BTC Gearing Up for MONTHLY CLOSE!

and we're live yo boys welcome to off the drop my name is Ron in here and finally we're back to live stream we've missed you guys it's been I think four days since our last live stream we've been super super busy with the air droplet app in case you guys didn't tune in for the last week we have made an airdrop research dashboard for you to track all airdrops that you want to farm all right very big features we're rolling out so many good features and you know that we've been super super busy we have a new feature now YouTube summary yeah really really good so if you don't want to watch the entire video okay I know some of you guys are super super busy but you still want the alpha you can just click onto the video and read the executive summary mind you this is written by AI but we made we've tweaked the prompt very very sharply that it actually covers about 90% of everything we talked about with good accuracy yeah for the language just keep in mind there might be some misspelling yeah that's just the AI that's just the AI and plus it's not just us we've also added other crypto YouTube channels that are really good with airdrops as well crypto Lorenzo light crypto light liger is an og and air drops this guy is the CC to ventures in YouTube okay in you crypto currency state crypto cove is also here meepo if you like game five so you can check it up all right now back to the topic gearing up BTC and ETH is gearing up for the monthly close this month okay we got about one week till monthly close now last month we said that if February ends in red March is very likely to end in red as well however right now price action is holding quite all right okay we're looking at the four hour now for BTC and ever since the flush right the flush towards 76 K we are now on a series of higher highs and higher lows on the first sorry on the four hour time frame and in fact we've kind of raided this supply zone here okay so what we're expecting is if March we're ending we close in green even if it's just one or two percent maybe it might not be so bad after all and that might just potentially signal us that the flush to 76 K is actually the bottom okay just remember none of this financial advice we only trade we only react to what the market is telling us we don't hold a certain bias okay that is actually the mistake that I've made before is is holding a long-term bias we'll explain that in a bit okay but looking pretty good so far so good now what to look out for for BTC in particular is we're still inside this range between 76 to 90 K in terms of the macro but on the low time frame is quite critical especially as we're gearing up towards the monthly close so we marked out our range high and our range low from range high being 84 907 range low being 81 934 and the key here was that last week we were observing the price action very closely and a lot of traders on CT are also monitoring the current low time frame price action because we had that deviation here right and a put a deviation could potentially signal a reversal towards the downside to just grab more liquidity down here but as of now the weekend actually performed surprisingly well it was not a big pump but it was relatively bullish and we are now holding above the range high of 84 thousand nine hundred twenty nice looking pretty good so are do you think we are more likely to see lows to sixty thousand or or or pumps to you know 90 plus potentially a hundred thousand again that is actually a very good question right as we have stated before that if BTC were to flush any lower 50 K could be a potential scenario but no one knows if that's going to come that's just a potential scenario because based on the fib that we've drawn from the macro swing low towards the all-time high at 109 K the golden pocket retracement is at 50 K as long as it's not below 50 K BTC is still bull market but no one knows it'll ever go there but what we do know is what to expect in the next few weeks all right so actually let me see using this indicator right here my side and sell side if we're looking at the four hour okay okay it's not as prevalent as ease but you can see there's a liquidity void here on 104 K to 102 K on the high time frame so if there's going to be liquidity grab it can surge up towards here but from there on it if it doesn't hold inside 90 K then it can deviate back down again and potentially maybe hit 50 K but we're not gonna talk about that right no one wants to hear about that no one wants to hear about BTC going to 60 K fuck you but that is a potential scenario that's offensive to my bag that is offensive to my bag indeed very very sensitive right so BTC let's see okay so what comes this week is very important because if for some reason some hedge funds or some institutions decide to sell their bag then yes we can dip back inside here retracing all the big well not big but like the improvements that we've made last week right so if it does deviate below here if we see a potential deviation let's say in the next day or two days then it could trade again inside this range here potentially even going back to 81 K and so on so on for ETH however that liquidity void scenario that I showed you is actually very strong we're looking at the four hour here you see bunch of liquidity voids a huge one at two five two