Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies rallied very strongly yesterday and today as we approach the Bitcoin Halving (12 days left). We look at what happened in terms of trade volume, technical analysis (b...
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies rallied very strongly yesterday and today as we approach the Bitcoin Halving (12 days left). We look at what happened in terms of trade volume, technical analysis (bull flags), and some of the strategies. We also look at Ethereum 2.0 and the huge developments on that front.
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AI Analysis
Bitcoin markets are making some wild moves, with prices nearly touching $9,000, driven by significant bullish momentum and increasing trade volume ahead of the halving. Meanwhile, there are exciting developments on the Ethereum front with Ethereum 2.0 testnet validators now live, offering a glimpse into future staking opportunities. Discussions also delve into China's new digital currency, DCEP, and critical considerations for decentralized finance (DeFi) security.
Here’s a deeper dive into what’s happening:
* Bitcoin prices recently surged, showing lots of green, with Bitcoin moving up almost 10% and nearly reaching the $9,000 mark. It was interesting to see this bullish momentum coming from Asia, as typically the West is more bullish. * Analyzing the charts, multiple "bull flags" were appearing, indicating incremental jumps in price, accompanied by huge spikes in trading volume. * Prior to this surge, there was a lot of uncertainty in the market. Bitcoin had been in an ascending wedge, holding at the top end for days, with decreasing volume. This uncertainty stemmed from the upcoming halving, which could either cause FOMO (fear of missing out) leading to upward momentum or a sudden downward squeeze on over-leveraged long positions. * An unconventional strategy was adopted using FTX "move contracts." These contracts are special because their value increases if the price of the underlying currency moves, regardless of the direction (up or down). * The strategy involved accumulating these move contracts, providing protection for existing "hodl" positions. If Bitcoin prices dropped, the move contracts would still increase in value, mitigating losses. If prices went up, the contracts still benefited from the movement. * Once prices started to move, the move contracts were sold early to cash out profits. Even though they were sold a little early, it was a successful strategy for managing risk and capitalizing on volatility. * Bitcoin got rejected twice at $8,950, just shy of $9,000, and is now entering a new, somewhat uncertain channel. * There was a huge amount of trade volume yesterday, particularly on leverage-focused exchanges like Binance Futures, OKEx, and BitMEX, which were processing billions of dollars in 24 hours. This suggests many people are entering over-leveraged positions, potentially leading to further spike actions. * CME Futures, often covered by mainstream media, don't actually play a significant role in Bitcoin's market movements. Their volume yesterday was only around $15 million, which is negligible compared to the billions traded on major crypto derivative exchanges.
### Ethereum 2.0 Updates
* Ethereum 2.0 is the biggest news, bringing a massive set of upgrades to address scalability issues and impact the network's economics. * The significant news is that actual code has been released, allowing people to run testnet validators right now, proving that progress is being made beyond just talk. * A personal Ethereum validator node was set up, which is currently earning 0.0137 testnet ETH daily. This demonstrates the future potential for earning real ETH by staking and validating the network. * A full video explaining Ethereum 2.0 in detail is in preparation, highlighting its importance and what to expect.
### China's Digital Currency (DCEP)
* There was a recent discussion with Matthew Graham from Sino Global Capital about China's digital currency, DCEP (Digital Currency Electronic Payment). * The discussion highlighted contrasting views on DCEP's impact. Some believe DCEP could advance blockchain adoption by creating bridges between the digital renminbi and various blockchain projects. * However, Matthew Graham holds a more cautious view, emphasizing that DCEP could introduce significant control elements by the Chinese government, especially concerning larger transactions, which requires careful monitoring.
### Decentralized Finance (DeFi) Security
* An upcoming webinar will focus on the crucial topic of decentralized finance (DeFi) security. * DeFi is a key objective for Ethereum and other smart contract platforms, but it comes with risks because "code is law," meaning vulnerabilities can be exploited by hackers, as seen in incidents like the D-Force hack. * The webinar aims to gather security experts to discuss how to ensure that these decentralized contracts remain secure once they are published and in use by the community.
Transcript
Hey guys, it's Michael and welcome back to Box Mining. As you can probably see by the smile on my face, Bitcoin prices made some drastic moves yesterday. And in fact, if you just look at this mini chart here, it's a lot of green. In fact, we had Bitcoin moving up almost 10% and nearly, almost just barely touching that 9,000 mark. So we're almost ready to get those over 9,000 memes ready, but not just quite yet. So this video, we're going to talk and touch a lot about what's happening with Bitco...
