The Old Playbook Is Broken

For years, the crypto community has lived and died by one sacred chart: the Bitcoin halving cycle.
Every four years like clockwork — 2013, 2017, 2021 — Bitcoin has delivered an explosive bull market that peaked roughly 12–18 months after the halving, followed by an 80–85% bear market the next year.
So with the April 2024 halving now 20 months behind us, and Bitcoin trading well off its all-time high after a sharp 35–40% correction, the chorus is getting louder:

“It’s over. The blow-off top was late 2024 or early 2025. 2026 will be the bear market year. History rhymes.”

That narrative feels comfortable because it has worked three times in a row.
But this time, the 4-year halving cycle is no longer the dominant force driving Bitcoin’s price. In fact, it may be almost irrelevant. Here’s why.

1. The 4-Year Cycle Was Never Really About the Halving

The halving reduces Bitcoin’s new supply issuance by 50% every ~4 years. That is real.
What is not real is the idea that this mechanical event alone has been the primary driver of the mega-cycles.

Look at the actual history through a macro lens:

• 2011–2013 bull → coincided with the post-GFC global reflation (U.S. QE2/QE3 + China’s 4-trillion-yuan stimulus)
• 2015–2017 bull → coincided with China’s second giant property and credit reflation after the 2015 stock-market crash
• 2019–2021 bull → coincided with the largest synchronized fiscal + monetary stimulus in recorded history (COVID)

In every single case, the halving happened to land at roughly the same time as a once-in-a-decade global liquidity tsunami. The halving became the convenient story, but the true rocket fuel was always newly created dollars, yuan, yen, and euros chasing risk assets.

When you detach the price history from the halving calendar and overlay it instead on global central-bank balance sheets and fiscal deficits, a very different pattern emerges: Bitcoin (and risk assets in general) go parabolic when liquidity is expanding aggressively, and they crash when liquidity contracts.

2. The 2023–2025 Bull Was Not Driven by the Upcoming Halving Either

Most people assume the current cycle began because markets started “pricing in” the 2024 halving.
That’s not what actually happened.

The real trigger was U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s deliberate engineering of the Reverse Repo Facility (RRP) drain. From its peak of $2.55 trillion in 2022, the RRP was systematically guided toward zero over ~24 months (Sept 2023 → early 2026). Every dollar leaving the RRP became fresh liquidity available to chase stocks, gold, real estate — and crypto.

That engineered RRP drain acted as stealth quantitative easing while the Fed was still officially tightening. It is the primary reason every risk asset on earth began marching higher in Q4 2023 — not halving anticipation.

3. Global Liquidity Is About to Re-Accelerate — Not Contract

Here is where the old 4-year script completely breaks down.

In past cycles, the year after the post-halving peak was always characterized by tightening financial conditions:

• 2014 → China deleveraging + Fed ending QE
• 2018 → Fed QT + China supply-side reform
• 2022 → most aggressive Fed hiking cycle in 40 years

2026–2028 is shaping up to be the opposite.

• United States: Mid-term elections in 2026 will force both parties to deliver fiscal “goodies.” The incoming administration has already signaled aggressive use of deficit spending (infrastructure, AI build-out, energy dominance). Political pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep credit cheap will be extreme.
• China: Authorities are actively fighting property deflation and youth unemployment. More stimulus is already being rolled out, with larger packages widely expected if housing continues to weaken.
• Japan: The new government just passed the largest supplementary budget since Abenomics.
• Europe: Rearmament and energy-transition spending are set to explode deficit spending across the continent.

In other words, almost every major economy on earth has powerful domestic reasons to turn the money printer back on in 2025–2027. There is no global tightening regime waiting in the wings like there was in previous post-peak years.

4. Bitcoin Has Become the Purest Liquidity Barometer

Because Bitcoin is the most liquid, 24/7, globally traded risk asset with virtually no fundamental cash flows to anchor its valuation, it has evolved into the world’s most sensitive “smoke alarm” for changes in dollar liquidity.

The sharp October–November 2025 correction from ~$125k to the low $80k region was Bitcoin front-running a temporary liquidity squeeze (end of aggressive RRP drain + brief government shutdown fears). Traditional markets have not yet fully priced that squeeze — meaning either:
(a) stocks catch down and force an immediate policy response (rate cuts + fiscal stimulus), or
(b) the squeeze proves transitory and everything rips higher again.

Either path is bullish for Bitcoin over a 12–24 month horizon. Neither path resembles the multi-year liquidity contraction that defined previous bear markets.

5. Positioning and Psychology Still Look Early

Retail participation is high, but institutional allocation to crypto remains astonishingly low outside of a few spot ETFs. Leverage in the system, while elevated, is nowhere near the euphoric levels seen at true cycle tops (e.g., 2021’s 100x+ perpetual futures or 2017’s ICO mania).

When the next undeniable wave of global stimulus hits, the amount of capital still sitting on the sidelines is enormous.

The Bottom Line

The Bitcoin 4-year halving cycle was always a correlation masquerading as causation. Strip away the coincidence with past liquidity cycles, and the halving’s supply impact becomes just one input among many — and a relatively minor one at that when central banks and governments are prepared to create trillions of new currency units.

This time, the macro backdrop is not pointing to a classic post-halving peak and multi-year bear market in 2026–2027. It is pointing to a multi-year extension of the risk-asset bull market, fueled by fiscal dominance and competitive currency debasement.

The real parabolic phase — the one people will later look back on and say “that was the actual mania” — may still be in front of us, not in the rear-view mirror.