six and another big one at three five three six the thing about liquidity voids of this specific indicator made by Lux Algo he stated that liquidity voids almost always get filled so it's very likely a surge towards these levels can be happening down in the future but we do not know exactly when okay we see pro list here says mini all season April that could be the case actually which brings us to this point right so if you watched Jerome Powell last week at the FOMC meeting the the summary here okay and a lot of crypto traders are eyeing on this is that they the Fed said it will slow the ongoing drawdown of its balance sheet also known as quantitative tightening starting next month which is going to be in April so it's not QE but they're slowing down QT which is not the news we want but it's the news we want to need yes it's something like something right something like Batman right and I saw this reel in IG with really fancy animations they said that the bull run back in 2016 2020 COVID was possible because of QE during that time governments were printing a lot of money but this cycle when we had the pump towards our new all-time at 109 K we didn't have QE we were still in QT environment and the real the IG real that I saw posed the question that this this might not be even the bull run yet and what's the come in the next year is gonna be crazy is gonna be crazier they might think 500k Bitcoin we'll still stick with our target and think that 200k Bitcoin could be a potential all right it is a more realistic option but just remember that in the micro we are still in QT environment compared to the previous two bull runs which were in QE environment protolist is here says my guess is that QE will get front run priced in so don't wait for it to actually start but just before yeah which is why we're kind of preparing for that scenario namely with S S is actually a big I have a large position now in S and it looks like it really wants to fucking rip dude okay it's been holding the five the the 50 cent key level very very well and I've been monitoring its correlation with ETH and BTC and every time BTC and ETH had a dump it did dump but it's respecting the 50 cent key level very very well you can see liquidity void around 61 to 64 cent that could it looks like it very likely it could fill up in the next few days but this shit looks like it's going to rip and plus if you go to twitter you'll notice a lot of people have been bull posting s this is because uh sonic labs has already begun their kol marketing campaign especially in asia onboarding and paying regional kols to bull post s and whenever you see this happen you're like ah fuck she's a bunch of kol marketing but on the price action wise this looks really good it looks like it's going to rip again not financial advice but it's just I have a very large position now in S this is that one play are you paid by S no I'm not okay I would like to but yeah you can see so many people tweeting about S and they have very similar uh similar key points that they're making okay so this is one alt to look out for if you if you if you if you you're starting to sound like a chinese k-ol now if you if you it's interesting because we actually heard about s a long time ago yeah right from our uh ironically chinese inner circle yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah they've already begun their campaign yeah but uh but yeah interesting interesting exactly and usually before the big airdrop happens there's going to be another pump so the airdrop for s is in june so you've been farming the test net you've been farming the main net the first wave of the airdrop launch will be in june and i can expect uh not very sure but i can expect this is my bias yet again another human error is that we'll have another pump for s okay all right so btc eth right now looking all right so if we do get a uh if we do we actually have so much confluence in the current price action that we have right now we've rated this buy side liquidity we have also rated this supply zone that was created last weekend so what comes down today and tomorrow can actually be very key to what's going to happen this week for btc okay so it's still inside this range anything below 90k is still uncertainty for btc but what we do know is ever since the flush to 76k we've been making series of higher highs and higher lows okay uh monthly open level is hold on where did it go spaceman come up here monthly open is this green line at 84 309k what do you guys think do you think at least this month we'll have a close above 84 309 let us know because if we do it can be like a potential relief then april can see big greens yep it's uh seven days till the end of the month so yeah yeah portal is here he says time-based capitulation people are gonna get bored soon and tune out of crypto then we rip portal is here has been through many different many different been through previous cycles and he knows he's the og box mining viewer and he knows that the situation we're going through now is exactly what happened in the previous cycles okay all right let's also take this time to review uh opening range breakout strategy it's been doing very well uh i've just been forward testing it a lot right but uh last week i did get stopped out many different times and when you're going through that losing