Bitcoin Breaks Down $20K: Now Below 2017’s Previous All-time High

Boxmining avatar Boxmining
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Description

Bitcoin Breaks Down $20K: Now Below 2017’s Previous All-time High. Ethereum broke down below $1000, going into 3 digit territory. The crypto bear market is here - but is there any hope for the markets...

AI Analysis

The crypto market is currently experiencing a deep bear market, with Bitcoin dropping below $20,000 and Ethereum falling into three-digit territory. Despite the dramatic price declines, the presenter remains remarkably calm and even indifferent, drawing on his extensive experience across multiple market cycles. He emphasizes the importance of emotional detachment in trading and views the current downturn as a necessary phase that offers unique opportunities for long-term investors.

Here’s a breakdown of the key discussions and insights from the video:

* The Current Crypto Bloodbath & The Presenter's Zen: Bitcoin has plunged below $20,000, sitting at $19,763 at the start of the stream and even dipping further to $19,000. Ethereum is also hurting, dropping to $992, falling below the psychological $1,000 mark. It’s a "crazy time" in the markets, but the presenter is incredibly calm. He explains that after being in the market for so many cycles, through both massive ups and downs, he’s learned to suppress emotion and is now "indifferent" to the losses. He finds humor in the situation, even laughing about the huge losses he’s experienced on his Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoin holdings. For him, it’s just "part of crypto."

* Market Fear vs. Reality: The market is gripped by "maximum fear," with mainstream media "freaking out," which is usually a sign to buy, but the current fear is even deeper. There’s widespread concern about Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy CEO) potentially being liquidated if Bitcoin falls further, which could trigger a cascading crash. However, the presenter isn't too concerned about this specific fear, having seen "so many crypto deaths" before. He feels that the "uber bulls" or "apes" have exhausted their funds and their narrative, and he’s personally bored by the constant fear-mongering from mainstream media.

* Lessons from Past Cycles and Trading Philosophy:
* The "Third Cycle" Perspective: Drawing parallels to previous bear markets, he references a tweet from Binance CEO CZ, highlighting Bitcoin’s historical pattern: $1,000 high in 2013 followed by a $200 low (80% drop) and $20,000 high in 2017 followed by a $3,000 low (85% drop). This suggests that the current drop from $68,000 to $19,000 (around 78% down) is within historical norms, implying that further downside or a prolonged period of consolidation isn't out of the question.
* HODLing as a Strategy: The presenter is a committed HODLer, storing his Bitcoin, Ethereum, Vechain, Enjin, and other altcoins for 5-10 years. He intentionally avoids constantly checking their value, believing it’s unnecessary emotional torment. "If it's hodl, it's hodl; if it's trade, it's trade," he explains, advocating for distinct strategies.
* Patience and Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA): He’s currently sitting on the sidelines with stablecoins, waiting for a period of calm and stabilization before buying more. He believes that accumulating over time through DCA has been his "winning strategy" and sees "no reason to change it."
* The Benefit of Bear Markets: Counter-intuitively, he states that bear markets are "actually good" because they provide opportunities to buy at lower prices, allow things to "calm down," and encourage projects to "deliver actual value" rather than just hype.
* Learning from Blunders: He openly shares his biggest trading mistake: a 3x leveraged long on Ethereum at $14 (back in 2016-2017) that got obliterated during a flash crash. This painful liquidation taught him not to trade on leverage for a while and later, to use "sub accounts" to isolate trading capital from his main funds, ensuring that if one sub-account blows up, the rest remains safe.

* DeFi: The Road Ahead:
* Innovation Needed: He believes DeFi will return but only when there’s "actual innovation." He highlights Uniswap (decentralized exchanges) and Compound (lending platforms) as true disruptors that fundamentally changed how cryptocurrencies were traded and lent.
* Running Out of Steam: After these initial breakthroughs, he feels DeFi "ran out of ideas," becoming focused on "printing money" and algorithmic stablecoins (like Terra/UST), which didn't offer the same level of disruption.
* CeFi vs. DeFi Confusion: He strongly clarifies that centralized platforms like Celsius are NOT DeFi. He notes that the public often broadly generalizes "Web3" and "DeFi" to mean everything, leading to confusion.

