Using AI to Find HIGH Quality Setups for Trading BTC

All right boys welcome back to AlphaDrop. My name is Ron. It's been a while but let's get back to streaming. Man I miss you guys so much bro. All right so for today we're going to be talking about using AI. In this case the tool that we've been using is Cursor and in fact this is the same tool that we've been using to make AirDroplet. This entire website 90% of the heavy lifting is made by Cursor. So I thought to myself hey you know since Cursor is able to do all of this why don't we also make the same for trading right because if we can manage to find high quality analysis and even better if we can trust a trading bot to execute the way we want it to then man trading is going to be super super easy right. Now a little bit of context here. So I know you guys have been looking at the market so much noise going on right. Trump tariffs whatever blah blah macro looking good looking bad you hear one half of the camp going bullish one half going bearish. Gives you so much headache right. It gives you like ah what was so so much so many opinions I don't know what to do but I'm telling you is that you don't need to rely so much on macro honestly you don't even really need oh based on my personal experience especially for the past three months is simply trading opening and closing my position within a given market session gives me so much peace like compared to last year when I've been trading right this year so much more peaceful because I know that even if I lose I still protect myself from getting wrecked and if I win I can win big and if you have been watching us for the past few streams when I shared with you guys my orb back testing data this is 42 43 percent win rate right but look if you start with 5k on January 1 this year assuming you trade all three of these sessions based on the same exact rule trading until now gives us 12.5k okay so we'll get into this later but I want you guys if you're tuning the tuning in now right I know you guys supporting us coming in early this is a very important video because it's not just the I'd say the data or trading that is the key takeaway here I'd say the key takeaway here really is I really highly suggest you guys to use cursor or any other AI coding editor which doesn't even require coding knowledge but you know based on the past few weeks we've been super busy because we needed to actually learn a little bit of programming a little bit of coding for debugging purposes that's the most annoying part when AI is not listening giving you like they're lying straight up to your face and you know that they're lying you're trying to get back some results that that you want to see but you know that the AI is lying that's when you need to code and look at the code to see what is going wrong so for the purposes of this video I'll just show you a brief summary just using cursor AI to really refine my favorite entry model which is orb right opening range breakout so you don't need to use AI to refine specifically for orb the thing is you can use any entry model that you like maybe some of you guys out there are big fan of wick off all right or what was it Elliot wave theory right or maybe even ICT trading that's all right any entry model doesn't matter as long as you understand it fully right then you start trading and then you notice our beginners luck right because when I found out about orb two months ago and I shared with you guys immediately when I learned that I think I ran into some beginners luck it started winning pretty pretty well but then after the tariff news came in after the big noise like so much noise in the market I started taking losing streaks and that really affected my my mental health right it started affecting a little bit even with 1% risk and this is what I talked about in the last stream is if you are going to be trading it right if you're gonna be doing this full-time if you're gonna be taking this seriously you really have to know what you're getting into not just for this week or next week but we're talking about in the span of months in the span of years do you have the mental fortitude to handle losing streaks like this right even with managing your risk properly can you handle else think of it is like playing League of Legends right when you're playing rank you will come upon losing streaks you look at you're gonna get tilted right so that is what I'm talking about so before we get into this data I'm just highly suggesting you guys to just play out with cursor you don't even need to use this for crypto stuff you can even use it for non crypto stuff you can even try like automating your gameplay something like that but of course here Michael's just been pushing us to to be using cursor to find an edge in any sort of system so for me personally I love trading right it's just so good I love it super fun it's like my new video game now so I want to use cursor to really help improve my trading so we've taken all of these data plugged it into cursor I asked hey can you you fetch historical data from by bits perpetual and plot out the range high range lows and then according to my orb strategy if the body closes above a range high that's assuming a long if a body candle body closes below a range low that's assuming short so that part was easy I cross-checked with the AI to make sure that it is not lying and it plotted all the way back to 2021 so I can't show you guys the cursor interface here because I have a bunch of private API keys there also some dot ENV files that I cannot share publicly but I just copy and pasted overall the entirety of the conversation that I've had with cursor here about the orb entry model and how we can find relationships and correlations between sessions and a little bit of context here is why I'm trying to find this is because I have a very big inspiration watching