Hey guys, it's Michael and welcome back to Box Mining. As you can probably see by the smile on my face, Bitcoin prices made some drastic moves yesterday. And in fact, if you just look at this mini chart here, it's a lot of green. In fact, we had Bitcoin moving up almost 10% and nearly, almost just barely touching that 9,000 mark. So we're almost ready to get those over 9,000 memes ready, but not just quite yet. So this video, we're going to talk and touch a lot about what's happening with Bitcoin. And I'll talk a little bit about a few of the unusual strategies I deployed during that volatile time yesterday. In many ways, for me, it was about adapting to the situation and potentially mitigating risk. And that was my strategy going forward as well. We're also going to touch a little bit upon the recent updates about what's happening. A lot is happening on the Ethereum front with the validator nodes coming up. We also have the mining front, some little changes here. And obviously the big one, the Bitcoin happening, everyone's been doing the countdown to that. We have that countdown coming up right here as well. And a little bit of explanation about what's going on and what to expect in around roughly 12 days from now. So it's going to be an action-packed episode. Of course, everything covered here is my personal opinion, not financial advice. Let's get right into it. So let's talk about Bitcoin markets first, because that was pretty much the biggest mover yesterday. We're sitting at 8,800 right now. And yesterday, if you can just see that, it was extremely eventful, just going up and up and up. It was kind of funny because yesterday I was actually out. It was my exercise day. And I got the notification that Bitcoin made some drastic movements. And it was during that time I was like, oh my god, Asia is actually quite bullish. Because normally it was the West that's more bullish. But coming into the afternoon, the West wasn't awake yet. America wasn't up. So yeah, I was kind of like, wow, okay, we've seen some bullish momentum here. Something interesting is developing and happening. So from that time onwards, it was extremely interesting if you actually look at it in terms of painting bull flags. So if you just zoom in here, let's take it to 15 minutes. You pretty much see multiple of these bull flags appearing up. So it just kind of jumped in increments. And it was extremely exciting. We saw huge spikes in volume going forward. Now, prior to this, I think it was actually quite interesting to explain to you guys my strategy. Because I've been showing you guys this chart. And what I was saying here is that over the long-term timescale, let me just jump back to one hour again. It makes it a little bit clear. So Bitcoin was in this ascending wedge for the longest amount of time. And then Bitcoin just kind of held to the top end of the edge for quite a few days. And during that time, I think there was actually quite a lot of uncertainty in the market because the volume was decreasing. And there was two kind of major factors. One major factor being the halvening, which I'll explain a little bit more in detail why it's quite important. So the halvening can mean a very strong upward momentum because it could cause FOMO, fear of missing out. But at the same time, there was always this fear of a squeeze on the longs. If everyone was expecting Bitcoin prices to go up, everyone was buying longs, maybe in over-leveraged positions, Bitcoin could also just kind of suddenly spike down, maybe catch people off guard for a moment, which was the uncertainty there. That was what I was saying. It could potentially go up or go down. So in many senses, you can also just view. I always kind of find it funny to check out TradingView and the comments, the ideas on TradingView here. So you can actually see out of these archived comments, it was like, Oh, Bitcoin, 6,500 before we really take off. So you can see that the fear was there and you can see that it could have gone both ways. So I adopted some slightly unconventional strategy this time. So I was talking to you guys about the move contracts on FTX. So just before going on about kind of explaining what the strategy was, I'll talk a little bit about the move contract and why it's so special. So as the name implies, move contracts go up if the currency price moves. And it doesn't matter which direction. It moves up, great. It moves down, great. As long as it moves within a certain time period. So overall, the strategy this week was that I've accumulated these move contracts. Reason being is that it's kind of like a twofold. One was because I was speculating that it's going to move. Second of all, if it moves, I'm actually quite protected. So if it really does move downwards, then because I have a hodl account, because I, you know me, I'm a very big hodler, then my hodl position is actually more protected because if it moves down, if Bitcoin prices moves down, this contract price will still also increase. So I gained protection there. And also if it moves up, great. Still same thing. I benefit from the move. And then the philosophy going out yesterday was when the prices did move, you can see these little red arrows happening up here. This is when I did sell those move contracts. So I did sell a little bit early. So you can see, you can see the some, some sales at 800, 900 going all the way up to a thousand ish in that price. So that's kind of the unconventional strategy I adopted. And the reason why I cashed out most of these contracts was because