Why Is Bitcoin Crashing? What Will Happen Next??? (MUST WATCH)

Welcome back everyone to Box Mining. It's been a long time since we've had a heart-to-heart chat about what's going on on the markets and now this is for a good time because right now there's extreme fear on the markets. If you look at the fear and greed index for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, we're sitting at 18 right now at extreme fear and this is mostly because of just how hard Bitcoin and Ethereum has crashed over the past few days. If you look at Ethereum prices, we crashed basically from 3,800 all the way down to 3,300 in a very very short space of time. If you look at this, this is over around four arrows, four candles rather and yikes that was not good to witness and obviously the market's a little bit battered up right now. Bitcoin is in similar state. We dropped from 46,000 all the way to 42,000, 43,000 right now sitting here and probably a lot of you guys are wondering what's causing this extreme fear. We're going to talk about the three biggest indicators and right now to be honest, there will be quite a lot of fear hitting the markets too because once I start talking about these big three main points, you'll see that a lot of them have quite far reaching consequences. However, what we're also going to talk about is talk about a little bit about the prospects and for me, what are the key driving factors that I believe is going to move crypto forward. But anyway, so this channel, we're really focused on bringing balance to what is really happening in this space. So if you guys enjoy content like this and you also even enjoy these, that's kind of like more heart to heart talk. I kind of find that it's quite rare to see one of these videos on even on YouTube now because YouTube's favoring this insanity. It's it's it's all about shocking thumbnail that we see right now and shocking content, but I want to be a lot more grounded in this video. So if you guys like content like this, please, please do click the like button. Please share with your friends and of course, subscribe to this channel. So right now there's massive fear on tech stocks. So if you look at the Nasdaq Composite Index, if you look at that, that's been crashing recently and mainstream media is doing its thing. It's saying, oh, a record number of Nasdaq stocks down more than 50%, almost at a record. Oh my god, it's mass hysteria. A lot of this is caused by the feds potentially signaling that they're going to raise interest rates this year. So it might signal the end of this massive bull rally because a lot of this is attributed to the just the record low interest rates that we've been having for a long time. So as investors moved out of just saving money in a bank and move their money into the tech market, it caused a boom. But if the techs rate, the feds rather raised interest rates, that's going to cause money to flow back. So that's number, that's kind of the current factor. So right now with the tech stocks going down, Bitcoin is also suffering the same amount of fear that is on the current markets, the overall markets right now. We do know that long term Bitcoin and stock markets aren't correlated too much, but we do know that short term because overall market fear drastically affects every single markets. And a lot of people are just confused, like they think crypto is a tech. So, you know, that leads to our current fear situation. The next reason of fear is Chinese New Year and US tax season. So this is something, a phenomenon that's been happening in crypto for some time now. So Chinese New Year, if you guys remember, really was a time that killed the 2017 bull market. So that is kind of still in people's memories. I made an article on that, you know, we kind of looked at the times of Chinese New Year and we kind of seen that towards Chinese New Year and these months kind of the January and the February month leading up to it, we've seen insane dips in cryptocurrency. So for example, in 2019, we actually saw that there's almost a 50% drop between the highs and lows of that particular month. So Jan and Feb are just generally speaking very weak months for crypto. If you look at the kind of mechanics of the reasons why, why Chinese New Year is so bad is because Chinese people typically need to hand out money during that period of time. So they kind of move money out of crypto into cash to kind of just give that money to the families. And also because of how long this holiday is, there's much less trading activity, which can cause significant bleed outs. And then because people kind of see Chinese New Year, they kind of want to front run it, which makes kind of January a pretty bad month for crypto. The same thing goes with it kind of the timing also times with the US tax season two. So just money moving out. So typically speaking, if you guys want to learn more about this and this phenomenon, we do have a strong research article on the box money website, I'll link the link down below. But this is quite a crypto specific reason. And it generally does cause traders to be fearful during these two months. Lastly, we have the, and lastly, of course, we have coronavirus yet again. I mean, when will it end? I don't know. Micron is becoming quite a huge factor on world agendas. Anyways, that's going to be a kind of a unknown factor, the wild card, we don't really know how kind of many, how contagious it can be and if it will affect countries. It's very hard for me to say this, but it tends to be the case that as people get locked down, people tend to buy more cryptocurrencies and they play more crypto games. So it's both viewed as a positive and negative depending on how events unfold, but we're going to keep a keen eye on that. Overall, right now it's causing