this guy Tom trades so he actually does have an 80% win rate when it comes to trading gold his primary strategy is he notices in the second hour of Asia of Asia market sessions there's large amounts of volume so he aligns low time frame with high time frame so if high time frame is a bear structure lower high lower low and then low time frame is forming higher high higher low he's looking for a short of a correction of a continuation of that high time frame trading so you don't basically he knows the exact behavior how gold is gonna be performing and I want okay I want the same skill set specifically for BTC right it makes sense because BTC these days has been a lot of institutions even countries have been expressing a lot of interest and buying opportunities for BTC right we know this because CME has the most open interest in BTC futures so they hold a lot of weight to how BTC price action is going right Binance being second you can even use orb actually for weekend trading but for the primary purposes of this I generally don't trade in the weekend and plus we're just looking at CME because those are actually the big guys placing their fat ass options order in the market right okay so let's dive straight into orb let's see how's it going you know what's up guys been a long time man it's been a long time yeah man I got a haircut I can't wait for alt season I just got to cut my hair and everyone in my family and friends saying I got to cut my hair and plus the hair keeps getting in my eye so it's really really annoying but we'll grow it out it takes about like three months to I need to choose this finally got money for a haircut okay let's get into cursors analysis for orb so I've been playing with cursor for about a week now and man the conversation inside my cursor app is very very long a lot of cross-checking a lot of corrections that needed to be done because even till now AI lies even with the best language model that you get so to make sure it's working you need to make sure that it's getting the right data but because trading is very simple it's so logical it's full of numbers AI can handle that part very very easily compared to air droplet air droplet is like super tricky to to code because when it comes to fetching airdrop information or project information AI either lies or they give very broad description so Michael is doing like a very advanced job when it comes to making air droplet and then I now comes to part where he has to do even more advanced stuff for air droplet but for me I'm not that advanced yet so let's just stick to the basics let's use the most logical language which is numbers that AI can understand so cursor okay so I asked cursor hey can you create a complete trading analysis system for analyzing opening range breakout entry model so it created a bunch of python files for me including datafet referrals this is a nano uploaded one file but the file closest to thefang bit or now it's notamlinear as well started in the right direction gate the signal without ray if notamrão and so on proof and here first I was like can you fetch data from TradingView and they say no because the API that they have in TradingView cannot be easily shared so I said okay any any alternatives here and they suggested you can actually pull historical data straight from exchanges so you can pull from Binance you can pull from Bybit you can pull from MEXC so that's actually a good thing right we can just go directly to the source to fetch data that was the part that actually worried me at first because I actually tried to build something like this couple of months ago but the TradingView API was such a big pain in the ass it's not very easily connected to the node that you're setting up on but Cursor is like hey we can just pull from Binance by bit easy easy done that's why any idiot can code now right I'm an idiot you can use Cursor to code think of any product that you want and just let just talk to Cursor like it's human and make sure to thank the AI because once AI starts taking over Skynet Terminator type shit they'll be like hey let him go the AI be like hey let him go he said thank you to the AI chatbot a couple of years ago but yeah I noticed you know being nice to the AI actually helps you smoothen your process I actually talked to it like a human unlike Michael Michael like it's like fuck you he's saying stuff like fuck you Cursor do this easy stuff like that all right back to the topic so yeah but a bunch of Python files and here these three parts I didn't even suggested it I didn't even thought of this part but they after you put in you type in your prompt right your request they'll give you a bunch of outputs and then on the chat log at the bottom of the chat log they'll also suggest they'll give you suggestions on how you want to improve your product so this three part these three parts right here are suggested by cursor so they're suggesting advanced orb analyzer so this includes metrics outside of price action so when I trade opening range breakout I simply look at price action that's it I don't even look at volume I don't even use any indicators sometimes I use you know buy side sell side because that part is it makes sense to me but I purely use price action but then if you want to improve your analysis you need to go further and look at other sources that you haven't been looking at that might actually be very helpful for your setup right so cursor here suggested advanced orb analyzer so this looks at volume volume for sessions and I was like oh yeah this makes sense right because Tom trades this guy notices in the second hour of Asia session there's always very high volume when in in gold in gold pairs right X AU right X AU so I was like yeah add add volume add any other indicators or or metrics that can help me analyze a high quality setup then this one is also interesting session