they're settling soon today. Now, completing the story from yesterday, you definitely see almost we're trying to push for 9K, but we got rejected off 9K. In fact, we got rejected twice at 8,950. So you can see two attempts trying to go up to 9,000 again, past that number. And we're kind of entering this new channel here right over at this edge. So now we are entering a little bit more of an uncertainty as to what's going on. And I definitely saw a huge amount of trade volume yesterday, which means that very likely, especially on the leverage front, there could be very spike actions happening as people might enter over leveraged positions. So just to look at the volume yesterday, you can see, but Binance Futures, OKEx, BitMEX, they were all trading at billions of dollars per in the 24 hour period. So you can see how many contracts were being swapped and the amount being swapped is quite a lot. A few people asked me about CME Futures and expiry. I do want to just point out that although mainstream media, especially Forbes, Bloomberg, they tend to cover CME because the traditional markets are more familiar with CME Futures, actually CME Futures really don't take that much of a play here. So if you look at the volume yesterday, it was sitting around, let's round it up to around $15 million. So that's not much considering all the main crypto derivative exchanges. We're taking up billions of dollars of volume. Moving up on other crypto news, I think the biggest thing I'm looking at this week is Ethereum 2.0. So I actually spent a lot of time investigating what's going to happen and what are the changes. So Ethereum 2.0, just as the name suggests, the 2.0 there, huge slew of upgrades coming to Ethereum to deal with issues such as scalability. A lot of critics were criticizing Ethereum for not being able to scale. And also there's a huge impact on the economics as well. So a full video describing what is happening is coming up soon. The reason why we're all looking at it now is because actual code has been released and you can actually run testnet validators right now. So instead of just saying, oh, it's coming, things are being done. Here's kind of a rough sketch. Stuff is actually being released. And we actually started running a Ethereum validator node. So this is my validator node up here. And it's actually earning me testnet Ethereum over time. So every day it's earning me 0.0137 testnet ETH. And this is going to show you guys a little bit about what's going to happen in the future in terms of economics too. Because this is, that's going to be a case. It's going to be real ETH soon to be used here. And you can earn ETH by staking and validating the network. So anyways, the article is up already. You can check it out down below. I'll put a link about the Ethereum 2.0 article. But also a full video is also coming up. I'm preparing that. That's my main video preparation this week. Also to ping you guys a bit, we also had a discussion this week on China's digital currency, DCEP. And this is with Matthew Graham from Sino Global Capital. So he's a Westerner in China who can speak Chinese. And he's been looking very closely at digital currencies and digital currency investments. So we had a discussion with him about what his expectations for. He had a full research team to research what China is doing with DCEP. What was interesting about this webinar session was kind of the contrasting views we had. Because we've seen a lot of views in crypto saying, yeah, DCEP could potentially push blockchain forward because we can have multiple projects that could jump and form these kind of bridges between DCEP currency, which is a digital renminbi, directly into various blockchain projects. And I definitely see that happening. But also Matthew is on the other side. He's on the flip side of saying DCEP could potentially have a lot of control elements. And we have to be very, very careful about how China implements DCEP and the details of the restrictions, especially for larger transactions going through. And lastly, today, I just wanted to say we have a webinar that's coming up about decentralized finance. We know that decentralized finance is one of the key objectives for Ethereum and other smart contract platforms. But of course, the question of safety. If the contract is decentralized, that means code becomes law and hackers could potentially breach it, just like in the case of D-Force. So here we gather a few security experts. And this is part of the OK Academy talks, which I'm going to be a moderator of. What we're going to talk about is security. How can we make sure that these contracts are secure so that once they're placed on decentralized platform, once the developers have published it, it still remains secure for everyone to use. So that's coming up today. Make sure you don't miss it. It's at noon UTC. And yet again, link down below to check it out. And guys, that concludes today's episode. I hope you guys have a great long weekend if you're having that. We also have, lastly, the live stream is going to come up on Friday, Hong Kong time. Something I'm doing is I'm putting all the events on BoxMining website. So you just go to main website, events will be here. The live stream, cryptocurrency, coronavirus will also be happening in roughly one day's time. So, of course, stay tuned for that. And with that, guys, we're going to have the abrupt ending coming up really soon. I hope you guys like this video. Click the like button down below. Subscribe to this channel. I'll see you soon.