streak even with one percent risk you do get tilted okay okay you do get tilted you start questioning about your life so on so on so whenever you come to that scenario you like this strategy but some somehow it's not really working in your favor but you know that in your in your gut you know that this is a solid strategy for me this is that solid strategy opening range strategy what you do is you back test it so so far i've only uh gotten data from january 2025 soon i'll fill up the rest of february and this month and then keep tracking for the performance of 2025 or backtest i will also do another one for 2024 right now i'm just making a template filling the actual data doing it manually so that once so i can feed this exact template into our ai so that it knows what to replicate it knows what to look for and we'll hook up the api to trading view so that they can do that but this is what i'm talking about if three weeks ago when i came upon orb we're having we had results like this where it's always win and then you feel like yes you cracked the code to the market right but tell me what how are you handling the situation if you do come across a losing streak like this like okay so over here you can see that you won one yeah you lost one yeah you won again you won again you won again you won again you feel you felt like you cracked the code yeah and then basically what happened was you lost you lost and you have a few consecutive losses that basically ate up all your profits over here and so you're basically like oh shit is this really the is this really uh something that's sustainable here it is that is where uh risk reward comes in right yes even if you lose your one percent for your trades if you have a big wins here like with a three r plus right these can be profitable for you but the thing i want to draw attention to is the psychology the psychology rather rather than the pml okay so you're overall still profitable but it really is the psychology of losing again and again yes exactly because opening range breakout is high risk high reward you're reacting to what the market gives you in the opening session of a country right asia london new york and that's usually when it's super super volatile and you can capitalize on this uh but you can see here i marked out different cases now mind you okay just a bit of context here this is only for market order entry price so like this right let's see what time did asia start again today where did it go sessions so it's like this this is assuming only one rule where you market order on the breakout right okay so asia opened here and then range low here okay tokyo let's close this one let's also get rid of this okay so we had a breakout above so let's assume it's bullish for the day right but it looks like it didn't it stopped out here and this is usually the case where oh look at that it's actually true deviation then resume on the actual trend which i've marked down here in the comments for a lot of the uh performance reversal yeah deviation reversal where where are the cases yeah deviation above range high deviation above range low but what did you notice forward testing this is that the first breakout the first breakout is often true for the day whatever reversal happens is usually a deviation i'd say about like 70 or 80 percent of the time uh and then i marked out here which one is our actual full reversal so we'll get into this when i get the full set of data but what's very interesting right i'm just only using one set of rule which is open a market order on the breakout candle so today we had a uh uh breakout to the upside so assuming market order here then you place your stop loss here and then at least target one r you know why i'm doing this because i am hoping to just feed this into a trading bot using these parameters to just like handle it for me okay because the thing about orb is they're trying to do is to take all this data and just feed it into a trading bot i know my trading parameters and the trading bot will trade for you exactly just based on you're making some high high frequency trading bot or something something like that but only one set of rules this does not take into account limit orders at the breakout range okay so here in this parameter i said retest success right because in some cases it never retests your range and it just rips high it just continues on right you miss out that all time that generation wealth that can be made for the day so that is also one factor and looking in uh at january's data it looks like a lot of retests have been happening by the way the win rate for january 2025 for only market ordering breakout candles of orb is 43 percent that's not bad right it's okay steph curry had what did you say again ron was like for only 43 and i told ron like hey it's not that bad yeah steph curry is one of the best nba players with uh best three point average uh-huh yeah his three point shot rate is 43 too exactly that changed my perspective i was like oh yeah it's actually not that bad it's not that bad right it's 43 the best shooter in nba history has 40 averaging like above 40 43 three point field gold percentage and having a 43 on purely market order entry on breakout candle is actually not bad yeah like you know uh my grades in school i got like a 43 out of 100 i tell my parents all the