relationship analyzer so it analyzes the behavior between three market sessions within a day and spend that out throughout weeks and weeks for the entirety of 21 2021 to 2025 which is the lifespan of by bits perpetual trading right because the earliest data that by bit perpetual has oh my god let me close this first let's go to the weekly is all the way back to 2021 right here oh my god even 2020 that's crazy hey so AI is lying to me in for this part maybe because it's March 2020 so why I said lying is because when I was talking to cursor they said it can only fetch as early as 2021 so I think this is assuming they cannot include 2020 because they're assuming 365 days for the entire year so okay this is good I'm getting live feedback from this so this is nice uh and then combined factor analysis so combining everything price action volume session just give us the comprehensive analysis so the initial analysis now I want you to take this with a grain of salt okay this is still not up to my expectation but it is sort of in line with what I have been noticing when I trade orb every single weekday so this definitely helps that you have some form of knowledge in the data that you are trying to create right me I especially for February March and April I notice sometimes BTC behaves a certain way but it is still a little bit random for us to determine if it's a high quality setup much like how Tom trades knows exactly where gold is going and the second hour of Asia session you following me here right so where was I again ah yes yes but still use this as a frame of reference okay so it analyzed at first I wanted to stress tests limit test cursor to see will are they able to handle a large amount of data so from 2021 to 2025 that's a lot of data and if you know if you've been using with L if you've been using LLMs you notice if you give them so much information and a lot of requests they often time cannot complete what you want them to do because there's just too much data to process plus if you use pro for cursor to you and you'll need to pay a lot in tokens for very complex requests but the good thing about cursor is I think the first two week you get pro trial which is nice so I stress test the first limit test it just to get get it familiar with what I want it to do so just analyze one year only right so between 2023 to 2024 it analyze orbs performance across Asia London and New York identified baseline success rates around 54 to for 57 percent so it's using the data that I gave cursor and analyze that just simply using market order longs or shorts on a breakout candle it gave us about 54 to 57 percent win rate for that year of 2023 to 2024 oh sorry it's two years right for so that's actually very good number right if you know the risk to reward cheat sheet risk to reward cheat sheet you know even targeting one are you are profitable right which is nice and the beauty about trading in crypto is because it's so volatile you can have high RR setups but when you're trading live it's very difficult to execute because you'll start feeling a little bit of emotions once your trade even goes in your direction because you'll be like I want more I want to close I want to close this trade later because I want more so we'll talk about that part and that part is still like tricky for me I told you before in the previous stream trailing SL too early is still my weakness and it still is it's still my weakness I rather just just get some a little bit now and then just compound that throughout the day but we'll talk about that later so for 2023 2024 54 to 57 percent win rate which is pretty pretty good that's actually not bad you can literally go afk and have a bot targeting one are you give this these simple commands you already be profitable for the year hypothetically speaking right but we want high quality setups and then it told us about session relationships so weak to moderate correlation 0.34 0.38 cursor says 0.5 is there there is some form of correlation so anything below that is weak correlation so it seems like between 2023 and 2024 there's a very weak correlation between the session range sizes and when we're talking about the session range sizes we're talking about the first 15 minute candle size of that candle the range let's I'll show you right so for example where are we right now let's go all the way by the current one right so this morning Asia session first 15 minute candle that's our range right horizontal ray boom boom so what this data is telling us is that there's it doesn't matter if the the size of your range is small or big because it has weak correlation and I think cursor can't really draw a conclusion on what I'm thinking because I kind of disagree with this because the thing is when you're trading orb if you've been trading orb you know this if the range size is small that means your stop loss is smaller and the chances of your stop loss getting taken out is much higher right but if it does go in favor if it never hits your SL then that's a huge huge risk to reward some sessions here actually got up to I think 18 are which is insane but that's only possible because the range itself is small right the range itself is small so this morning in your session this kind of range is actually not small but not big either so I think that's one part I want cursor to be a little bit good at so I think a little bit more help from the language side is needed for this purposes uh and then Asia session direction had minimal impact on London London shorts showed tendency to influence New York this is this direction this is what I noticed too this uh this year specifically 2025 I noticed whenever London is bearish New York is also bearish for 2025 because London and New York session overlaps right it overlaps yeah London and New York overlap but that's just um that's just my thought okay now comes to the extended