The Decentralized Finance market took a downward turn over the past few days, with many coins dumping in the double digits. It's a time to reflect and learn from some mistakes, and also prepare for th...
The Decentralized Finance market took a downward turn over the past few days, with many coins dumping in the double digits. It's a time to reflect and learn from some mistakes, and also prepare for the future. What are some Bullish and Bearish scenarios for crypto?
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AI Analysis
The crypto market, particularly in decentralized finance (DeFi), has taken a significant dip, with many altcoins experiencing double-digit losses. This period is a crucial time to reflect on past mistakes, learn from them, and strategize for the future, moving away from the common "online guru" mentality that often focuses only on positive outcomes. It's important to be honest about setbacks, especially in a notoriously punishing market like crypto, and understand that even experienced players make mistakes.
Here's a breakdown of the key points and insights:
* Diverging Market Performance: While Bitcoin is up and Ethereum is holding steady, if you're heavily exposed to DeFi projects like Sushi, NXM, REN, or ICON, you're likely seeing significant double-digit dips. This highlights the varying risk profiles within the crypto market. * Embracing Mistakes and Transparency: It's tough to talk about losses, but it's essential for a healthier crypto community. The presenter openly shares personal mistakes, emphasizing that even top crypto whales make errors. This approach counters the "guru" persona, promoting truthfulness and learning over an illusion of infallibility. * Personal Losses and Risk Management: A major personal loss was experienced with MTA due to a leveraged order, hoping for a Binance listing that didn't materialize, especially with the SushiSwap drama distracting the market. This was a stark reminder of the market's savagery and the importance of managing risk; thankfully, accounts weren't liquidated, but it could have been much worse without careful planning. * Accountability and Avoiding Blame: It's crucial to take responsibility for your own investment decisions rather than blaming key figures like CZ or Sam Bankman-Fried for bad trades. Making your own choices and living with the consequences is the only way to thrive in this space. * Successful Strategies – Resisting FOMO: A positive experience involved resisting the urge to FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) into a legitimate project that had already rocketed 20-30x. Instead, a disciplined decision was made to wait for a pullback, which proved successful as the coin dropped by half its value, making it an attractive buy opportunity. This emphasizes the value of patience and sticking to your investment criteria. * The SushiSwap Saga and Farming vs. Buying: As a SushiSwap farmer, the presenter was up regardless of price fluctuations because the tokens were "farmed" (earned by staking other assets) rather than bought at market price. This highlights a key strategy: farming for free (or earned) coins can be less speculative than outright buying, particularly with highly volatile assets. * Understanding SushiSwap's Volatility: SushiSwap is incredibly volatile, with strong arguments for both being undervalued (as a full-fledged exchange with significant value locked) and overvalued (as a quickly launched project with many immediate competitors like Sashimi, Sake, MoonSwap, BurgerSwap, etc.). This makes it challenging to price and contributes to its wild price swings. * Dangers of Yield Farming "Pool 2" and Impermanent Loss: Yield farming has become riskier, especially in "Pool 2" setups where you provide liquidity for the native token and another asset (like ETH). The immense initial supply of native tokens often leads to massive dumps and significant impermanent loss, where the value of your staked assets decreases relative to simply holding them. * Controlling Greed and Ignoring Sky-High APRs: The market severely punishes excessive greed. Ignoring those enticing "40,000% APR" or "200,000% APY" figures is vital. Even when trying to reinvest profits into these risky pools, losses can quickly wipe out gains, reinforcing the lesson that "Pool 2" is dangerous unless you're an expert. * Mental Fortitude in a Volatile Market: Crypto is a roller coaster, and you need to be mentally prepared for extreme volatility. Despite the downturn, the presenter remains in projects like Cream ETH, believing in their long-term potential, showcasing the importance of conviction when holding. * Overall Gains and the Power of 10x Projects: Despite highly visible mistakes (like YAM or MTA), the presenter is overall up due to early entry into and significant gains from projects like YFI and others that delivered multiple 10x returns. This demonstrates that just a few successful projects can entirely offset numerous smaller losses, illustrating the immense upside potential in crypto. * Bearish Market Indicators: The biggest bearish sign is the drastic increase in scams, rug pulls, and scam ICOs, especially on Uniswap, coupled with a lack of rigorous project analysis from many participants just looking for quick money. High gas fees on Ethereum also hinder accessibility and usability. This environment of unchecked greed and speculation is unsustainable in the long run. * Strong Bullish Outlook – Replacing Traditional Finance: Despite the short-term bearish indicators, there's deep-seated bullishness due to DeFi's potential to completely replace traditional finance. Observing financial hubs like Hong Kong, it's clear that crypto technologies like lending platforms (Compound, Cream, Aave), flash loans, and decentralized exchanges (Uniswap) can streamline and revolutionize processes worth trillions of dollars. New trading tools, cross-chain technology (e.g., with Linear and Synthetix), and the ability to trade synthetic assets with greater ease than ever before reinforce this long-term vision. * Continued Yield Farming Returns: Even with current yields being lower than the initial thousands of percent, 100% APY is still vastly superior to traditional banking returns, indicating that yield farming remains a fruitful endeavor, just requiring more selective participation. * Long-term HODL Strategy: Knowing your long-term "hodls" (holding onto crypto assets for extended periods) is crucial for navigating short-term market swings, as the underlying bullish conviction about DeFi's transformative power remains strong.
