What are you BUYING? (Chart Requests LET'S GO)
Description
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AI Analysis
Alright, let's break down what's happening in the crypto market based on this chat. The general vibe is super optimistic, with Bitcoin (BTC) hitting $92k and Ethereum (ETH) nearing $1800 – levels not seen since April. The big question is whether the market bottom is truly in, and the feeling here is a confident "yes," partly fueled by rising global M2 money supply, which often pumps crypto prices after a bit of a lag.
Here's a rundown of the key stuff discussed:
Market Sentiment & Big Picture:
- Bottom is In? - Strong feeling that the recent price action confirms the market bottom. The presenter seems quite confident about this.
- BTC Strength: BTC closing above $90k is seen as a really good sign of strength, pushing back into the range held since last December.
- ETH Potential: ETH is hitting important levels ($1800, near the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level) and is viewed as having lots of room to grow. The ETH/BTC chart also suggests a macro bottom structure.
- M2 Money Supply: This global liquidity measure is rising, and historically, Bitcoin follows with a pump after about 50-60 days. We might be seeing that effect now. Forecasts suggest M2 peaks in Q2 2025, drops slightly, then rises again, so the plan is to capitalize on the current upward trend.
- Trader Sentiment: Even previously bearish traders (like Crypto Beam, mentioned as a respected high-timeframe trader) are potentially seeing their bearish thesis invalidated by the market's strength. The job is to react to the market.
- Altcoin Action: Many altcoins are breaking out of accumulation/distribution phases or retesting key Support/Resistance (SR) levels on high time frames (HTF), signaling potential big moves.
Trading Strategy & Approach:
- High Time Frame (HTF) is Key: For planning trades, looking at the bigger picture (weekly, monthly charts) and market structure is what matters most.
- Price Action Focus: While things like volume and RSI can be used, the core analysis here relies heavily on price action – how the price itself is moving.
- Execution vs. Planning: Planning the trade based on HTF structure is one thing; executing it (timing the entry, managing the trade) is different and can be tricky. The presenter admits to sometimes having sloppy execution despite good planning.
- Risk Management: Always plan your stops! Knowing where your trade idea is invalidated is crucial. Don't get trapped in a bad position.
- Swing Trading: Looking for setups with a high Risk/Reward (RR) ratio, ideally 5R or more (meaning potential profit is 5 times the potential loss). Consider the time frame (weeks) and avoid getting bled by funding fees on perpetual futures (perps).
- Market Cap Matters: Lower market cap coins (like PENGU) have more potential for explosive growth (like 10x) compared to larger caps (like HYPE) which move slower.
- Day Trading: Mention of ORB (Opening Range Breakout) scalps and focusing on London/New York sessions due to their correlation (analyzed using Cursor AI).
- Specific Patterns: Looking for deviations (price briefly dipping below support then reclaiming it), 3-bar patterns (igniting candle, pullback, trigger candle), and SR flips (resistance turning into support).
Specific Coin Analysis:
- BTC: Needs to flip $104k for serious talk of a new all-time high.
- ETH: Reclaiming $1822 (0.786 Fib level) is a key signal for the bottom. High time frame chart looks like a potential large 'W' pattern (win!). Worst case could see a deviation below $1400, but current strength makes the bottom thesis more likely.
- WAL (Walrus): Looking good, chart-wise. Currently being staked, not sold. Local support identified. Seen as having strong tech (like Celestia).
- PENGU: Weekly chart shows a potential deviation. Looking for a weekly close above a key level, then a retest for a buy. Potential for a high RR (around 8.5R) swing trade. Market cap ($439M) is in a sweet spot for growth.
- HYPE (Hyperliquid): Retesting a major SR region. Need to wait for acceptance above this level for a long, or watch for rejection for a short. RR to previous all-time high is decent (5R), but being a large cap ($6.3B), it might take a while. A more realistic target gives lower RR (1.85R).
- TOSHI: Weekly chart shows a potential (though not perfect) 3-bar pattern setup. Looks like a good time to buy, placing the stop loss below the second candle's low. Target gives around 5R. Also retesting an SR region on the 3-day chart. Low market cap ($159M) meme coin, good potential.
- SOL: Reclaimed a key 3-day level ($135). If it holds above, it suggests the bottom is in and the previous dip was just a big deviation. Next realistic target is $175. Meme hype could boost SOL. Ideal entry might be a retest of $135.
- FART: Used as an example of an altcoin that moved early (pumped significantly in March). Its pattern of pump, consolidation (catching its breath), and then a second run might be repeated by other alts now breaking out.
- ATOM (Cosmos): Monthly chart shows it's down to a macro bottom support zone. Needs to hold and bounce. A wick on the weekly shows good reaction. Its performance is important for the whole Cosmos ecosystem (TIA, INJ, OSMO, etc.).
- RON (Ronin): Looks like it has retested a key macro level and found a bottom on the weekly chart, showing a large deviation. Looks like a potential buy area.
Airdrops & Ecosystems:
- Airdrop Farming: Strategy is now more focused on doing the bare minimum with larger size, rather than extensive grinding. Airdroplet.com is mentioned as a resource.
- Hyperlane Airdrop: Allocation received, but wasn't huge due to limited bridging.
- WAL Airdrop/Staking: Holding and staking the airdrop.
- Cosmos Ecosystem: Acknowledged that while the tech is good, user adoption lags behind giants like Solana and ETH L2s, impacting market share. However, belief that everything will pump in a real altseason. Crypto Cito is recommended for Cosmos updates.
- Seal Testnet (Sui): Mentioned as a potential hidden gem on Sui. Possibly incentivized, similar to Walrus, where on-chain Sui activity might be a factor. Worth interacting with.
AI & Tools:
- Learning AI Automation: Using tools like N8N.
- LLMs for Coding: Using Grok and Perplexity AI to help understand and write code (like SQL queries) – a huge advantage compared to the past.
- Cursor AI: Used for analyzing trading session data (e.g., London/NY correlation).
Transcript
all right we're live boys welcome back to alpha drop and things are looking really really good btc 92k eth nearly 1800 okay and alts right now are looking really really good so is the bottom in are we gonna go higher let's find out okay so if you guys are watching now we got one viewer right now let's hope we have more and more viewers coming in because here's the context all right so for those of you who know one of the most well for me okay high time frame trading wise crypto beam is my goat ...