One last capitulation? (Crypto with Friends)

Boxmining avatar Boxmining
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Description

The weekend is coming up, are we expecting the cryptocurrency markets to completely dump like in previous weeks? This weekend going to be the one last capitulation before we go up? Join Nate (Crypton...

AI Analysis

This video dives into the crypto market's current state, addressing the big question on everyone's mind: is another major capitulation coming, or is it time to accumulate? Joining in on the discussion are Nate from Cryptonauts and Gemmy from CryptoGemmy, as they share their insights on market sentiment, recent news, and potential alpha leaks in the DeFi space, all while navigating the current bearish trend.

Here's a breakdown of the key points discussed:

* Current Market Sentiment: Bearish or Buying Opportunity?
* Bitcoin is hovering around its $31,000 support level, and the charts don't look great as it approaches the weekend, a time historically prone to "bleed outs."
* There's a significant divergence in opinion among crypto participants: some are aggressively shorting, anticipating a massive dump, aiming to "min-max" every opportunity and buy back cheaper. Others are slowly accumulating (Dollar Cost Averaging or DCA), seeing the dips as buying opportunities.
* The main presenter (Boxmining) openly subscribes to the second thought, actively buying more, but slowly and consistently.
* Nate and Jemmy both staunchly agree with the HODL strategy, finding it less emotional and more reliable than trading. They admit trading is not their strong suit, often leading to emotional decisions.
* Insight: HODLing has historically proven to be a winning strategy in crypto over the long term, as Bitcoin and other assets gain more recognition and value over months and years, despite significant peaks and valleys.
* Opinion on Trading: While some trading strategies (like leveraging Doge during bull runs) can work, trading, especially in a bear market, is extremely difficult and dangerous. Leverage can lead to liquidations, especially when everyone expects a dip. The presenters strongly caution against aggressive leverage, particularly for those with a "gambling mentality," despite acknowledging that trading can be "super fun." They highlight the problem with "trading gurus" who profit from referral links while their followers often get "wrecked."
* Funding Rates and Market Indicators:
* Technical Explanation: Funding rates indicate market sentiment on leverage platforms. Positive rates mean speculators are bullish (paying to be long), and negative rates mean they are bearish (paying to be short). The magnitude of the rate shows conviction.
* Current funding rates for BTC on major exchanges like Binance, FTX, and OKX are slightly negative but very close to zero, indicating a passive bearish sentiment. If rates were extremely negative, it could suggest an overcompensation, potentially signaling a bounce.
* The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, a logarithmic chart showing previous cycles, places Bitcoin currently in the "still cheap" zone after recent dips, suggesting potential for an upward movement.
* The overall feeling is that the hype Bitcoin received wasn't enough to sustain higher prices, leaving room for more growth.
* Altcoin Pain: Holding altcoins has been "a beating." The presenter is consolidating their portfolio, getting rid of weaker projects and focusing on those with strong leadership and fundamentals.
* Key News and Developments:
* 2012 Whale Transaction: A whale who acquired 740 BTC in 2012 for $3,700 moved it after nine years, now worth $26 million.
* Significance: This story powerfully illustrates the long-term benefits of HODLing and patience in crypto. It contrasts with the modern desire for quick gains seen in meme stocks and coins.
* Personal Connection: The presenter shared their own "trauma" of selling Bitcoin at $15 in 2012, regretting the missed opportunity but learning the importance of holding and the power of community-driven governance (like Yearn Finance, which maintained scarcity).
* Rising Inflation (CPI 5.4%): Consumer prices increased by 5.4% in June, the highest since 2008, driven by massive money printing for stimulus packages.
* Significance: Inflation is a global issue, making traditional fiat currencies less attractive. Bitcoin and crypto are seen as a hedge against inflation. This fundamental narrative remains bullish for crypto, even during downturns.
