rate (or lower for higher R) to be profitable targeting 1.5R or higher. The presenter targets 3R and has been compounding profits.
* ORB Benefits: It's seen as the best probability-based system for intraday trading, allowing positions to close within 8 hours and avoiding overnight funding fees.
Risk Management is KEY: Trading without risk management is strongly condemned and likened to gambling (using James Winn as a cautionary example of what not to do). The presenter is shocked people still don't use it. Risk management is the only* way to have control in trading.
Trading Mindset: Don't be happy about winning trades/profits, be happy that your system* (like ORB with risk management) is working. Gambling luck is temporary. Reading "The Best Loser Wins" is recommended to understand that managing losses is crucial for long-term success.
* Refining ORB Execution: Avoid trading ORB setups when the first 15-minute candle has a "really big" range; it's higher risk. Medium ranges are better for high probability 1R-2R setups. Small ranges have the highest R:R but also higher stop-out risk. For high R trades, trail stops.
* Exchange Fees: Notes that closing fees on exchanges like Bybit can impact profitability and sometimes seem high, especially if trades are wicked out.
* ORB Reversals: Data shows trading the first reversal after an ORB breakout has a low win rate (32.14%). Often, it's just a liquidity sweep before price continues the original breakout direction. It's better to keep it simple and trade only the initial breakout.
* Using Data & AI: The presenter plans to feed the collected ORB data into AI to look for deeper correlations between market sessions, noting he already sees similar institutional-like behavior to traditional markets.
* Volume Profile in Trading: Incorporating fixed range volume profile from the previous week's trading days (weekdays only) can identify the Point of Control (POC) as a potential "draw on liquidity" target for the current week. For BTC, the POC was recently around 109k.
* BTC Market View: BTC recently swept previous lows as predicted. It's currently bouncing, potentially trading within a defined range (range low swept). Weekly structure looks okay if $100k holds, otherwise could seek lower areas (maybe not 90k but the last line of defense area).
* TIA Market View: TIA hit a new all-time low ($1.90). While there's no confirmation it won't go lower, the presenter hopes for a reclaim of the $2.21 sell-side liquidity level as a strong support. Sees long-term bullish potential due to Coinbase index inclusion but doesn't know when a pump might occur. Sees previous week's POC as a potential target.
* Trading Focus: Only trades crypto due to its volatility.
* Final Takeaway: Emphasizes building a system (for both airdrops and trading) is more important and sustainable than focusing solely on short-term profits. View it like experimenting with builds in a video game – your system is your fishing rod for long-term success. Don't give up, even when projects are challenging.

Transcript

All right boys welcome back to Alpha Drop my name is Ron Martin here and this is June we are already halfway throughout this year 2025 and let's take this time to gather your side of the story we want to know over the past year how much have you earned from airdrops are you getting any aloe are you having fun that's the more important question if you've gotten a lot of airdrops let us know if you've gotten zero airdrops also let us know I think that's even more important we care about every eac...