Transcript
So the markets are down today. Well, it actually depends on where you are. I mean, if you're just holding on to Bitcoin, it's actually up, congrats. And Ethereum, it's actually okay, steady. But if you're being like me and you're pretty exposed to decentralized finance, be it in Sushi, NXM, some FedEx, REN, ICON, yeah, we're experiencing quite a strong dip, like almost in a double digits for quite a few coins. And I just wanted to make this video to really address a lot of the fears that people...
So the markets are down today. Well, it actually depends on where you are. I mean, if you're just holding on to Bitcoin, it's actually up, congrats. And Ethereum, it's actually okay, steady. But if you're being like me and you're pretty exposed to decentralized finance, be it in Sushi, NXM, some FedEx, REN, ICON, yeah, we're experiencing quite a strong dip, like almost in a double digits for quite a few coins. And I just wanted to make this video to really address a lot of the fears that people are coming into this DeFi space and thinking about, and also share some of the mistakes I made as well. I think this is actually a harder video for a lot of people to talk about because a lot of times people who make content only try to focus on the positive, the great. I think there's almost this need to be this online guru, right? I think there's a lot of people who try to live that persona that's always a right online guru. But when it comes to crypto, crypto is insanely punishing. And as a matter of fact, all the top whales or people I know, they all make mistakes. And I think it's actually much healthier to share some mistakes that we made along the way, be truthful about that, and actually move away from that guru mentality. I mean, at the end of the day, I feel like there's a lot of gurus out there with all these trading tips saying you can always make a profit. And then as long as you buy the course for $19.99 or whatever thing like that. Yeah, I'm trying to move away from that. And I'm trying to just share some of the mistakes that I've made and also why I'm learning from that. And at the same time as well, I'll give you a little bit of insight of what I have on the market. There's been a lot of sentiment for the bearish push recently. And I've definitely like kind of experienced that myself. Been on a few calls that definitely did not go well. And I just felt the toxic greed in the space. So I'll relay some of my thoughts there and kind of my strategy going forward for, you know, the short term period. Obviously, everything here is my personal opinion, not financial advice, yada, yada. Y'all know that this channel has become a lot more of my first hand experience about what's going on, but it's definitely not financial advice. So anyways, um, that's it. And if you guys want to win a t-shirt, make sure you stay to the end. I'll tell you how to go in the t-shirt as well. Let's get started. Sorry, starting off confession time. Look, so this morning, obviously I got hit pretty hard. Um, you know, went on to some accounts, found some big red arrows on my face, um, because I was very exposed to decentralized finance. Um, and it's definitely not a surprise. Obviously I've been very, very heavy into decentralized finance and, uh, sometimes it's time to eat some losses. So namely, um, biggest loss is probably with MTA. I had a big leverage order. If you guys want to know what the exact stuff is, it's all shared on my channel, like my telegram channel that is actually private for now, but it's all free to join. Um, just come on every live stream on Monday and you'll be ready to join. And there's a lot of good discussion on that. And I felt like that's the appropriate place to share some of my more intimate stuff. But anyways, yeah, huge loss on MTA. Um, looks pretty nasty. I think like you just look at it from a pure number perspective, it's like, Oh my God, I just crashed the car. And yeah, I can obviously say you can definitely feel a little bit of emotion about that. And, uh, I think that's actually good. It's a good once in a while to eat some humble pie. Uh, this market has been extremely good for me. There were points where I almost felt that like super thrilled, the delusion of grandeur, uh, you know, every day, right. And I think this is a start reminder that the market can be very savage when it needs to be. I took a gamble and I knew I took a gamble on MTA because I was kind of thinking, look, it's probably the next coin Binance will list, um, because they were on listing spree for a while. And I was kind of hoping that this will be next, but hasn't happened so far. And mostly because of this whole sushi debacle, it knocked, it probably not Binance from listing more coins and yeah, now everything's in this flood mode. So that's a big giant red arrow there. Um, you know, it's just learning how