fear in the markets because, oh my God, a new Greek alphabet. But of course, long term, we do know that, you know, if it wasn't for COVID, I don't think crypto would be, you know, as crazy as it is right now. All right, so we got the negatives out of the way, you know, now we can see that the effects on the markets are very clear. We do know that when crypto responds to these events, it responds like that. Typically speaking, this is because of like chain reaction with a lot of leveraged trades, people who are expecting trades to go up, they get liquidated causing market crashes that happen over a few hours rather than a few days. So that's kind of the situation we're having now. We've seen the market react to all that negativity. And then now we're kind of wondering what's going to go on next. I want to look at Ethereum a little bit more. So this is a chart for Ethereum. We have two major crashes down in the past. So in the past seven days, we had two major crashes, one from 4,100 down to 3,700 and the other one down from 3,800 down all the way to 3,300, which we see right now. If we zoom out a little bit, I'll basically mark the support and the resistances for Ethereum right here. So we do see that we do have some mildly weak support at 3,300 at this current point. However, that's, you know, if this support doesn't hold, we could drop all the way down to 2,800. So I'm kind of leaving myself, you know, open to that possibility. I'm not trying to cause fear here, but that's something that could be possible. I'm just leaving that out there. So it could be the case that if, you know, this weakness continues until maybe Chinese year is passed, then we could see Ethereum dip all the way down to 2,800 and pick itself back up slowly after that, after all that market fear is gone. So that's kind of my short term expectations. It doesn't look too good, but I'm also very calm at this date. I've kind of looked at the worst case scenarios and I'm okay with hodling. So what is my genuine take on the market? So to explain why I'm bullish, let's rewind a little bit and look all the way back at the video I posted in November talking about my strategies for the crypto bull market and some of my expectations. So first and foremost, we definitely expected a strong performance in December and November months. Honestly, that performance is nowhere near as strong as I expected. So if you look at here, you know, I was hoping for numbers like a hundred K for the price of Bitcoin that did not materialize. You see the way general public and crowd mentality works is that we have this insane love for cryptocurrencies that can happen. And generally speaking, prices of cryptos can shoot up into all the way and blast off into the moon, which is why these numbers like a hundred K for the price of Bitcoin, 200 K for the price of Bitcoin that comes into view. However, that being said, December month's performance wasn't too strong. So that means the public has not overdosed itself on cryptos yet. A lot of that action is actually focused on institutional investors. So this time, you know, the change here is that the general public is still quite skeptical about cryptocurrencies. We see that the search trend for Bitcoin hasn't really moved up that much. In fact, it's down from May 2021. So with the public not being so overdosed on cryptocurrencies just yet, I don't feel like we actually experienced the full bull market. So this is actually really good news for this coming year. So whilst it looks like January and February could be quite bad, the remainder of the year looks very positive. And to put things into perspective on why everyone in this industry is bullish is because if you look at the market cap of cryptocurrencies right now, so it's around $2.1 trillion. And this has been very generous because there's a lot of coins down there that's, you know, probably not very good. And they probably shouldn't have that much of a circulating cap because of the way it's being manipulated. This market cap is tiny because if you compare that to Apple, Apple sitting at $2.8 trillion. So the entire crypto market is smaller than the market cap of Apple. Really guys, the future of finance, the future of the internet, the future of NFTs combined together can't beat Apple. I mean, that is how early we are right now. If you're looking at us, we have such crazy innovations and we just want to throw the cherry on top of this as well. We have crypto fees that info this one, you can find out how much money crypto, either defy systems or chains are taking in, in terms of just fees on a daily basis, $52 million for Ethereum. That's gas burnt. Uniswap is taking in and raking in $6 million per day. I mean, if you don't find hard cash, sexy, I don't know what you are looking for because this is sexy AF. And if you've been reading reports about DeFi as well, these DeFi protocols are making bank. The profit to market cap ratio is at these all time lows right now. And if this was a Silicon Valley company, if a lot of these were Silicon Valley companies, a lot of these VCs will be like just wooing this, this will be the sexiest data we've ever seen. So I definitely view that right now in terms of the possibilities of where we can go and in terms of the long-term use case, definitely really good. On top of that, you know, I mentioned COVID a little bit earlier, something I've been noticing that's causing kind of disruptions, kind of COVID related disruptions is the flow of cash as well. Because COVID has caused a lot of flow of people to be stopped. Flow of money is also being stopped as well. If you hear what banks are talking about transferring cash from Hong Kong to say even Russia or even China or money out of China right now is extremely difficult. And this is just trivial in