* Broader Market Drivers & Bitcoin's True Value:
* Beyond Regulation: He doesn't believe regulation will be the primary driver of the next bull run. Instead, it will be driven by the "messing up of the world."
* Global Instability: With escalating geopolitical tensions (e.g., China vs. US, the war in Ukraine), he sees immense value in a form of currency like Bitcoin that is not controlled by any single nation, cannot be magically printed, and can be transferred anywhere.
* Bitcoin's "First Big Test": This recession cycle is Bitcoin's true test to see if it can hold value like gold. He believes it will. The realization that "everything is really other crap compared to Bitcoin" will eventually drive a new wave of adoption as people seek alternatives to traditional, unstable currencies.

* Ethereum 2.0 (The Merge) & Personal Staking:
* Excitement for the Merge: He's genuinely excited for the upcoming Ethereum 2.0 Merge, which will transition Ethereum to Proof-of-Stake. He humorously predicts that "the real Ethereum killer is Ethereum," meaning its own upgrades will solve its past congestion issues.
* Timeline: He expects the Merge to happen in "early 2023" (applying his rule of thumb: take programmer estimates and multiply by two or three). Staked ETH funds will be unlocked in a second phase, likely 1-1.5 years after the Merge.
* Personal Node: He has two ETH 2.0 validator nodes, one of which he staked 32 ETH into in December 2020. This node has since accumulated 3.45 ETH from staking rewards (initially earning 16% APY), providing a monthly income of around $132, covering the node's running costs. He considers this a "hodl bag" and has no intention of unstaking it.

* NFTs: A "Guilty Confession":
* Missed the Boat: He admits he "did not play NFTs" heavily. Initially, he couldn't grasp the appeal of "stupid JPEGs" and felt no emotional attachment or belief that they were "changing the world." He even called friends who bought CryptoPunks "idiots" but later "ate his words" as the market boomed.
* Indirect Involvement: Despite his personal disinterest, he did invest ETH into an NFT fund to gain exposure without actively trading them himself.
* Current State: He believes NFT "blue chips" are consolidating, similar to cryptocurrencies, and that "degenerate stupid shit" (like free-to-mint projects like Goblin Town, which still sells for 2 ETH) can surprisingly thrive in bear markets alongside the ultra-legit assets.

* Notable Crypto Incidents & Outlook:
* Magic Internet Money (MIM): This stablecoin recently de-pegged to $0.92, with its treasury facing insolvency. He advises anyone holding MIM to "de-risk right now," as holding a stablecoin that can lose value makes no sense.
* Terra/Luna/UST Collapse: He views this as a prime example of an "experiment" by crypto funds that failed, showing that even seemingly reputable projects can blow up. He personally incurred a small 2-3% loss from farming UST but wasn't catastrophic, having taken profits from other yield farming ventures.
* Centralized Finance Failures: He highlights Three Arrows Capital (3AC), Celsius, and Babel Finance as firms currently "down bad," causing significant market fear due to their unknown financial exposure. He reiterates that Celsius is a centralized black box that needs regulation. While its $240 million in losses are substantial, they are small compared to its $12 billion assets under management, so he doesn't expect a complete collapse like Mount Gox.
* Tether (USDT) FUD: He notes the constant "coordinated conspiracy" attempts to take Tether down. While remaining neutral, he has personally moved his funds from USDT to USDC due to the latter's better regulation.
* Positive Signs: Despite the doom, he points out that Immutable just launched a $500 million fund for Web3 game adoption, indicating that "money is still coming in" to the space. Also, seeing Silicon Valley investment firms like Sequoia and Bain Capital deploying multi-million dollar funds specifically into crypto shows a significant shift from previous cycles.

* YouTube Content & Experimentation: This was his first live stream in 10 months, a significant break he took due to burnout from constant trading and content creation. He’s now in a more "laid back" mode, not trying to "please anyone." He’s experimenting with YouTube content, including a "Boxmining Shorts" channel where he tests shorter, more "clickbaity" videos (like a Jake Paul-related one that drastically outperformed his more researched crypto content). He jokingly refers to viewers of this channel as his "guinea pigs" for these experiments, aiming to understand what resonates with a broader audience. He plans to do weekly live streams if the audience enjoys them.

Transcript

for YouTube and it says trans updating transmission so we should be live let me adjust my mic a little bit here so this is my first time going live in like i think it's been 10 months since my last live video that that is a long time 10 months um almost like three years in crypto honestly like three crypto years since my last live video so um i'm saying i'm seeing the data is being received in excellent condition and i'm uh seeing chat chat is live so welcome guys to another box money live stre...