to eat a loss, um, and put big boy pants on. I kind of see on the market and I want to gripe about this, which is a lot of people are very angry when they have a loss. I feel like a lot of people, like I see people grabbing pitchforks and trying to blame either CZ or Sam, um, Sam Beckman freed or, uh, whatnot, like blame key figures in the space for bad trades. And I feel like that's like the worst thing ever. Like if, if you're in this space and you're making decisions because of other people, yeah, you gotta reconsider why you're here. I've been a big proponent of making your own decision. I'm being big proponent of making your own, you know, that's the case, right? Your money, you gotta be, uh, got your big boy pants on. You gotta make your own decision and live up to your own mistakes. That's the only way I think this field can work. Yeah. Okay. This for me, this is another learning lesson about managing risks. Luckily, obviously this time the risks were well managed, no account liquidations took place, but you know, if I wasn't wiser in this case, I could have lost huge, huge amounts and that would have been pretty nasty. All right. So now to balance the negative story out, we have a positive situation where I followed my own rules and it worked out pretty well. So there were, it's no secret. I was on quite a few calls last week and lots of CEOs are showing me their projects and saying how good they are. And you know, um, I was actively looking for good projects. So one of these projects in particular, very, very legitimate project and the market actually discovered them for being legitimate and rewarded them as such. So in the past two weeks, um, just right prior to the call, the coin just went straight up hockey stick up 20x. Actually 20 to 30x and they were just living the dream. Right. And they really wanted me to have some coins for me to buy a market. And this is a situation where I'm like, look, I admire all you're doing. You know, I look, I love all this tech, but at the same time, like it's so hard for me to enter at that price because unfortunately you guys, well, fortunately or unfortunately you guys went up too high and I'm going to wait, put you guys down on the list and wait for a pullback. And this is a situation where it did work very well. So at this current point, that particular coin has roughly dropped by around half its value. So if I went in heavily at that time, I probably would have suffered quite a lot of casualties. But yet again, it's on my to-do list. It's on my list of things that I can potentially buy. And I am buying it now. I was still waiting a little bit, but I think it's a situation where I use my head. I almost FOMO'd into it, stopped myself last minute, and I'm happy to tell the tale. All right. Next up, the sushi story. This is a story where it's very hard for me to narrate and tell because a lot of people have very different experiences with it. So as a sushi farmer, it's very easy for me to say anything because I'm up regardless, right? Because I staked my coins to farm and I got sushi for free. Well, not for free, but you have to stake it. So you have an opportunity lost there, but literally the coin gets to you from you farming, right? So regardless of what the reward is of what price sushi is, I'm always up. Did I buy any sushi at market? Nope. It's one of the lessons where for me, I rather farm coins for free than to speculate at market price, right? And I've been very clear with you guys there. Now, sushi went up and down. I mean, it's one of the most volatile coins. And I think a lot of people were constantly asking me, is sushi over valued or is it undervalued? And it's one of those hardest questions to answer because it depends on which angle you look at it. And this is exactly what's happening on the market. So let's take the case for undervalued first. Right now, sushi is roughly $1.75. And you can argue the case that sushi is an automated market making exchange. It's a full on exchange and it's already got a lot of value locked, right? In that migration process, people still kept a lot of their coins inside and there's a lot of liquidity inside too. So this play, this token play might actually work out very well. And we've seen what happened with unit swap, right? So that's the pro case. But the anti case or the case for it to be overvalued, you can argue that at the same time, right, sushi, it took off in the space of barely two weeks. And there's a lot of projects chasing sushi's tail. So be it sashimi, be it sake, be it moon swap. And then now we have a bunch of exchanges like same ideas, burger swap or bakery swap and Binance Smart Chain. A lot of projects are just going straight after sushi's lunch, right? Literally. So yet again, it's one of those situations where it's highly volatile and both arguments can come into play and which is