analysis how do you guys see my hair I try to make this camera as small as possible uh okay all right now it's taken into account from 2021 so we have a much larger sample size now to do our analysis and it's showing us uh out of the when it comes to the relationships between the three market sessions Asia and London had the stronger correlation correlation meaning that if Asia is uh bullish London would also also be bullish a moderate correlation between London and New York so this is the part that is contradicting me right but I know that this part is true because I have single-handedly checked every single uh price point of the range high and range low going back from 2021 and it is indeed correct right but now the part is okay do I trust its analysis or not because these are the things that are way too long for me to check manually but let's just take it with a grain of salt and plus if you are a product developer if you're an app developer you know that the first time is never really what you wanted right there's prototypes then it takes you time to to get what you where you want it to go but this is interesting so it indicates momentum and volatility across sessions no shit right directional analysis Asia to London random however London to New York oh yeah this is the part I'm talking about right slight bearish bias for New York if London is also bearish this is what I noticed this year 2025 when I've been trading London sessions and then when it's New York session uh New York market opened that's the time around I go to bed because it's night time here in Hong Kong when New York opens their session I noticed oh shit yeah it is bearish for New York if London is uh also bearish New York consistently showed highest base win rate about 57 percent so this is interesting I do personally want to trade New York sessions but because it's late here in Hong Kong when New York market opens I don't know how I'm gonna go about this so we'll see now this one is also interesting sequential patterns did you know that triple wins are actually the most common at 16.2 percent now this number is low but uh when we're talking about sequential patterns right we're looking at we're looking at Asia London and New York right so sequential patterns is telling us uh the most common uh sequential patterns for a given day is all wins so if Asia is long London is also long New York is also long that's triple wins so this is uh good I like this but 16.2 percent is still too common uh still too low sorry session success showed weak predictive power for subsequent sessions exactly because 16.2 percent is very low but you know this is actually surprising because I would expect something like uh win win loss win to be the most common or even win loss loss or loss loss win or uh win win loss right one loss in between or even two loss in between right there's your uh what's that math term again um what's it called there's combinations and there's uh the p starts with the letter p permutations they're your permutations I would expect that to be the most common sequential pattern at least one loss or two loss for the day but the data is telling us three wins are actually the most common so that's actually telling us something but 16.2 percent is still too low New York maintained highest individual session success rate so so far just taking it with a grain of salt it looks like New York session no because most of the volumes coming from CME right has the most successful environment if you were to take your trade take it with a grain of salt okay not financial advice then advanced multi-factor analysis this is interesting volatility impact so this tells us how large a session can be so let's go back to April 7. April 7 was a very painful day for most of us right because we lost 80 very quickly and rated 74k so volatility uh in the definition of cursors is talking about how large these boxes are so you can see uh April 6 sunday New York had a very large move to the downside then Asia continued on even more rating 64k right which was previous our last month's low which was 76k so that was a very scary time for most of us right especially for for us who are holding alts right everyone's calling for 72k btc retest or even 52k btc retest that was the time but um yeah cursor is saying these sort of moves where the larger these boxes are so the color you see London this one this one's also big big reversal that's the uh its definition of volatility okay um and something like this is low volatility so it's like ranging sideways rather than up and down something like that so best performance and low volatility i find that cap no way new york is almost always high volatile uh very volatile at least what i noticed this year so maybe what cursor is telling us is that uh if we're talking about also 2021 since 2021 new york has been predominantly uh low volatility environment so that's also interesting London excels in high volatility i also find that cap no way this year London not that volatile it's almost always trading sideways but this one i agree asia mixed performance across volatility conditions uh and this is in line with this volume analysis where uh asia best with very high volume and this in in in on itself is also in line with what tom trades is talking about when he's trading gold during asia session uh the second hour of the asia session volume for gold has very very high uh volume right so i'm seeing a little bit of a pattern here i was sensing a little bit of how institutionals are operating in their war room right because think about it if you're in the if you're in a hedge fund right you want to get your job done before lunch and then any follow-up is after lunch then 5 p.m 6 p.m job's over head home so the most volatile times are always almost before lunch time so asia session uh second hour of asia session is 9 a.m hong kong time