HUGE War Between Long and Short WHALES!
Description
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AI Analysis
Alright, so this video dives deep into the wild market action where huge whales are duking it out. There's this "hyperliquid insider" who put on a massive Bitcoin short, prompting a coordinated effort by other big players to hunt him down and liquidate him. The main message is to be cautious of these whale games, which often prey on retail fear, and to stick to your trading strategy amidst this volatility, while also looking ahead to market drivers like the FOMC meeting and the upcoming release of their own Airdrop farming app.
Here are the key points and details discussed:
The Whale War:
- Things are getting really crazy with a "HUGE War Between Long and Short WHALES!", which they also call "bulls versus hyperliquid insiders".
- This drama unfolded while Asia was asleep.
- A specific "hyperliquid insider" opened a very large short position on Bitcoin, reportedly targeting around $69k-$70k.
- Immediately, a group of major whales, including Justin Sun and CBB (from Binance), reportedly teamed up specifically to "hunt him down" and liquidate his position.
- CBB even tweeted, openly asking for other large players ("seven figs size only") to DM him to join the team effort to "fuck him over" and liquidate the insider, expressing a desire for "no more fud going on in BTC". This highlights just how big and public this "game" between whales has become.
- After the counter-attack began, the insider added more collateral to his position.
- The insider also cancelled some orders and potentially was selling on Coinbase at the same time, suggesting they might be playing on multiple venues.
- Ultimately, the insider closed their ETH short but kept the BTC short open, which was reportedly moving against them ("creeping towards his entrance").
Warning Against Whale Tactics and FUD:
- They feel these "hyperliquid insiders" are deliberately targeting the fear of retail traders.
- Just because someone has a large public position on a platform like Hyperliquid doesn't mean it's their only position; they likely have funds elsewhere (like potentially on Coinbase in this case).
- This specific tactic (a big public short followed by a dump) worked the first two times this particular insider allegedly tried it, but the third time it didn't play out as easily.
- They use the "Fool me three times" analogy, suggesting it's now obvious these are basic tactics attempting to exploit retail fear.
- They strongly warn people not to fall for these tricks or follow these whale trades, especially not with their full portfolio.
- A whale can simply close their large position for a small percentage gain (which translates to millions for them), while retail traders who followed them could be trapped and liquidated.
Market Psychology and Trading Strategy:
- They describe the current market as "hunting season" and a "playground, aka war zone," between insiders and people on Crypto Twitter (CT).
- It's perceived as very difficult to play swing trades right now because of "douchebag whales trying to wick out retail orders."
- Sticking to a consistent strategy (like their "Orb" strategy, mentioned briefly but not detailed) is how they mitigate downside risk in this environment.
- Mastering trading psychology is highlighted as the key challenge, even if you know how to trade.
- They are personally working on their psychology by risking only 1% per trade and journaling their trades, finding it "so fucking good" for discipline.
A Personal Trading Example (S Coin):
- One of the presenters shared a recent short trade on a coin called 'S'.
- They took the trade because it looked like a setup that had worked successfully before on another coin ('Fartcoin').
- The trade on 'S' resulted in a stop-out (a loss).
- Upon journaling the trade, they identified the mistake: not waiting for confirmation and trading near a critical key level (50 cents for 'S') that had historically acted as strong support or resistance.
- They note that 'S' might see a run only if ETH performs well, as they see a strong correlation between robust altcoins and ETH's price action.
ETH Price Outlook:
- It's important to look at the weekly candle close every Monday to gauge the overall trend.
- ETH just had three consecutive red weekly candles, with the lowest dump last week reaching $1753.
- They compare this pattern to a similar instance of three red weeks in July/August, which was followed by a relief bounce and consolidation before a larger breakout.
- On the 4-hour chart, ETH is currently trading sideways.
- They identify a very strong support level at the purple line, which represents the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level drawn from the January 2023 swing low (around $1820-ish).
- The area around the 0.786 seems to be getting a good reaction so far.
- They suggest any break below the 0.786 ($1820-ish) could just be a "deviation" (a temporary dip below support), but preparing for the possibility of this dip is wise.
- They believe that if the bull market is to continue, the current price level near the 0.786 Fibonacci might represent the "cheapest that you can get ETH for" right now (stated as a personal opinion, not financial advice).
BTC Price Outlook:
- Unlike ETH, Bitcoin's weekly candle last week closed green, suggesting ETH is lagging behind BTC slightly.
- Regarding whether BTC will go to $69k (the insider's target) or lower: no one knows for sure, but lower is "definitely a possibility".
- This possibility exists because the Fibonacci golden pocket drawn from the macro swing low to the all-time high is somewhere between $50k and $53k.
- A dip to the 50-53k range would be "completely normal for BTC" when zooming out on the chart.
Upcoming FOMC Meeting:
- A significant macro event is the FOMC meeting, scheduled for "in two days".
- At this specific meeting, a rate cut is not expected; the markets are only pricing in a very modest 5% chance of a 25 basis point reduction, and this lack of expected cut is already reflected in the crypto market's slow movement.
- The meeting will include updated economic projections and the "dot plot" (which shows policymakers' future rate expectations), but Jerome Powell often downplays their significance.
- Significant changes in these projections are unlikely unless there are substantial shifts in economic conditions.
- Inflation is stable but showing signs of softening, and the impact of tariffs/trade policies is also a factor they monitor.
- Market reactions are expected to remain cautious with slow, sideways movement, mirroring the current state. The Fed will maintain its current stance while keeping options open for future adjustments based on incoming data.
- Looking at the FedWatch tool, potential rate cuts are forecasted further out, like May 2025 (27.2% chance) or even an aggressive cut in June 2024 (18.6% chance).
- The possibility of future rate cuts (potentially priced in over the next couple of months leading up to June) could lead to a "relief bounce for ETH and BTC on the high timeframe." This aligns with the hopeful outlook for the weekly candle patterns.
Upcoming Airdrop App:
- Exciting news: they are releasing their own Airdrop app "tomorrow".
- The app is designed to incorporate a lot of user feedback (reflecting about 60-70% of suggestions).
- It aims to help users not just track their Airdrop checklists but also compound their research into future projects.
- The core goal is to help users evaluate Airdrop farming with a clear return-on-investment mindset: "how much time will I spend in order to get how much money?".
- It will make it easy to see what projects you are farming and decide if they are "worth your time".
- They confirm the app will be free for users to use initially, and they will figure out monetization later.
Transcript
Welcome to AlphaDrop. My name is Ron. Martin here. And today, things are going very crazy between longs and shorts. And I think in other words as well, bulls versus hyperliquid insiders. Quote-unquote insiders. It's crazy. This has all been happening when Asia was asleep. And this morning when we woke up and we looked at CT, everything was talking about, everyone was talking about this hyperliquid insider doing a very big short again, right? Targeting around 69, 70k price for BTC. So what's goi...