why we have that insane amount of volatility. This is something I really didn't understand that the amount of drama related to it, I think a lot of people were exposed unnecessarily to that much risk in sushi because people wanted to ride the wave out. And it's a case where for me personally, I played around with my farm. I didn't feel too bad about like whatever prices went up or down. And yeah, I think maybe this doesn't comfort a lot of people, but that's my two cents and my take on sushi right now. I frankly don't care regardless of what price sushi is at. I'm still up. Now, speaking of sushi and yield farming, obviously these few weeks, yield farming has been a lot harder. The rewards are still there. So if you go into projects very early on, it's still a lot of early farming rewards. But at the same time, a lot of times, there is this introduction of impermanent loss, this idea of going into what we call pool two now. And pool two's include the token that's the generating that's being actively distributed. And because of how distribution works, if it's at the very start of the project over the next few hours, there's going to be an insane supply of that native token. And that leads to massive dumps. And we've seen that repeating pattern, whether it's for a moon, sashimi, sake, or bakery gems, regardless of what, there has been huge drops in value. So a lot of people who are in say, a ETH and X coin, be it sushi or sashimi or whatever, they lost money. And yep, that's a reason why don't go into pool two's. And this is actually getting and becoming more and more important now, is to ignore, for me at least, not financial force, to ignore these giant APRs that you see, 40,000%, 200,000% APY. It's all about controlling that greed. And I think it's a situation where crypto is insanely punishing for anyone who's excessively greedy. It will decimate you. And every time I tried, so sometimes I tried with profits, like say, if I farm something, I take my profits, put it into the ETH pool. Yeah, lost like more than half its value over the next 24 hours, even though I had gains. So it's a case where again and again, I think the markets pretty much taught me pool two types just super dangerous right now, unless you know what you're doing. And there's a lot of stories like that too. I think there are stories when I really went up, I think I was in the cream ETH pool very early on and I rode the wave all the way up. And now I'm riding the wave all the way down as well. So lots of drama there. It's a roller coaster ride. And I think in this space, you gotta be mentally prepared for it. I got my big boy pants on. Am I still in the creamy pool? Yes, I am. I still believe in a project. I still feel like they're doing a lot. And there's just no reason for me to leave at this current point. And lastly, for me, it's so easy to get negative. I think that's part of my personality too. I always like to push myself. And that's why I use a lot of, I'm very critical of what I do and I try to drive myself fast. And it's a situation where I have to balance everything and always look on the positive side too. It's been a crazy few months to say the very least. I'm very, very grateful for everything that's happened. Overall, obviously I'm up. All right. I make no secret that I was in Y fee very, very early. It got into a few good projects. You know, uptrend I was in and I'm very grateful that it's one of the projects that did a 10 X as well. And like there were multiple 10 X's I got this current season. So like, um, whilst I'm hard on myself, I always try to balance that up a little bit. I know that not everyone can do this. I think it's, it's hard. And I think in a lot of examples where like there are coins where I held on regardless, like I held on regardless of what, because I believe what you're doing. And the market was telling me, no, no, no, no, no. But I held on and it paid off. Right. So that was great. And that's how brutal this market is, right? It's, you know, it's hard to chase everything. And I think I've learned a lot from it. But if you think about it, if you have just like, um, in this case, I'm actually very thankful. I got four to five projects at 10 X, which completely counteracts all the dumb mistakes I made, whether it's be a YAM. I think you guys saw that, uh, or it's MTA. You guys saw that all the dumb mistakes is still outweighed by, uh, the good things I did. And I can't, I know it's, I know it's like, I don't, I don't want to shove this into people's faces. It's not for it's not the case where everyone makes wins. But at the same time, I think crypto, there's a lot of potential here, which is really why one of the reasons why I'm here. And it's always about balancing that. I mean, if you can make a 10 X, if you actually think about it, that means you can make like a zero X on nine projects and