crypto terms, right? Especially if you're on a fast moving blockchain like Solana, it costs less than a cent to move millions, if not billions of dollars out. So yet again, I see that the prospect of this to be quite insane and crazy and the long-term kind of disruptions. I hate to use that word because it's been so overused, but the long-term disruptions to the entire finance sector to be just massive. Right now also with the kind of DeFi being a little bit bearish for the past few years, I definitely see those new innovations coming in. People have been building very strong and I've been a lot focused. Like if you look at my primary focus, I've been looking a lot at this kind of the whole DeFi space overall and looking for top projects in there, because I feel like that's where if any of an explosion is going to happen this year, that's going to happen. On top of this as well, NFTs, they're getting very mainstream, especially if you look at Hong Kong. It's kind of funny, like I facepalm a little bit because of just how crazy and ridiculous this is, but we've got DJ and Apes happening and being plastered all over like central and the main areas. You can just see it's to a point. It's kind of funny. So NFTs all over walls. And on top of that, even property developers in Hong Kong, they're jumping into virtual land. Yeah, it's crazy over here. Good and bad. Obviously, you know, the age old saying is that if your taxi driver is giving you stock pick tips, which is kind of like the NFT tips right now, and that's a time to be very fearful. However, that being said, this NFT space is behaving extremely differently. I definitely see that long-term the penetration to the general public can be much greater because of just how this is. It's art. It's video games. It's metaverse. It's people that can interact with. It's not just about stocks. So I think the way I've been trying to think about it is that yes, right now, maybe a little bit too hot, but that's the way it's supposed to be. Right. So anyways, I feel like NFTs probably can cool down for the next few months, but then the long-term implications here, I think are the fundamentals are extremely strong. And if you actually really look at this chart, we're kind of really stuck in the middle right now. We haven't reached the top and you haven't even touched the maximum bubble territory yet. I don't see us going straight into a bear market and, you know, with Bitcoin dropping 20,000. I don't honestly, I don't really see that. The implications are too large. The market cap is way too small right now and the use cases are way too strong. So I don't see us ending yet, but I do see, of course, you know, realistically speaking, it could be one, two, three, maybe even four or five months of just maybe sideways movement, not too strong. Bitcoin going silent again. And then of course we have the time to find who the real builders are in the space. On a poor personal level, I kind of enjoy these little breaks. So knowing that we have a two to three month break before things could go insane again, I kind of really enjoy that. I've been hitting the gym again recently. So I kind of gained a lot of weight over the new year and going back to the gym was not easy. That being said, of course, Hong Kong decided to close all the gyms today. So I have no idea what I'm going to do next, but you know, just exercising a little bit, not being a potato has been on the agenda. One of my resolutions for this year. Also, I've been pushing myself to read a lot more, especially into DeFi and all the protocols that are being developed at this current point. There needs to be some sort of leader. I'm going to spot that. And that's been what did me super well in 2020. So I want to kind of continue that success. And because of this kind of perceived bear market right now, it gives me a lot more time to read and focus on the people who are building rather than just the noise in the space. So yet again, it's in terms of what I'm actually doing, I'm actually clicking the little cross buttons every time stupid news happens on mainstream media and then hitting much better research materials, like maybe Masari or just the tweets that Andre is putting out. I think he's been doing some pretty good work right now, or even something like mechanism capital. So, yep. That's kind of what I'm more focused on. I hope you guys are having a great time. If you guys want to join in a chatter as well, we have two telegram groups to talk. There's a public one. So if you guys want to join that one and just talk about whatever you want to talk about, that's great. We also have a private group where so people who are more mature, who've been around a lot more longer, a lot less spammy. That's also available as well. We're trying to promote people who are contributors to our community into the private channel. It's not a paid channel. I just want to stress that. I don't, I hate that idea, but it's a channel for people who are really dedicated and caring about crypto. That's also on the table. So I hope that's going to do well. Jemmy and the rest of my team, they've also been working on some evergreen content. We find that this kind of works a lot better during times like this. So it's less, less hype. So I hope you guys can subscribe to this channel. We'll have some good content, good tutorials coming up, and it's going to provide a solid foundation as well. So lots going to happen on this channel. I hope you guys are having a good new year. I know it's maybe not the best new year, but I hope you guys are having a good time to kind of just sit down, relax, enjoy, and hopefully see each other again in better times coming up soon. So with that guys, thank you guys so much for watching this channel. I'll see you in the next video. Peace.