here and that's what i noticed too uh food for thought okay and then yeah let's see range size impact prefer smaller ranges okay all right time based patterns day of week wednesday strongest for london so what i'm attempting to do now i think moving forward is to observe closely how london performs on wednesdays um and then see if i can take my high quality setup there highest probability setups asia session 70 win rate so monday long plus high volatility so very high volume on monday an environment for a long gave us 76.9 percent win rate but before you get too hyped notice it says 26 trades so only um this environment is the most preferable but it doesn't show up very often but when it does show up it almost always happens so 26 trades since 2021 um is is like i wouldn't say waiting for what's the saying here like once in a blue moon right but this gives us good um thesis to work off of now my job moving forward is to find out even more within these environment can we also search in different time frames for example right because cursor right now is only looking at 15 minute time frame because that's the uh prompt that i gave it let's see here tuesday a thursday short plus low volatility 74.1 so 27 times that happened wednesday short plus low volatility 33 trades all right so if you're watching this video now and if you want to like a tldr take away of a high quality setup for btc trading it would be these for asia session these for london session oh 52 trades that's actually quite all right oh look at this new york session low volatility plus small range 199 trades 65.3 percent so this is good all right you can screenshot this and use it as a frame of reference to find high quality setups right so um a bit of a conflict here too because i want to be trading every single day even if it's forcing trades that's perfectly fine for me but maybe for you it's not maybe you prefer some uh very high quality setups so you might be waiting to trade right that's completely fine uh in fact i remember trader xo was talking about this this morning right was it eh yeah here so someone like trader xo is only doing two trades per week right so for me personally i think that's too low because that's not really my style i want to trade every day but for you maybe you're not my style maybe you're like trader xo style where you want to do one trade per week or two trade per week that's okay it's up to everyone's preference but this is good for the ones that want really high quality setup this is actually a good takeaway here these environment so you know your days you know monday thursday wednesday are close you need to keep a close eye on those days for asia session london london specifically wednesday and may for some reason may is going to be a hot month for london where shorts are more prevalent 40 trades 40 trades in may oh yeah since 2021 and then in new york keep an eye on tuesday okay so this is good we have some good data at least something to act on so that's interesting uh okay and then they're giving uh cursor is giving us their recommendation so best conditions by session asia focus on day specific setups with matching volatility london wednesday trades with medium volume new york low volatility conditions especially with large ranges directional bias asia is mixed day dependent london is short bias especially wednesday new york conditional on previous session and volatility seasonal patterns may is strong for shorts in london and new york wow dude it's gonna be may next month does this mean it's gonna be more short i really hope not september divergent bias london short new york long so yeah so far pretty good i'd say this is my prototype for um an analysis for orb built by uh cursor ai so i'd say it's still not really up to my expectation yet not really up to my standard it's not fully answering the questions of what i really want and that's actually comes with the limitation of llms um and this is the part where i really like i think i'd say if you want to take it to the next step to build even more comprehensive product i think you really do need to learn how to code just a little bit but hey at least now is the perfect time to code something because with all these tools anyone can code but it's all you're all you're sort of only like limited in the um in the uh beginner stage but hey at least do the beginner stage right how many people watching we got 15 people right now right so 15 of you guys if you're not coding you must learn cursor very very good so all in all very good we definitely will take a look more i want i want to be like tom trades i want to know exactly what's going on within the hour and btc repeats the same price action boy man that skill set would be so sexy all right let's answer some questions yeah man yeah dude uh unwillingly i had to get an haircut okay yeah man been a while oh and martin yes martin is on vacation he'll be back i think two weeks later but no worries solo bolo for now oh and plus also these days uh we have a lot of public holiday here in hong kong so uh very few people in the office right now it's just like me and some other uh people normally we have like 30 30-ish people now i think we have like five six so very very busy for the ones that need to stay here but hey i miss you guys man i was like i'm just gonna push back the task that i have to do and just talk to you guys it's been a very long time uh llama says basically learning by means of ai mistakes not gonna lie it's a good way to fill in the blanks that's the long and short of it yeah man the cursor is such a game changer and you'll see when you're using cursor they're typing out so many codes and at first i didn't understand what they were saying but as i'm starting to learn a little bit of python i noticed oh yeah that's that that's it does that function and this one does that function and then the next