still be even. And that's a really crazy way to think about it. Right. So if you just make one good call for every nine other calls that are wrong, you can still break even or, and if you have like less wrong calls, you'll be pretty far ahead too. So I think this space is so full of promise, but at the same time, um, the number of scams in this group space is drastically increasing. So I think this is like, if you want to talk about overall market and sentiment, this is probably the biggest bearish case where the number of scams in this space is drastically increasing. And the amount of rigor that we have in analyzing projects right now is just none. Pretty much a lot of people are just looking for small caps, make some money fast, and that's not going to last for a long time. Whilst I want to say, you know, shake my fist and say, no, this is lessons from 2019. Uh, we shouldn't repeat these. No, I know deep down the market's going to do whatever it's going to do. Greed is always going to take over and it's like kind of like the wall street cheat sheet. That cycle is going to happen regardless because people are emotional and people are greedy. So I'm just going to just say it out there and you know, the market's going to play its way. Now that's a bearish case because now the number of scams is increasing and we've seen a steady increase in the number of rug pulls for Uniswap. We've seen a steady increase in number of scam ICO projects. That's going to destroy the space and obviously high gas fees right now. Um, right now still on Ethereum. It's extremely hard to send a transaction off. All of these are the bearish cases. Now, ending this video, I want to say some of the bullish cases too. And I think I'm actually really, really bullish deep down inside. And that's because, um, if you look at this video, I'll put this up here. This is a live stream today when I was in, uh, Tsum Shao Tsui in Hong Kong. This is where Victoria Harbor is. So I can look at the central district where all the big banks are. Now, Hong Kong is filled with banks and the finance sector takes a huge part of Hong Kong's economy. And it's not in the billions of dollars. It's in the trillions and it's just outright insane. The crazy thing and the insanity of it is that a lot of this can be replaced with what we're doing in crypto. Like that's insanity. Like once you start using all this good defy space, and I think I'm so grateful that I did teach myself about all this defy stuff, be it lending platforms like compound and cream, be it or Ava, I guess like insane stuff, like even flash loans. I'm taking a look at how that works and all this stuff. It's just absolutely insane. And I coupled with the fact that there are new trading tools. I mean, the rise of Uniswap already completely changed how centralized exchanges behave in this space. And with new rising tech about cross chain and all this stuff, I'm actually really, really crazy. I mean, on top of that, we also have some FedEx and Linear. Linear is launching tomorrow. And they're all about trading some FedEx assets. And this is stuff that's like billions of dollars per day. And we can essentially do that in crypto with more ease than anything else. So I'm actually super bullish. I think we can completely replace Hong Kong's role in this world. As much as I love Hong Kong, I can say, you know, crypto might actually replace that. And Hong Kong's got to find something or, you know, be at the edge of this. So I think that's the biggest challenge, replacing centralized finance. And I think we are actually finally starting to actually move forward in that respect. So this is why I'm still very bullish over time. But obviously, the market can swing either way very, very quickly. So yeah, I know that sounds pretty useless. What sort of information is that? And for me, it's useful because I know where my long-term hodels are. I'm still in yield farming a lot. I feel that is offering the returns, even though the yields are not so great now. I mean, yes, I can't believe I'm saying this. I mean, we're looking at still 100% APY. And relative to the bank, it's still a lot better. So I feel like it's still a very fruitful time. Maybe it's not as good as, you know, when everything started with the thousands of percent, but I think we're still in a very privileged position. And yeah, that's my take on the market right now. Whether you agree or not, I would love to hear you. Type a comment down below. And if you want to win a t-shirt, like be it the Antisocial Crypto Club or be it the Box Mining t-shirts, type notification squad and you have a chance to win this t-shirt. And two things as well, if you want to win, all the draws are on Monday and also entry to the Telegram chat is also on Monday as well. And with that, guys, thank you guys so much for watching this video. See you guys next time.