* Actionable Insight: Understanding market psychology is crucial during downward trends, as mass panic can lead to premature selling. DCA in during these times aligns with the long-term inflation hedge narrative. The situation is compared to the COVID-19 dump in early 2020, which was followed by a massive recovery.
* COVID-19 PPP Loan Fraud: A California man was arrested for using government COVID-19 relief loans to buy cryptocurrency and a $100,000 Tesla, facing up to 30 years in prison.
* Takeaway: Don't commit fraud, and if you do, maybe don't make flashy purchases like a high-end Tesla. Jokes were made about this being a forced 30-year HODL strategy for his crypto.
* NFTs for Real Estate (Timeshares): Refinable and Labs launched their first commoditized NFT for timeshares of a resort near Bali. These NFTs represent a share of the property for a specific day and are tradable.
* Significance: This is a surprising development that shows how quickly blockchain technology is enabling new forms of ownership and investment, potentially making property transactions much easier than traditional methods. The presenter personally bid on one.
* Uniswap V3 Launch on Optimistic Ethereum (Layer 2): Uniswap has launched its V3 on Optimistic Ethereum mainnet, a Layer 2 scaling solution.
* Technical Explanation: Layer 2 solutions aim to reduce high Ethereum gas fees and improve transaction speed. While there's tribalism among different L2 solutions (Optimism, ZK Roll-Ups, Plasma, Polygon), progress is being made.
* Actionable Takeaway: Experimenting with new tech like this often leads to airdrops (like the previous Uniswap airdrop), so it's a good time to try out these platforms. Nate emphasizes the importance of community in driving tech and adoption.
* ShapeShift Decentralization & Airdrop: ShapeShift is decentralizing into a DAO and will airdrop FOX tokens to users who connected with KeepKey before June 9th.
* Actionable Takeaway: Check if you were eligible, as it's "free money."
* Regulatory Warnings (Italy vs. Binance): Italy joined other regulators in warning against Binance. This can be interpreted either as consumer protection or as a move by regulators to get a slice of Binance's profits.
* Jack Dorsey on Bitcoin DeFi: The Twitter founder and Bitcoin maximalist believes Bitcoin will soon have its own DeFi ecosystem, further validating Bitcoin's utility.
* Oneinch Foundation Grants: Oneinch is offering $3 million in grants for DeFi developers, signaling opportunities for innovation in the space.
* Ex-Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's Stance: He now believes it's "fine to buy Bitcoin," indicating a shift in perception from traditional finance figures.
* Alpha Leak: DinoSwap Farm:
* A new cross-chain farm called DinoSwap is launching in one day, supporting multiple pairs across different chains (e.g., QuickSwap on Matic for stablecoins, Sushi on Ethereum for others).
* Actionable Takeaway: This is an early alpha leak. The presenter plans to target stablecoin pools (USDC/USDT or USDC/Mimatic) due to lower risk, though they expect whales to quickly reduce APYs.
* Farming Strategy: Early entry usually yields higher multipliers. The presenter advises a "fair launch" approach, meaning everyone gets in at the same time. The strategy involves not revealing your intentions until the last minute, then "shoving" liquidity in.
* Current Farming Climate: Rates across DeFi have dropped significantly (from 50% down to 10-25%), with FTX lending rates also plummeting to 1%. This makes finding profitable farms challenging, and "food is scarce." The presenters and guests plan to experiment with DinoSwap and share findings next week.

Overall, the discussion emphasizes patience and long-term vision in crypto during volatile times, highlighting the fundamental drivers like inflation and technological advancements, while also sharing actionable insights for those looking to engage with new DeFi opportunities.

Transcript

Intro Alright everyone, welcome, welcome back to BoxMining here. Today is another live stream for you guys and we're going to explore this topic that almost everyone seems to talk about, which is will there be one more gigantic, catastrophic, devastating capitulation before we see some green? Will Bitcoin drop below $30,000 again? Maybe crash at $325,000? Will Ethereum follow with a similar story? Right now the charts aren't looking too good to be honest, we're approaching the weekend, but as t...