one is like the is this i've never seen this one before i asked ai hey what does this uh python language mean and then it's good just get ai to talk to another ai and you're good dude you're you're leveling up you're increasing your knowledge um did the boss man force you to change haircut because he hates to be reminded of svf yeah something like that even my dad is like you gotta cut your hair and i was like yeah and then i asked why and he's like yeah sbf you look like sbf i'm like that how do you know sbf when dad's been farming airdrops lately uh yes sir the ai overlord remembers yo vlt lemon tea it's been a while man uh i need ai to help me find out how they make vlt lemon tea uh is it possible to teach the ai to trade like ict yeah man it's just it doesn't matter what trading strategy personally uh in in the uh for ict concepts i only find buy side and sell side liquidity helpful the fair value gaps in those i'm like it's like too random like i mean yeah i i get it but i've like back tested it a little bit it doesn't make sense to me so i just moved on but buy side sell side makes very good sense uh shaydul btc price is so high now most people think they're too late i think that's the perspective holding people back what are your thoughts ron are we too late i think we're still early bro this pullback is completely normal dude uh you should watch trader sz stream his take on it it's very interesting i actually never zoomed btc's chart out to the yearly uh all right yeah he did a live stream on his youtube so you can watch that for a full reference but basically i'll shorten it okay so he's talking about like this let's go to btc t which is very interesting which is very interesting so if you look at the yearly you can see if you were to flatten it like this and view it as a five minute chart this is a buy no right this is a buy what's happening right now is completely expected if this is happening on a five minute candle it's like he's jokingly saying it but in a way it's true it's like for meme coins when they first launch it's usually like this right where it's like that and then like that and then like that right and plus we're only more than halfway into the bitcoin halving cycle that's the cycle that is exclusive for our market and it's like equities has nothing to do with that so even if stocks the macro is going to in the next 30 weeks btc would technically still not be effective because it is still operating within its own cycle so this is what i read from uh technical analysis john j murphy right so if you just read this this whole book which took me i think two weeks to finish you'll understand the psychology of uh cycles as well for different markets so something like i think what is it so so one reference here in this book is that uh harvest seasons for for food like for grain grain always dumps right around harvest season because there's just more supply in the market right so same thing for btc every having we're getting supply shocks less and less in circulation more and more demand for buying because everyone wants to own bitcoin now uh economically speaking btc will just keep going up and up and up and up and up right so just use that as a reference so it's uh and in terms of you know low time frame where we're at right now uh okay let's go back to the main and what i'm expecting price is going to do so currently we're still in the choppy range we're still in the indecision area uh that's eth let's go to btc so we're still inside this yellow range this yellow range is our low time frame range so a breakout above 86 and a close would signal a much more bullish sentiment for the market a break below 78k would signify a relatively more bearish sentiment for btc so right now uh job's not finished yet we're getting closer to that range but we still haven't reclaimed that range so i'll truly be happy once we see something like this uh say for example this week would be critical right we still have uh four more weekdays to go is it for yeah four more weekdays i want to see something like this then just continue on higher and higher and higher so in the meantime uh it's still indecisive still a lot of chops for btc but getting there it's quite all right um so i hope that helped out shy do not to mention there's also a lot of macro news going on such as uh global liquidity so there's a big lagging indicator there where it takes i think 50 to seven days 70 days for it to kick in so i think global liquidity started surging uh last month in march so if you remember if you watch that last stream i talked about i think we'll get the pump in may or some i hope the pump will happen next week or in the weekend man i hope so bro i hope so because after i unload my alts right so with this revelation of trading day trading of of just picking an entry model trade get high win rate if you have high win rate targeting one r you're profitable uh even with 40 win rate but with 3r or more you're still profitable the next cycle i'll purely just be doing that because right now about about i said 70 of my portfolio is in alts and i am down bad and when it comes to the my spot holdings for alts right and that was because i didn't know about the uh others dominance so this is a very valuable chart for me to learn sorry a very valuable chart for me to for me to decide moving forward am i going to be buying alts or am i going to be selling alts so i made most of my buys here in the mid range around uh late 2023 right then you had the mini alt season from january to march 2024 i was like yes i'm a genius this is going to keep going high but then after uh april things started dumping then some of my alts are just dumping and dumping and dumping you know they're finding new floors i was like man i'm gonna make sure i'm not gonna make the same mistake next cycle so all in all uh the next cycle i'll know that i