time it's not bad it's actually not bad bad you didn't get zero zero shoot or shoot shoot shoot bro right so very very interesting so uh let's see how this goes but this is super super interesting i still trade orb but because of the fucking losing streak last week i just need to back test this to make sure uh how can we anticipate reversals so i suggest you guys if you're really taking trading seriously you need to journal your live trades and then you need to have a separate journal for your back test i totally agree man i think the morning routine is important yeah it's essential to also dip your face in ice water agreed agreed morning routine bro everyone's talking about the morning routine guy this is the biggest meme now and it's actually the morning routine on salario it do be like this man look at this man dude hey wakes up at 3 53 a.m to do nothing until 10 a.m six hours of nothing he's gargling sparkling water dude this guy's on another level dude build different but yes from here uh it's important because you want to learn from your loss see what conditions in the market that actually led to that loss and how can you counteract from it in the future i counteract it from the future okay so uh certain conditions here show that the the original bias was actually correct let's see deviation indecisive market rounding bottom movement deviation above range high price stalled inside ob deviation below range low so otherwise if it was a limit order long it would have been a good win nearly wicked out sl see cases like these at this one on january 22 lose if not close one r pa reverse to sl then continue downward strong so yeah you can uh take a look at this plot this into your trading view and see what you can learn from it so this is what i'm doing right now primarily this is adding to our ever-growing alpha um airdrop channel but our biggest baby is still the air droplet okay she's a bit of side project for me yeah crypto traverses trading seems so hard it is dude it is uh it's actually hard once you like start really learning about it it's if you don't know what's going on it's overwhelming it's different like uh how do you say this trading is like it sounds like cliche but it's really uh a journey of your of oneself you're learning about yourself would you say it's just a skill like any other skill it is a skill yes uh just know that the aha moment for me was trading is just all about picking an entry model that makes sense to you then you stick to that entry model trading one pair only and only stick to that rule and then from the losses you learn from those losses of that entry model and how can you avoid that in the future so we have that part done but the next part i didn't figure out yet is how can we anticipate these events where we lost and just use that to our advantage yeah right so very very good all right let's answer some questions let's see oh my god btc pumping the 86 three nice looking very good yeah that's great what's up everyone hey it's nice to see everyone over here i hope everyone's doing well chris says what's up ron martin what's up hey let's get it uh we have brian nunez we have samuel who says can i get mon testnet tokens yes just dme i got you for sure samuel we got you man what's up xeno amp vlogs is here what's up protolisk how's it going cme gap bro keiko is here too hey gabby is here it's been a while gabby how you doing well what's up john presto um let's see but yeah oh let's see are we able to determine the initial price of wall yeah the pre-market recently was like 40 cents but you can just look at the pre-market wall pre-market not that walrus peanut bot or there's another platform as well why is 21 the okay but there there's your reference gabby says i don't know bro 2025 should be top year my guy but who knows i say no we're not even in the bull run yet it's not even in the bull run yet bro like like like like like like like like like like like like like like is that copium speaking but just think about it that ig real made me realize oh yeah we had those bull runs because of qe feds were printing money we had this bull run even during qt and now that the feds are saying that they're they're slowing qt not exactly qe but they're slowing down qt can be like a sign from the universe oh love of my life is yeah that's that's bullish that's bullish things to keep in mind also guys i think it the if you are like really worrying about your altcoin bags your crypto portfolio and this is purely to the investors not the traders and you're just worrying and checking your wallets every single day i feel like uh you're probably over invested right the reality is i don't think there's any other financial asset that can give you returns like crypto you just need a longer timeline a longer time horizon so whether it's 2025 where we're gonna see top of the market peak bull run top prices things like that or 2028 2030 like it's really the long game and uh yeah just keep dcaing yeah conviction conviction conviction conviction bitcoin having profit where are we at right now i'm sure gonna one day all right we're midway of the having cycle it's not even popping up hello very laggy but let's see dude let's see april could go crazy could go okay go brr all right you guys know what to do smash up the like button subscribe to the channel my name is ron martin