should be buying alts if the dominance for others is low so uh for reference it will be the order block the weekly order block of the previous cycle so this order block here is the is from december uh november december yeah december and january sorry sorry december 2020 and january 2021 so this was just before the huge bull run in 2021 right so for context i think when's the next bull cycle gonna be is it gonna be like 2029 or 2028 so i'll know just to see this chart how low it goes and if it forms an ob where it stalls or does a v shape uh v shape reversal those are also areas of interest uh that's when i'm gonna be starting to buy alts right as a reference to future me to future ron right as of now this cycle i'm still waiting for 12.5 percent to be reclaimed and there i'll start unloading my position and just you know just put it all on stables and just see how how how far i can go with trading also a bit of limitation for this is this is a very good strategy for small to medium account uh small to medium accounts but if you have a large account right so if we're talking about if you have i think maybe like a million or 10 million dollar margin in your account this is actually very high risk and plus it does affect you mentally because think about it one one percent risk of one million is ten thousand dollars you lose that trade you lose ten thousand dollars that's gonna affect your mental right but this you know if you're risking one thousand uh if you have five thousand dollars one percent of that is fifty dollars so you're only risking fifty dollars so this is what i noticed too i've been talking to a lot of traders these days and most of them do uh they use high risk entry models but offset with their their own uh strategy they also have other strategies they implement but they they grow from small accounts to mediums so usually they go for they start with like 5k some start with 1k uh some even start with 50k for them that that's considered small and then they just grow it uh and that's up to them to how far they want to take that account to so if they have 5k maybe they want to like 10x that and make 50k from that account or for 50k they want to maybe 2 or 3x that account take it to 100k 150k that's their strategy so you need to think about these sort of stuff um before you start trading right you need to and that was my aha moment it was compartmentalizing these steps and really breaking down your money into different accounts and growing there so that's why it's better and the high iq traders they even do like 10 plus accounts like small accounts so they would have 1k across 10 accounts so in total that's 10k but because the their risk management for all of those 10 accounts are one percent right that'd be risking 10 dollars for every trade the compound effect is real if you add all up all the profit but you execute the same trade across those 10 accounts so it's insane i only have enough attention for one account two max i'm i'm also trading on mexc on top of the uh bybit a let's see mohammed gaji says some whale on hyperliquid opened a long position on eth with 5x leverage you know these days these sort of news uh is like noise to me so i think because you don't know if they're doing it to stunt or if they're really doing it because they have some insider information so so many variables there i just like ignore it just look at the chart chart tells you where price will go wants to go not not will go what's your market prediction for may well it depends on the monthly close for this month so let's go to btc and i'm actually getting very bad uh getting better now at looking at like high time frame like we're talking about high time frame so let's use a cleaner chart i don't want to touch this one let's use this one so monthly monthly if we get green we should still expect some chop but uh you can see this is what we're experiencing this month is actually pretty bullish because we've already taken out last month's low which was 76k right when btc hit 74k last week but now the body is above last month's close so relatively speaking it's bullish but let's see how far btc is going to go let me look at it one more time on the four hour um yeah but all in all i want to see 104k to be flipped for continuation of all-time high for now my immediate concern is can we reclaim 86k hold that and just move on and take out this supply here at 95k that'd be nice to see so it's very reactionary oh where's angela angela's busy angela wang when forgotten runiverse stream hey we can stream tomorrow uh uh i'll take off his time to play the game it's work bro michael will be like yo why are you playing nah man we're streaming right so you guys gotta back me up if michael comes in the room and say why are you playing forgotten runiverse and then you guys in the comments better spam he's working he's working okay uh but forgotten runiverse it's been fun yeah i had a little bit of free time and just played a little bit i'm still not level 25 yet i'm at level 22 but i've completed almost all of the dungeons i just need to finish the uh beneath the moon and uh the golden queen yeah the golden queen one that one that one uh uh yeah and that would be the final stage but i think you guys already finished forgotten runiverse now you're just farming for recipes um om is for revenge longing oh yeah dude dude that was crazy ohm dump so hard and you know the crazy thing was last week me and martin were talking about uh mantra we're talking about ohm and i said oh you know it's crazy how ohm didn't really dump hard like it dumped very little with all the noise going around in the market right you notice that btc eth soul almost all of the alts would dump hard whenever there's a lot of noise in the market but ohm only sees like minus two percent minus three percent whenever there's a dump so i just said straight out that this shows us that the supply is actually kind of centralized so on-chain data tells us that it's not really that centralized but i say it is come on right you have so you're you're looking at one party or multiple parties holding that amount of supply and any buys any cells don't really make a big impact for the market cap of ohm right it's like meme coins so what had been going on for the past months i realized oh yes ohm supply was hella centralized and i said one day i jokingly said this i said if whoever controls that supply dumps it's going to nuke and i can't believe it like yesterday morning i woke up oh ohm fucking dumped right but i didn't short this but bro this would have been a godly short um yeah man hard to say i don't know if this is ever going to come back but what i heard is that it's a coordinated attack on ohm so i think some some i think someone in mantra pissed off the centralized exchanges i don't know who whichever market makers and they have beef and then they just decided to pull liquidity and just liquidate all of the longs so it was very very scary whatever happenings right now is like beef between mantra and some other centralized exchanges other than that i don't know much about it but dude 10 thanks for the airdrop by the way 10 we only get 10 unlock the rest of them is like what invested monthly man peanuts now peanuts um maybe ask the ai about that one first which one i want eth to pump i want eth to pump too man kami says that book is scam why why is that book scam i mean it was very long and like uh repetitive but that's also a good takeaway because if something is repetitive in the book it means it's a principal uh high pre-market 55 cents how many have you got i'll i'm gonna check today's wallet connect token listing did you get the airdrop for me no i barely use wallet connect to connect my wallet so i did not get the wallet connect airdrop and duka duke says hey where you guys have been it has been a while so we've been very busy there was web 3 festival last week uh and we had to uh just you know go out walk around film content also film for box mining so we've been busy with that uh and a lot of meetings a little bit of networking and the air droplet app we need like in our team me martin michael she's a lot of hands on the coding part for air droplet we want to make it the best tool for airdrop hunters uh but hey let us know you know we'll still we'll definitely still be live streaming airdrop content don't worry about that uh i wait after though all right but to be honest the having cycle is so different can't tell if you can miss the pump at any time this is okay look at this when in doubt zoom out zoom out zoom out zoom out but zoom out with the 50-day moving average also known as the golden line uh hold on we'll just use simple 50 50 50 day charting out the weekly so every time we had a big dump so august 5 was the israeli war plus the japan carry trade incident right it respected the 50-day moving average september as well the past few weeks as well so it looks like it's bouncing back up a close below the moving average is technically classified as a bear market right the last time that happened was the end of the 2021 bull run so december 2021 we already had a break below the moving average tried to reclaim then dump right but so far we're still respecting this even the bears respect this right i think you know you've been seeing dr prophet's tweets on twitter so this is what he's talking about so just always use this as a reference on the high time frame on the macro to decide oh no this is the end of the bull market just look at the moving average all of the best traders in the world just use the moving average to determine a high time frame movement so so far we're still above right any touch here is uh bullish bullish bullish bullish bounce um hey yo i wasn't on grinder hello cherry well where's martin martin's on vacation he's chilling but he'll be back two weeks later shorty yang says will ip dump two is it because it's moving like ohm small dumps during the noise let's see whoa i haven't looked at the supply yet but let me see but this is a very interesting observation like i jokingly made a hypothesis and it actually turned out to be true for mantra web3 event looks so empty yeah dude because last week yeah btc hit 74k i noticed so many people were on their phones they weren't smiling i bet you they were just looking at their position um mohammed gazu says the on-chain data shows the team did deposit a lot of ohm on all the exchanges and dumped it but the team always denies it there you go so there's our centralized party martin will need to wait for next cycle all right boys man it's been lovely catching up with you guys keep farming and if you're interested in trading all you have to know is you just need to pick an entry model that makes sense to you back test it and then refine it with other data you can do this manually certainly but because we have years of years of historical data it will take months even years to have a comprehensive analysis so if you're interested in trading use ai to really help you out but also the same time make sure ai does not lie because ai lies a lot okay but it's very hard for them to lie if you have numbers all right logical language they can't lie when it comes to that and it's just very easy cross-checking on the exchanges that you're using with the price points that the ai tool is giving you if they're correct then just work on that one right but this is super super exciting i can't wait to really build a very high quality comprehensive analysis for my favorite entry model orb and just going it further so in terms of progress i'd say it's like 15 of what i want so that's so much room for me to build uh and we'll see all right you guys know what to do smash out the like button subscribe to the channel my name is ron